Redskins v Ravens Offensive GT Review: Skins lose turnover battle, game

[GTripp0012]

For the first time this year, the Redskins threw to 3 different wide receivers 5 or more times each. The interesting trend here is that the Redskins also used fullback Mike Sellers more than they had at any point this year. So if Jim Zorn is moving away from the 3 WR sets and toward the more power oriented I backfield, why exactly are more passes going towards our third wideout than at any point this year?

Football is a game of matchups. And most teams cannot match up with Chris Cooley over the middle of the field. But the Ravens absolutely made him the focal point of the passing defense, and took him away. That means that Jason Campbell's most favorable matchups were elsewhere, particularly with the slot receivers. And that's why it's difficult for me to come back to you and report that Moss, Randle El, and Devin Thomas all had rather forgettable days.

The good news is that Devin Thomas is clearly improving. He's moved out of totally "useless rookie" category, and into "high draft pick with unfulfilled potential" territory. Ravens CB Samari Rolle may not have much left in the tank, but he at one point in his career was considered a shutdown corner, and Devin held his own in the matchup. In five targets, he made three catches, and one of the incompletions was a pass that was tipped at the line and had his trajectory changed. But it was the other incompletion, a miscommunication between him and Jason Campbell, that has dogged his season into becoming a very forgettable one.

Pass Offense

Vital Statistics
Total adj yards = 187
Yards per play = 4.68
Success rate = 40% (16/40)

The notion that the Redskins simply cannot generate offense without a consistent running game is a total myth. For the second straight week, the running game was a non factor against a stingy run defense, and the Redskins tore off chunks of yards in the passing game consistently. The Redskins had 5 plays of 15+ yards against the Ravens defense, (25, 23, 19, 18, 17) and were the first team in 4 weeks to score a touchdown on them. Here's how you know the Zorn offense works: those chunks of yardage were generated by 5 different Redskins. (Moss, Betts, Portis, Devin Thomas, Randle El respectively). On top of this, the Redskins offense had plenty more room to make plays against this defense, but missed a few opportunities on well-thrown, well-covered fade balls.

What is not a myth, is the fact that the Redskins passing offense cannot sustain itself without help from the running game. We look at those big plays, and get really excited about what this team can do, but then we realize that there were 18 separate occasions in Baltimore in which a passing play for the Redskins was incomplete, or otherwise generated negative yardage. This number is too high. The Redskins had 16 successful plays through the air, but 18 that weren't only unsuccessful, but ended up being wasted downs at best, or drive killing plays at worst. The Redskins need more plays like the other six unsuccessful ones: plays that go forward instead of backwards, and put pressure on the defense to stop you rather than doing the defenses job for them.

This is where having Santana Moss as a number one receiver really kills you. For a guy with his raw vertical speed you would figure that opponents would respect his ability to drive them off the ball more than they do. But when Moss wants to run a short route, every CB he lines up against reads it right away. He'll get open underneath against very, very soft coverages, but Zorn likes the three step drop short passing game, and he keeps putting Moss as the split end*

*Quick passing offense lesson here. In an I formation, the split end goes to the opposite side as the tight end. This gives him more room to work in the short passing game because the linebackers are often caught further inside than they are on the slot side. Against MOST coverage, a QB's pre-snap read will indicate that he should go to the split end with the pass.

Only Moss never really drives off the coverage on these shorter routes. Corners always seem to get to him before the ball gets there. I think he might be telegraphing his routes. In any event, Jason Campbell has to go to his second, or his third read to get the ball to an open man. This should never happen. Moss is effective on longer developing routes, but those aren't the problem in this offense. It's the shorter developing safer routes that aren't working.

