Data Post #3...

[sportscurmudgeon]

There is plenty of sentiment here for Rex Grossman to be the Skins' QB come opening day of the 2011 season - - if there is a 2011 season. Many folks also seem to believe that his starting role should be accompanied by the acquisition of a young QB to be groomed for the future. So be it..

I have THREE data postings to place here on The Warpath.

There is no hidden agenda; these are data. I have no expectation that these data will make a significant impression on the folks who live on hopes and dreams. But data are data...

Drafting a QB in the later rounds for development

There is uncertainty associated with taking QBs in Rounds 1 and 2 of the NFL Draft. However, that uncertainty is nothing compared with what happens from Round 3 onward. Consider:


1999:

Brock Huard (3) - - wasted pick
Joe Germaine(4) - - wasted pick
Aaron Brooks (4) - - had limited success/value
Kevin Daft (5) - - wasted pick
Michael Bishop(7) - - wasted pick (but a success of sorts in Canada)
Chris Greisen(7) - - wasted pick
Scott Covington (7) - - wasted pick


2000 ( a good year in the later rounds!):

Giovanni Carmazzi (3) - - wasted pick
Tee Martin (5) - - wasted pick (I think he too played in Canada???)
Marc Bulger (6) - - great value pick; had several very good seasons
Spergeon Wynn(6) - - wasted pick
Tom Brady (6)- - the gold standard for low round QB selections here
Todd Husack(6) - - wasted pick
JaJuan Seider(6) - - wasted pick
Tim Rattay (7) - - wasted pick
Jarrious Jackson (7) - - wasted pick
Joe Hamilton (7) - - wasted pick


2001:

Chris Weinke (4) - - wasted pick
Sage Rosenfels (4) - - wasted pick (good clipboard holder)
Jesse Palmer (4) - - wasted pick
Mike McMahon (5) - - had a couple decent games in Detroit
AJ Feely (5) - - one good run of 5 games in Philly then below average
Josh Booty(6) - - wasted pick
Josh Heupel(6) - - wasted pick
Shaunard Harts (7) - - wasted pick


2002:

Josh McCown (3) - - made a few less than memorable starts
David Garrard (4) - - solid career/great value for a 4th round pick
Rohan Davey (4) - - wasted pick
Randy Fqassani (5) - - wasted pick
Kurt Kittner (5) - - wasted pick
Brandon Doman (5) - - wasted pick
Craig Nall (5) - - wasted pick
JT O' Sullivan(6) - - started a couple of games; not real impressive
Steve Bellisari (6) - - wasted pick
Seth Burford (7) - - wasted pick
Jeff Kelly(7) - - wasted pick
Wes Pate (7) - - wasted pick


2003:

Dave Ragone (3) - - wasted pick
Chris Simms (3) - - wasted pick perhaps due to serious injury
Seneca Wallace (4) - - backup QB material
Brian St. Pierre(5) - - wasted pick
Drew Henson (6) - - wasted pick
Brooks Bollinger (6) - - started a game or two as I recall
Kliff Klingsbury (6) - - wasted pick
Gibran Hamden (7) - - wasted pick
Ken Dorsey (7) - - wasted pick


2004:

Matt Schaub (3) - - good career; great value pick in 3rd round
Luke McCown(4) - - wasted pick
Craig Krenzel (5) - - wasted pick
Andy Hall (6) - - wasted pick
Josh Harris (6) - - wasted pick
Jim Sorgi (6) - - career clipboard holder
Jeff Smoker (6) -- wasted pick
John Navarre (7) - - wasted pick
Cody Pickett (7) - - wasted pick
Casey Bramlett (7) - - wasted pick
Matt Mauck (7) - - wsted pick
BJ Symons (7) - - wasted pick
Bradlee Van Pelt - - wasted pick (a Shanahan developmental in Denver)


2005:

Charlie Frye(3) - - wasted pick
Andrew Walter(3) - - had starts in Oakland; marginally successful
David Greene - - wasted pick
Kyle Orton (4) - - great value pick in 4th round
Stefan LeFors (4) - - wasted pick
Dan Orlovsky (5) - - career backup/emergency QB
Adrian McPherson (5) - - wasted pick
Derek Anderson (6) - - had one good year in Cleve; other than that...
James Killian (7) - - wasted pick
Matt Cassel(7) - - value pick in 7th round; had Tom Brady ahead of him in NE
Ryan Fitzpatrick(7) - - perhaps a value pick in 7th round


2006:

Tarvaris Jackson (3) - - not really a wasted pick but not a good one either
Charlie Whitehurst(3) - - did not look good in first starts this year
Brody Croyle (3) - - ten starts in NFL and ten losses
Brad Smith (4) - - good player but not as a QB
Ingle Martin (5) - - wasted pick
Omar Jacobs (5) - - wasted pick
Reggie McNeil (6) - - wasted pick
Bruce Gradkowski (6) - - not a wasted pick but not a great pick either
DJ Shockley (7) - - wasted pick


2007:

Trent Edwards (3) - - played a bit in Buffalo now in UFL
Isaiah Stanback (3) - - wasted pick
Jeff Rowe (5) - - wasted pick
Troy Smith (5) - - played a bit for the 49ers this year; so-so
Jordan Palmer(6) - - backs up his big brother
Tyler Thigpen - - has played a bit with little success


2008:

