[JoeRedskin]

I just don't know. A lot hinges on three questions:

1. How well will AP hold up over 16 games? Does he really still have the talent and enough gas left in the tank to be a bell-cow runner?

Sure, his brief preseason performance was encouraging but ... it was preseason ... and he is 33 with lots of wear and tear.

2. Is Gruden the essential element to the passing game's past success and, now with KC gone, does the passing game improve because we are rid of his limitations? OR ... Was it really KC making the most of a limited scheme and equally limited receiving talent? OR ... was it something of both?

I tend to believe it was the first of the three options but acknowledge it could easily be the third (if it is the second, color me shocked). If the first, this offense could explode, but, if the third, then we could be in for more mediocrity.

3. Did we solve the run defense?

Okay, I admit, to me, this is the biggee. In Allen and Payne, it sure looks like we have a couple of super-studs. They simply look the part of run-stoppers and, based on a couple of statements they have made, they seem to have the mentality for it as well. Throw in Ionaidis, and you have three big, strong, young guys who, on paper at least, look like a f'ing stone wall.

However, one is a rookie, another is a year removed from missing most of his rookie year, and the last is only in his third year. If the D, and particularly the D-line, turns out to be a studly run stopping machine, we are in really, really good shape to make a long run into the playoffs. If not, again, mediocrity beckons.

At the end of the day, I think that: (1) AP does not have the juice; (2) Gruden was the essential element of our passing game; and (3) we still get run on with regularity.

In light of that, I think we end up either 7-9 or 8-8.