Quote:
Originally Posted by Lotus
The length of career of all current players is definitely relevant. If, as just a thought experiment, we consider that every current player will have a career of 4 years or less (except for those who already have surpassed that mark), then the number of players enshrined plummets precipitously.
Your mathematical argument is somewhat circular - it presumes that current players will have longer careers than we have a right to expect them to. You need to reduce your estimate by the percentage of current players who won't have long enough careers.
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Lol your clearly confused, about what, I'm not entirely sure, so I'm going to try to explain it out.
How long the average player's career length is irrelevant. Think about it; lets say every NON-HOFer had a career length of 1 year, and the average length of a HOFer was 10 years. Lets say that there were 5 HOF inductees per year. How many HOF players (rookie, through 10 year vet) would there be in the NFL right now? 50.
Why 50? Its because every year there are 5 HOF inductees. Fastforward 10 years, we do this 10 times (once for each year), and 50 players get inducted.
Yes I know players don't get inducted immediately when they retire, but I oversimplified for the sake of this example...when they get inducted is irrelivant as long as they EVENTUALLY get inducted.