Quote:
Originally Posted by skinster
Lol your clearly confused, about what, I'm not entirely sure, so I'm going to try to explain it out.
How long the average player's career length is irrelevant. Think about it; lets say every NON-HOFer had a career length of 1 year, and the average length of a HOFer was 10 years. Lets say that there were 5 HOF inductees per year. How many HOF players (rookie, through 10 year vet) would there be in the NFL right now? 50.
Why 50? Its because every year there are 5 HOF inductees. Fastforward 10 years, we do this 10 times (once for each year), and 50 players get inducted.
Yes I know players don't get inducted immediately when they retire, but I oversimplified for the sake of this example...when they get inducted is irrelivant as long as they EVENTUALLY get inducted.
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You continue to make the same mathematical mistake. My point is pretty simple.
If every player with less than, say, 10 years experience were to retire right now, none of them likely would make the HoF because they would not have long enough careers. And this would tremendously diminish the numbers of prospective HoFers who are in the NFL right now (which is the heart of your claim), thus tremendously reducing your estimate. Therefore you MUST take into account ALL players in your math.
You keep mathematically presuming what you are trying to prove so your math works out wrong.