This would make me VERY happy.
Business Time: Final Mock
Business Time: Final Mock
Evan Silva
The top pick in the 2009 NFL Draft could be revealed any hour now. The Lions are actively negotiating with
Matthew Stafford,
Jason Smith, and
Aaron Curry. GM Martin Mayhew's preference is to sign Stafford and take him first, but agent Tom Condon always drives a hard bargain. Condon negotiated
Matt Ryan's six-year, $72 million contract last spring and that's merely a baseline. Ryan was the third overall pick. Stafford will receive at least $75 million over six seasons, with upwards of $40 million guaranteed.
Three years ago FOXSports' Jay Glazer broke the news 16 hours before the draft that the Texans would sign
Mario Williams to a contract making him the No. 1 pick. Skip 2007's
JaMarcus Russell disaster and it was Glazer again reporting
Jake Long's deal four days before the draft. Can Glazer make it a three-peat with the Lions and Stafford?
1. Lions - Georgia QB Matthew Stafford
All signs still point to Stafford going first, most notably club president
Tom Lewand's suggestive comments at the Lions' logo unveiling Monday. Stafford's powerful arm is a perfect fit for new coordinator Scott Linehan's vertical offense and
Calvin Johnson's deep threat ability.
2. Rams - Baylor LT Jason Smith
GM Bill Devaney likes
Eugene Monroe, but Smith's cleaner health record has him higher on most draft boards. A recent
survey of 19 scouts also confirmed that Smith is considered the stronger pick. St. Louis can't enter Week 1 with
Alex Barron on injury-prone
Marc Bulger's blind side.
3. Chiefs - Boston College NT B.J. Raji
KC will field calls from the Redskins and others about this pick's availability, but it's rare for teams to trade into the top five. Now that a report Raji failed his Combine drug test
has been proved false, GM Scott Pioli can feel comfortable drafting his next
Vince Wilfork.
4. Seahawks - USC QB Mark Sanchez
Matt Hasselbeck is going on 34 and the new Seattle staff admits his health is a concern. He missed nine games last year with a bulging disk in his back. The
most accurate QB in this draft, Sanchez is a great fit for coordinator Greg Knapp's precision-based offense.
5. Browns - Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree
Cleveland is
said to have narrowed its choices to Crabtree and Sanchez. With Sanchez unlikely to be available, a
Braylon Edwards trade looming, and
Donte' Stallworth doubtful to play football in 2009, the Browns can maintain offensive respectability with the draft's best receiver.
6. Bengals - Virginia LT Eugene Monroe
Monroe may be the best draft-eligible tackle, but shaky knees are
expected to limit how high he's taken. He missed two games as a junior with a knee injury and dislocated his kneecap as a sophomore. Still, the Bengals are desperate to replace overpriced, underperforming LT
Levi Jones.
7. Raiders - Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey
Oakland got just 82 receptions from its 2008 receiver corps and lacks a weapon capable of threatening defenses deep. Measurables-obsessed owner Al Davis won't necessarily see Heyward-Bey as a top-ten reach due to his sensational size-speed combination.
8. Jaguars - Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry
There is
mounting belief that Curry won't be drafted as early as the media projects. Historically, non-rush linebackers rarely go in the top five. GM Gene Smith remains committed to the best player available, though, and Curry is it here. He could start in the middle or on the strong side in Jacksonville.
9. Packers - Penn State DE Aaron Maybin
Transitioning to a 3-4 defense, Green Bay can get by with big bodies
Ryan Pickett (6'2/322),
Johnny Jolly, Jr. (6'3/312),
Cullen Jenkins (6'2/302), and
Justin Harrell (6'4/310) on the line. They have
no one capable of playing outside linebacker in the new scheme. Maybin led the Big Ten in sacks last season.
10. 49ers - Alabama OL Andre Smith
Reporters from the Santa Rosa Press Democrat and San Francisco Chronicle have beaten the drum that Smith's messy offseason since the Sugar Bowl isn't enough to get him past No. 10. Smith would give Mike Singletary
at strong-side tackle.
