Quote:
Originally Posted by Audi
1. Buster said David Carr is a good example of taking a QB before addressing the offensive line.
2. I asked if Mike Williams should have been taken instead.
3. You brought up Ferguson.
4. I said that was a bad example because there was no comparable quarterback rated as high as Ferguson.
5. Dirtbag said Leinart was the better prospect.
6. I cite Polian's commentary as to why that is probably not true.
7. After much-ado about what Polian meant, you finally say that Leinart is rated lower than Ferguson, which confirms what I said at point #4.
That's all there is to it. I can't help if you are having a disconnect and having one of your "Brees in a deep QB class" moments.
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Yes, Polian obviously knows what subjective probability is and you don't, i.e hypothetically, he believes the Rams have a 60% chance of taking Bradford and 40% chance of taking Suh after considering all the sources he can find. It's highly doubtful he'll be surprised if the 40% event occurs. He probably had a plan if either player were taken before he could. If they taken random scrub #01, then they'll be surprised.
Related to that is that you also continue to assume that the GMs are in consensus all the damn time even though it wouldn't make any sense to reveal all the cards to the other franchises.
Final draft order does not necessarily reflect the draft boards of each individual franchise's scouting department, it's the manifestation of individual teams' FO's making decisions on which of the top prospects who are all going to go somewhere in the first round to choose. It's highly likely some teams rated Pacman higher than Rogers and vice versa, for example.
And actually, the Texans did not have a perceived need at LT at the time because they chose Tony Boselli to be that guy in the expansion draft. Since the percecption was that they were set at LT, they took a QB. So, the "Carr was simply the BPA" premise is suspect at best. They thought they had their tackle at the time, but in actuality, they didn't.
Even so, there's no way to know how much of a gap Leinart really had with Ferguson or what other incentives were in play when weighing the BPA vs. need for the Jets. So yeah, I'll retract that the Jets clearly thought Ferguson was better than Leinart because it's damn hard to weight the BPA vs. need incentive. They chose the fix OL and see what Pennington, etc can do. Al Davis probably just didn't believe he had the ridiculous measurables he wanted, Buffalo had to see what they had in Losman, a first-rounder, and Millen believed Kitna would be the guy. I already dealt with San Fran and Green Bay earlier. Because these teams between the 4th and 10th pick didn't have a pressing incentive for drafting a QB, it's hard to judge the Leinart was soooo ZOMG worse that he fell off a cliff down to #10. 'Zona, on the other hand, did not view Warner to be nothing more than a true stopgap to hold the fort until "the future one" develops. Nothing Warner did in his stint with the Giants would hint of what would happen in the last couple of years.
Not my problem you can't frame a syllogism to save your life.