Receivers
(Targeted, Completed, SR, YPA)

Antwaan Randle El - 8, 5, 50%, 5.63
Santana Moss - 7, 4, 57%, 6.86
Devin Thomas - 5, 3, 40%, 5.2
Clinton Portis - 4, 3, 25%, 3.75
Ladell Betts - 3, 2, 33%, 10.0
Chris Cooley - 2, 1, 50%, 6.0
Mike Sellers - 2, 2, 50%, 7.5

The Redskins got good production from their backs in the receiving game, which made up for the fact that Cooley was taken away. I think you can argue that against the Baltimore Ravens defense, the receivers did better than expected. That may be true, but Baltimore is a team without a shutdown corner. The stats say that all of our top three receivers did very average. Thusly, we had a very average passing game against a very good defense. I think this same effort is all we really need, but we still have to do something about the consistency factor. If your BEST receiver is going to produce a 57% success rate, then you need to run the ball more than the Redskins did. 57% is above average for Moss (season ave=49%), and above the league average for a wideout (54%), but unless you are a long TD pass or two, it's still a win for the defense if they are selling out to stop the run (which is not really what Baltimore was doing, but the Giants certainly were).

One person that shoulders little to no blame in all this is Jason Campbell. His one big mistake in the game was throwing that pass that Ed Reed intercepted, but the Redskins were already trailing by 2 TDs inside of two minutes to play, so the fact that the ball needed to go down the field is not Campbell's fault. Campbell could have been intercepted 4 or 5 times in this one if he was less careful with the ball, but was seeing the field really well, and made numerous clutch throws right before getting hit hard. People are going to look at the score of the Steelers game, and of the Ravens game and think that Campbell hasn't improved, but it's completely night and day. Jason Campbell really came to play against a great defense, and the stats bear that out.

And as non-helpful as the receivers were to Campbell on this day, they can not be held responsible for any of the three turnovers that cost the Redskins the game. That's on the guys who play on the interior.

Pass Protection

The Redskins had poor pass protection in this game. Not quite as bad as against Pittsburgh, but still pretty bad, as in that Jason Campbell might still have Suggs' #55 imprinted on him somewhere. However, the offensive line didn't really play that bad. The PROTECTION itself was poor. As Jim Zorn said at half, its a communication issue. Guys blocking no one, guys miscounting rushes, and guys just generally not being on the same page.

The blocking of the running backs is a big problem. We're talking about four man rushes against six guys in the protection, and NOT ONE RAVEN is getting double teamed. That means on most plays, at least two Redskin blockers are standing around doing nothing. usually, it's the back. Sometimes, it will be Rabach, or Thomas (not so much Rabach in this game). Jon Jansen has been doing a pretty darn good job, in my opinion, of one on one blocking against guys like Jarrett Johnson, Bart Scott, and Justin Tuck the last few weeks, but the Redskins are actually more likely to give Jason Campbell time to pass if the opponent blitzes. The Redskins are so afraid of a blitz that they won't go help each other in double teams to protect Campbell. This is (was) really killing Samuels against Suggs, who three or four times went right around the outside on him with the speed rush, and the back, Portis, Betts, or Sellers, they're just standing around watching this happen. This is not team football. This is not a cohesive unit between the OL and the RBs and TEs. This is embarrassing. Jim Zorn, Joe Bugel, and Stump Mitchell all have to shoulder some of the blame as well. Betts, Sellers, and Portis are all more than willing blockers, and stuff like this should not be happening this late in the year.

Samuels injury was a total freak play. He tore his right tricep while trying to reach and block Suggs...with his left arm. Just a run-of-the-mill sudden motion, and the muscle didn't hold up.

Pressure Chart

Samuels - 3 pressures, 1 hit (none of these pressure should have been allowed...he should have had help)
Sellers - 1 pressure, hit, sack
Yoder - 1 pressure (why do we keep doing this?!)
Randy Thomas - 1 pressure, hit
Stephon Heyer at RT - 1 pressure
Justin Geisinger at LT - 1 sack
Stephon Heyer at LT - 1 pressure
Pete Kendall - 1 pressure
Plus three DB fires that Campbell took care of by getting the ball out before the pressure got there.