11. Bills - Ole Miss LT Michael Oher
The Bills are looking hard at defensive ends while
shopping LE Chris Kelsay, but it would be a crime for GM Russ Brandon to pass on a franchise left tackle after trading
Jason Peters. There is a
perception around the league that Brandon got fleeced in that deal.
12. Broncos - Florida State DE Everette Brown
Denver has some interesting OLB candidates (
Elvis Dumervil,
Jarvis Moss,
Darrell Reid) on the roster, but none with experience there.
than all of the above and at 6'2/256 is ideally built to play weak-side rush 'backer in Mike Nolan's 3-4 defense. Broncos GM Brian Xanders is also an FSU alum.
13. Redskins - Texas DE Brian Orakpo
3-4 teams seem to be souring on Orakpo. He was rarely asked to cover by Mack Brown and may be too stiff to rush with his hand up. The Redskins' interest level is high, however, and owner Dan Snyder prefers Orakpo's big name and history of production to Robert Ayers'. Orakpo would fill the need at left end Jason Taylor couldn't.
14. Saints - Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins
The Saints' interest in
Chris Wells smacks of smokescreen, particularly in light of the latest
news about Beanie's foot problems. Free agent signee
Darren Sharper is best utilized as a reserve entering his mid-30s. Jenkins would convert to free safety, where he played on third downs as a college junior.
15. Texans - USC OLB Clay Matthews
Houston is solid at middle and weak-side linebacker with
DeMeco Ryans and
Xavier Adibi, but will be hard pressed to count on
Zach Diles, a former undrafted free agent coming off a fractured tibia. Matthews would line up behind LE
Antonio Smith and give offenses fits with the ability to rush or cover tight ends on the strong side.
16. Chargers - LSU DE Tyson Jackson
Several outlets have reported that the Chiefs are high on Jackson and
his stock is soaring, but he only recorded 4.5 sacks for Les Miles last season and needs to play in a strict 3-4. San Diego runs that system and has a hole opposite
Luis Castillo after losing
Igor Olshansky to Dallas.
17. Jets - Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin
The Jets talked up
David Clowney and
Brad Smith at pre-draft minicamps, but neither possesses Maclin's three-down receiver or return potential.
The Jets are also set to take
Leon Washington off punt returns and increase his offensive usage. Maclin would be an upgrade there over
Jim Leonhard.
18. Broncos (from Bears) - USC MLB Rey Maualuga
Declining 30-year-old ILB
Andra Davis isn't the answer next to
D.J. Williams for Mike Nolan's new 3-4 scheme. Nolan needs a thumper, and Maualuga is the top Ted linebacker available. Maualuga doesn't excel in pass coverage, but would instantly upgrade Denver's woeful run defense.
19. Bucs - Tennessee DE Robert Ayers
Tampa made no effort to retain free agent
Kevin Carter and has rotated misfits
Greg White and
Jimmy Wilkerson at left end during offseason camps. White is a liability against the run, while Wilkerson is a 'tweener tackle-end. Ayers is arguably the most complete DE in the draft.
20. Lions (from Dallas) - Connecticut LT William Beatty
The Lions appear to be approaching this draft like the Falcons a year ago, targeting their QB high and hoping to improve the lines later on. A premier athlete, Beatty would be Detroit's version of
Sam Baker and could push
Jeff Backus inside to guard with a strong training camp.
21. Eagles - Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno
After acquiring
Jason Peters, Philadelphia's goal is to come out of this draft with an every-down back and coach Andy Reid
has his sights set on Moreno. The Eagles might have to trade up to make sure they execute, but have the ammo with ten draft picks remaining.
22. Vikings - Arizona OT Eben Britton
The Vikes will consider receivers, but showed no urgency to upgrade there after whiffing on
T.J. Houshmandzadeh in free agency. The
greater need is at right tackle, and Britton is an excellent value at 22. Britton can also play the blind side and provides insurance for arrest-prone LT
Bryant McKinnie.
