Commanders Post at The Warpath - View Single Post - 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)

GTripp0012 · 12-16-2011, 05:39 PM

The hit to bust rate is about two-thirds hits to one third busts for the years 2002-2007 for first rounders that aren't also top ten picks. That's just a back of the napkin calculation that I did.

To recap: about 80% hits for top ten players
about 65% hits for 11-32.

I'm going to do a value analysis to see if the chances of getting a "big time" player in the top ten are much better than those odds.

12-16-2011, 05:39 PM	#23
GTripp0012 Living Legend Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Evanston, IL Age: 37 Posts: 15,994	Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III) The hit to bust rate is about two-thirds hits to one third busts for the years 2002-2007 for first rounders that aren't also top ten picks. That's just a back of the napkin calculation that I did. To recap: about 80% hits for top ten players about 65% hits for 11-32. I'm going to do a value analysis to see if the chances of getting a "big time" player in the top ten are much better than those odds. __________________ according to a source with knowledge of the situation.