When teams come with the blitz, we step up, hit them, and give Jason Campbell a second or two of a nice pocket to get the ball out. When they don't blitz, Campbell has no time to do anything. Thanks, protection schemes that can't stop the zone blitz.

When Heyer gets beat, he gets too high, and then driven back into the QB. Jansen is stronger in the lower body, but Heyer's handwork is really good for a second year guy. Heyer against the run is sort of an adventure though. On draw plays, he seems to trip over his own feet and allow pressure to cross his face. On zone plays away from him, he allows too many ends to run across his face. But on zone plays towards him, Heyer does a great job sealing the edge. He just seems more inexperienced than anything else.

Misc: Cooley was really struggling to block Terrell Suggs in the running game. Randy Thomas is mediocre against the pass, but he doesn't block anyone in the zone running game. He's a lot like Rabach: let him chase down a linebacker and you'll have a nice hole to run behind. Make him block a defensive lineman and he's going to be shed within two seconds.

Rush Offense

Vital Statistics
Total adj yards = 40
Yards per play = 2.0
Success rate = 30% (6/20)

Ultimately, I thought Zorn gave up on the run too early in the first half and early second. With that said, two of our first four second half drives were largely successful while throwing the football, and by the last drive, time was a decisive factor. So I'm okay with a 2:1 pass-run ratio against a defense like Baltimore.

Rushing Chart
(Runs, Successful runs, yards per carry average)
Clinton Portis - 11, 3, 2.91
Ladell Betts - 6, 2, 0.67
Mike Sellers - 2, 1, 8.0

Sellers, he does it all. I hope he's one of our pro bowl reps. I think he will be.

Overall Offense

Vital Statistics
Total adj yards = 227
Yards per play = 3.78
Success rate = (36.7%)

Too many negative plays in both the rushing and passing games to call this a successful day, but our offense outplayed their offense against a far better defense, so perhaps that's a small win. We have to eliminate the turnovers. We can't be letting teams get hits on the QB on deep passes, and Portis has to hold onto the football. In this league, that's the margin between winning and losing.

[MTK]

Good stuff as always Gtripp

[SouperMeister]

These are my favorite posts following each game. Thanks again for another thorough job. Regarding Santana tipping shorter routes, giving DBs a jump, I was wondering whether you see Campbell doing anything that may be giving the D a clue there. Just a thought.

[30gut]

First off, nice breakdown.

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

But when Moss wants to run a short route, every CB he lines up against reads it right away. He'll get open underneath against very, very soft coverages, but Zorn likes the three step drop short passing game,

Originally Posted by SouperMeister

Regarding Santana tipping shorter routes, giving DBs a jump, I was wondering whether you see Campbell doing anything that may be giving the D a clue there. Just a thought.

I don't think Moss or Cambell are tipping anything.
IMO defenses are tipped off by watching tape.
They know our fondness for the 3 step drop routes and that Moss is are main threat.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

First off, nice breakdown.





I don't think Moss or Cambell are tipping anything.
IMO defenses are tipped off by watching tape.
They know our fondness for the 3 step drop routes and that Moss is are main threat.

They certainly see a steady diet of three step drops on tape, but I still think Moss is tipping his route, because he can still run a fade, a slant, or a hitch/curl out of this passing series, but he's not open on ANY of it.

And the curls at the first-down marker, I mean yeah, defenses are not shocked by these routes, but still, you have to give yourself enough separation to make the catch. I feel like Moss can do this, but not with consistency like in 05, and 06 pre injury.

I would say the Moss we saw in September was a different and more effective player than the one we have seen recently.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SouperMeister

These are my favorite posts following each game. Thanks again for another thorough job. Regarding Santana tipping shorter routes, giving DBs a jump, I was wondering whether you see Campbell doing anything that may be giving the D a clue there. Just a thought.

I don't think Campbell is trying to disguise anything though. He stands straight up and looks at his first read. The coverage guy doesn't even look at Campbell, because if he does, it's already over.

