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Originally Posted by ethat001
I'm in support of the Alex Smith deal and hopeful, since he was quasi-elite or at least top 10 last year, and the Brady's / Brees's have lasted until age 40 recently. Also we probably had no real chance to sign KC. But by history you can see above link over a LOT of QBs reviewed, that the performance declines dramatically every year age>33... Crossing my fingers this $40 million was worth it..
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The only thing I would argue on his approach is the sampling for qbs.
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The first step in trying to measure the aging patterns of quarterbacks is to figure out a sample to analyze. I decided to look at all quarterbacks who entered the league since 1970 and have since retired. I further limited my sample to quarterbacks who had at least three seasons of above-average play based on this system. That brought us to a group of 77 quarterbacks, from quarterbacks like Jon Kitna, Jay Fiedler, and Dan Pastorini to Hall of Famers like Joe Montana, Brett Favre, and Dan Marino.
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The protection rules have changed dramatically for qb's from 1977 to present, and his sample doesn't really account for that. I think we are seeing more and more qb's play longer, and at higher skills, because they don't take the same beating week after week.