23. Patriots - Cincinnati DE/TE Connor Barwin
Barwin's amazing versatility will appeal to New England more than most teams. Capable of playing tight end, linebacker, and defensive end, Barwin is a logical replacement for
Mike Vrabel. The Pats will likely invest in multiple pass rushers this weekend.
24. Falcons - San Jose State DL Jarron Gilbert
Atlanta lost NT
Grady Jackson in free agency and would start undersized
Jonathan Babineaux and
Kindal Moorehead inside if the season began today. The Falcons can't count on
Trey Lewis, who's recovering from multiple knee operations. With rare size potential, Gilbert likely could bulk up to 6'6/320 and still cause havoc up the middle.
25. Dolphins - Utah CB Sean Smith
VP of football operations Bill Parcells believes in collecting size at all positions. Smith, easily the draft's biggest corner at 6'4/214, would compete with free agent signee
Eric Green to start at RCB. Green was benched in Arizona last year and there isn't a bigger need on Miami's roster.
26. Ravens - North Carolina WR Hakeem Nicks
Baltimore's top three receivers (
Derrick Mason,
Demetrius Williams, and
Mark Clayton) all enter contract years. Nicks caught flack for gaining weight before Pro Day, but it happened because
he was nursing an injury. He comes from a pro-style offense and is ready to start right now.
27. Colts - Ohio State RB Chris Wells
Indianapolis has set the stage to draft a tailback high.
Joseph Addai's durability is a serious concern and he lacks an NFL-caliber backup after
Dominic Rhodes got away. Wells would give the Colts a dangerous 1-2 punch when Addai is healthy and a 17-20 carry per game back if Addai goes down again.
28. Bills (from Eagles) - Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew
Pettigrew is a pro-ready blocker but with 4.8-4.9 speed, questions about his separate ability will likely keep him out of the top 20. Buffalo could still use help in the run game and over the middle in the pass game. Both
Terrell Owens and
Lee Evans are sideline-type vertical receivers.
29. Browns (Predicted trade from Giants) - Northern Illinois DE Larry English
Braylon Edwards-to-New York is the most anticipated and
likely draft-day trade. After tabbing Crabtree fifth, Cleveland would still be positioned to upgrade opposite
Kamerion Wimbley because several 3-4 OLB prospects will be values at the end of round one.
Clint Sintim,
Michael Johnson, and
Paul Kruger are possibilities, but English is the best bet.
30. Titans - Ole Miss DT Peria Jerry
Jerry was one of the nation's most productive interior defensive linemen last season, but his injury history has moved him down some boards. As a highly explosive up-field penetrator, however, Jerry would fit ideally into new defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil's one-gap scheme.
31. Cardinals - Connecticut RB Donald Brown
Arizona's top draft weekend priority is finding a complement for
Tim Hightower. Hightower would keep short-yardage and blitz-pickup responsibilities, with Brown adding homerun potential and an after-catch threat. The Cards could then release
Edgerrin James, saving $5M under the salary cap.
32. Steelers - Illinois CB Vontae Davis
Pittsburgh will consider Cs
Alex Mack and
Max Unger here, but Davis is the better value. And after losing
Bryant McFadden, cornerback is arguably the team's top need.
Deshea Townsend and
William Gay are in contract years and
Ike Taylor is only signed through 2010.
Just Missed: USC LB
Brian Cushing, Florida WR
Percy Harvin, Pittsburgh RB
LeSean McCoy, Ohio State MLB
James Laurinaitis, Rutgers WR
Kenny Britt, Missouri DT
Ziggy Hood, Utah DE
Paul Kruger, Kansas State QB
Josh Freeman, Wake Forest CB
Alphonso Smith, Connecticut CB
Darius Butler, California C
Alex Mack, Georgia Tech DE
Michael Johnson, Oregon C
Max Unger, Virginia OLB
Clint Sintim