09-22-2009, 04:55 PM
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#15
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Living Legend
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: chesapeake, va
Age: 61
Posts: 15,817
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Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTripp0012
Putting this analysis in layman's terms: if Zorn went to an extreme and took a knee on 4th down, giving the Rams the ball at the 3 yard line and saying, "betcha can't get a FG against our defense", he's actually got a better chance to win that way than to kick the FG (80% vs. 78%). Many coaches would have kicked in that situation, but you can do the math on it ... it's basically a free offensive play, and if you get a yard, the game is over.
If you run a questionable play like Zorn did, you aren't any worse off with them on the 4 yard line needing a FG, then with them on the 30 yard line following a kickoff, needing a TD. And that's not even considering that they could return the kickoff for a TD, and jump ahead right there.
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Now I know why I saw Zorn with a calculator before deciding to go for it on 4th down he was figuring out the odds on the sidelines. Good job.
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