[mlmpetert]

Yeah i agree that Ron Paul as a third party may not necessarily spell an automatic win for Obama; like you said he will take a fair amount votes away from Obama too.

Also i was way off in my thinking about New Hampshire, i thought i saw something that showed Paul polling high in that state. Youre right in that Paul has little chance if any of taking New Hampshire.

Another thing i found out this morning i was wrong about (im up to 3) was my interpretation of caucuses vs. primaries. I thought primaries were open to all, but after i heard this morning about this "oath" thing VA republicans are going to ask of primary voters i found out some primaries are closed like caucuses. I think it may be like squares and rectangles; all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares…. So some primaries are closed or partly closed. Confusing, and im still not exactly sure. Heres a list of open, closed, or partly closed primaries (rectangles) for 2012:

Open or Closed Primary in Your State? ~ New World Radical

Also adding some excitement to this year’s election is the adoption of the democrat primary rules by the republicans. This basically ensures the primaries will be extended out until April and also adds in the possibility for a last minute candidate to step in. It makes it so delegates won in the primaries will be prorated instead of the winner take all (or most) type style we are used to. It also adds in the possibility of a “brokered convention”:

The New Republican Primary Rules Make It Possible For The Republican Establishment To Steal The Nomination From A Candidate They Don’t Like

One thing we keep hearing about Ron Paul (besides how he’s not a “conservative”….), is how well run his campaign is this go around. It seems to me money for the long haul and a well run campaign become much more important when delegates are largely awarded pro-rata and over time.

Republicans in the later states that have traditionally not really mattered before (like VA) don’t really vote in primaries, there has never been a point. This year the early states are much less important and the later states are much more important. This could heavily favor Paul who has a well funded and organized campaign, but more importantly a devote following. My thought is that Paul people will go vote, while non-Paul fans will stay home since they are not used to participating in their states’ traditionally pointless primary.

Interestingly the only state that wont proportionally award delegates will be Florida, which in a multi-front-runner race like we are currently in turns Florida into probably the most important state (damn, Marco Rubio could have won this thing if he wanted to). My guess is Paul’s anti- team America world police message wont resonate with the large older Jewish population, which like all old people love nothing more than voting in bloc. Well, except for early bird specials, the obituary column and matinees …..

I still don’t think Paul has a legit shot in getting the GOP nomination, but it all adds to the suspense of it being drawn out. Also a “brokered convention”, Ron Paul running as a third party, or Donald Trump running against Paul as a third party could all cause some major turmoil within in the GOP. Maybe that’s a good thing.

(also i dont frequent the websites posted above, they were just the only thing to pop up when searching primary rules)