The routes I'm talking about would be totally on Moss, if there was a problem at all.

Being perfectly honest, I would need to see the coaches tape to know if his routes were sloppy, or if he's just not catching the ball, or whatever, but what I can see on the television broadcast is that plays that go to Moss, even the well-designed ones, fail far too often. You can apply the same criteria to ARE and Cooley, and see that those plays are more successful.

ARE isnt even a deep threat, but he can get open in the three step drop game. Moss can only got open against ultra-soft coverage (like the first play of the game).

[30gut]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

he can still run a fade, a slant, or a hitch/curl out of this passing series, but he's not open on ANY of it...........I would say the Moss we saw in September was a different and more effective player than the one we have seen recently.

Yeah, Moss might not be full strength. Also i don't think corners repect Moss going deep because he doesn't do it that often anymore and the corners often have safety help which allows them to play Moss ultra aggressive on the underneath routes.

But, hopefully with more time Zorn/JC back the corners off with some intermediate and deep routes.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Yeah, Moss might not be full strength. Also i don't think corners repect Moss going deep because he doesn't do it that often anymore and the corners often have safety help which allows them to play Moss ultra aggressive on the underneath routes.

But, hopefully with more time Zorn/JC back the corners off with some intermediate and deep routes.

Kelly and Thomas both, one of the main things they've done right this year is display good route running skills, and the ability to get open. For a plethora of reasons, most of which has to do with rookie mistakes, this hasn't translated into production. But for the type of game Zorn likes to call, both of whom are a better fit than Moss.

Which isn't to say we don't need Moss in 3 WR sets. But that we should limit him to those sets, and certain plays out of 2 WR sets.

[hooskins]

Great stuff as usual, good to rational analysis in a sea of crap(noob posters). I see the points about performing well in pass w/o the run, but dont you think it is really important for us to establish the run first? Especially against teams like the Bengals, where we can just wear them down by going to PA-pass, since stopping the run and over-committing to it is their weakness?

ESPN - Week 15: Numbers Crunching - NFL

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by hooskins

Great stuff as usual, good to rational analysis in a sea of crap(noob posters). I see the points about performing well in pass w/o the run, but dont you think it is really important for us to establish the run first? Especially against teams like the Bengals, where we can just wear them down by going to PA-pass, since stopping the run and over-committing to it is their weakness?

ESPN - Week 15: Numbers Crunching - NFL

I don't think it's as important to establish the run early as it is to run effectively throughout the game. I think we would have beaten Baltimore if 1) obviously, we didn't turn the ball over, but 2) we had been able to run the ball with a moderate amount of success in the second half.

It's tough to run down 17-0, but the turnovers generated by the defense bailed us out. You aren't going to come back from that deficit without mistakes by the opposing offense, so I can say that Zorn played it correctly in the second half.

That decision to punt at the end of the first half down 14-0 was terrible though.

[skinsfan69]

Basically it looked like the same old offense. No creativity on offense, unable to sustain drives and a total lack of pass protection.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Basically it looked like the same old offense. No creativity on offense, unable to sustain drives and a total lack of pass protection.

A lot of times, when people say no creativity on offense, they just don't know what they are talking about. Since I believe you do know what you are talking about, what exactly do you mean? Lack of gadget plays? Not enough misdirection? Bad pass to run ratio? Poor use of deception plays, like draws, screens, and play action passes? Badly designed route combinations? A mixture or all of the above?

What exactly is the problem, in your opinion?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Kelly and Thomas both, one of the main things they've done right this year is display good route running skills, and the ability to get open. For a plethora of reasons, most of which has to do with rookie mistakes, this hasn't translated into production. But for the type of game Zorn likes to call, both of whom are a better fit than Moss.

Which isn't to say we don't need Moss in 3 WR sets. But that we should limit him to those sets, and certain plays out of 2 WR sets.

Why do you want to limit Moss in the base 2 WR/3 WR sets?

I don't think Moss problems getting open are due to poor route running (maybe a litte) nor do i think that the rookies or ARE are better route runners. IMO the source of the problem is that Moss often gets doubled.

At the begining of the year i was surprised when Zorn moved Moss to the X receiver, but it worked great until teams started doubling him.

Now i would like to see Devin@X and Moss@Z my reason is this:

1) Moss often draws double coverage, a corner playing tight underneath coverage with safety help up top, with Moss as the Z receiver he would bring his double with him and draw the attention of the strong side safety away from Cooley

2) As the Z receiver Moss would have a free release making it easier to get off press coverage (if he needs it)

3) This allow whoever plays the X receiver to reap the benefits traditional benefits of the position b/c they wouldn't face double like Moss


-btw good discussion

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Why do you want to limit Moss in the base 2 WR/3 WR sets?

I don't think Moss problems getting open are due to poor route running (maybe a litte) nor do i think that the rookies or ARE are better route runners. IMO the source of the problem is that Moss often gets doubled.

At the begining of the year i was surprised when Zorn moved Moss to the X receiver, but it worked great until teams started doubling him.

Now i would like to see Devin@X and Moss@Z my reason is this:

1) Moss often draws double coverage, a corner playing tight underneath coverage with safety help up top, with Moss as the Z receiver he would bring his double with him and draw the attention of the strong side safety away from Cooley

2) As the Z receiver Moss would have a free release making it easier to get off press coverage (if he needs it)

3) This allow whoever plays the X receiver to reap the benefits traditional benefits of the position b/c they wouldn't face double like Moss


-btw good discussion

When teams have the resources to do so, they do like to double Santana Moss, however, teams don't have enough players on the field to put 8 in the box AND put a safety over the top on Moss. Teams with a single safety against the Redskins will put him in the middle of the field. So while when Moss was hot, teams were scared enough of him to alter their gameplans, that's no longer really the case.

Randle El, obviously, will never be the guy who pulls the strong safety out of the box. He's a complimentary receiver, and a darn good one if the guy he's complimenting is feared. He's also exactly what this offense needs for it's second receiver, a guy who's very dependable on 3rd and 6. Whether he works out of the slot or the outside depends on the play.

Basically, this team needs Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas to be a Plaxico-type target, and show enough deep ability to pull a safety out of the box. I think Santana could be lethal out of the slot, but he's only valuable when he's not the guy who people expect to get the ball, which isn't the case right now.

Basically, I'm answering the question "If Kelly/Thomas becomes the number one target on the Redskins, who is the better complementary receiver: Moss or Randle El?" The answer is Randle El. But the question also implies that Kelly/Thomas become the player that we want Moss to be right now, that he simply is not.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

A lot of times, when people say no creativity on offense, they just don't know what they are talking about. Since I believe you do know what you are talking about, what exactly do you mean? Lack of gadget plays? Not enough misdirection? Bad pass to run ratio? Poor use of deception plays, like draws, screens, and play action passes? Badly designed route combinations? A mixture or all of the above?

What exactly is the problem, in your opinion?

If my offense totally sucks and can't score points I'm going to mix things up. Cause what we're doing isn't working. Now if I can sit here and name some things how come our coaches can't? It just baffles me. Anyway I'm going to do some of the following things.

1. Run Portis on some pass patterns and try and get him on a LB in space instead of simple check downs.
2. I'm going to have designed roll outs for JC.
3. I'm going to have some 2 TE sets with Davis and Cooley on the field at the same time.
4. I might try the wildcat a little bit and line Portis up in shotgun. Didn't Saunders do this in one game last year? I remember it cause it worked.
5. I'm going to throw deep on first dowm a little more.
6. I might have some formations where Betts and Portis and in the game at the same time.
7. I'm going to max protect some more on deep pass patterns so we can actually get the pass off. Even Chicago throws the ball downfield. They didn't complete any last night but they sure got some important PI's