Kevin O'Connell(3) - - wasted pick
John David Booty (5) - - wasted pick
Dennis Dixon (5) - - wasted pick
Josh Johnson (5) - - backing up Josh Freeman in Tampa; may work out
Erik Ainge (5) - - wasted pick
Colt Brennan (6) - - wasted pick or Hall of Fame QB in waiting
Andre Woodson (6) - - wasted pick
Matt Flynn (7) - - first start last Monday; won't leapfrog Aaron Rodgers
Alex Brink (7) - - wasted pick


2009:

Stephen McGee (4)- - has not played yet
Rhett Bomar (5) - - now on the Vikes' practice squad
Nate Davis (5) - - wasted pick
Tom Brandstater(6) - -Dolphins' practice squad (a Shanahan developmental)
Mike Teel (6) - - wasted pick
Keith Null (6) - - backup for Panthers
Curtis Painter (6) - - backup for Peyton Manning


2010:

Colt McCoy (3) - - good showings in 4 games this year
Mike Kafka (4) - - behind Mike Vick and Kevin Kolb
John Skelton (5) - - one very bad start this year
Jonathon Crompton (5) - - Pats' practice squad
Rusty Smith (6) - - one very bad start this year
Dan LeFevour (6) - - Bengals' emergency QB
Tony Pike (6) - - injured
Levi Brown (7) - - Bills' emergency QB
Sean Canfield (7) - - wasted pick
Zac Robinson (7) - - Lions' emergency QB
Max Hall (UFA) - - only UFA in last 11 years to start an NFL game.


These data show that one can find real gems in the low rounds of the NFL draft. Tom Brady and Matt Cassell - - both drafted by Bill Belichick by the way - - show that there is ore in that vein.

Nevertheless, the odds against coming up with a starter from the QBs available here are stiff odds indeed.

If tempted to become euphoric over a low-round pick, check this list to see how many other QBs in the last dozen years came out of college to be taken in later rounds and who went on to do nothing.

It's just data, folks...

[SkinzWin]

2011:

Kellen Moore (11) - - great value pick in x round

[Paintrain]

SC, very interesting data.. 4 QB drafted after the 3rd round since '99 (excluding Romo who was undrafted) have developed into solid or better starters in the league. A good note to keep in mind for the 'draft a project and develop him' crowd.

[30gut]

Another interesting way to look at QBs is to look at coaches.
Coaches that know the passing game have success with all types of QB 1st round, mid-round, UDFA doesn't matter.

I bet if you look at the track record of those especially WCO coaches its would be far better then the rest of the league regardless of where the pick.
Bill Walsh
Mike Holmgren
Andy Reid
Norv Turner
Sean Peyton

[scott.sharrer]

Originally Posted by sportscurmudgeon

2008:


Dennis Dixon (5) - - wasted pick

I have to disagree 110% on this one. How can you say he was a wasted pick when he came in when Ben got suspended and WON 75% of his starts? The entire Pittsburgh Offense were singing his praise after each of those games, and the game he started this season and lost, he teammates stood up and said they were to blame and that he was not at fault in any way.

If given the entire preseason to prepare as the starting QB, with a good team around him, he can do some real good. Don't count him out at all. He is going to come back and bite Pittsburgh in the @$$ when he leaves, becomes a starter and wipes the turf with their D.

[GhettoDogAllStars]

Originally Posted by scott.sharrer

I have to disagree 110% on this one. How can you say he was a wasted pick when he came in when Ben got suspended and WON 75% of his starts? The entire Pittsburgh Offense were singing his praise after each of those games, and the game he started this season and lost, he teammates stood up and said they were to blame and that he was not at fault in any way.

If given the entire preseason to prepare as the starting QB, with a good team around him, he can do some real good. Don't count him out at all. He is going to come back and bite Pittsburgh in the @$$ when he leaves, becomes a starter and wipes the turf with their D.

Ducks fan?

[freddyg12]

First off, thanks for posting all this, it's interesting to look over & I know took some time. If your point is that the team doesn't face great odds in finding a gem qb in rounds 3-7, I fully agree.

I think what needs to be compared is the % of QBs that pan out (as defined roughly the way you have it above) v. all players in these rounds. i.e. is the QB position more difficult than others to have draft sucess w/in these rounds? I would guess that it is but maybe not as great a margin as we think. The success rate of rounds 3-7 is much lower than 1-2 for all players. For every starter that's a 5th round pick, there are 10 guys taken in that same year & round wishing they had taken college more seriously.

[Jontrem]

Interesting material, even if you are being a debby downer for some peoples hopes! You also didnt say weather Flynn was a wasted pick? Im curious on your toughts on that one.

[scott.sharrer]

Originally Posted by GhettoDogAllStars

Ducks fan?

Nope a Nittany Lions fan. I live in Erie PA though so I see and hear alot about the steelers. A healthy Dennis Dixon is a top 15 QB in the league.

[sportscurmudgeon]

Originally Posted by Jontrem

Interesting material, even if you are being a debby downer for some peoples hopes! You also didnt say weather Flynn was a wasted pick? Im curious on your toughts on that one.

Honestly, I was trying not to be a Debbie Downer at all. Those are merely data points that team management and fans need to be aware of.


Based on the one full NFL game I saw Flynn play (against the Pats last weekend), I would say he played well enough to put himself on the radars of other teams in the league who might want a young QB when he hits the open market or who might be willing to offer the Pack a pick or two for a young QB. That does not mean I am convinced after one game that he is a bona fide starter in the NFL, but his stock definitely went up.


As I said above, with Aaron Rodgers in front of him, he is not going to be the Green Bay starter any time soon absent an injury situation.

[sportscurmudgeon]

Originally Posted by scott.sharrer

I have to disagree 110% on this one. How can you say he was a wasted pick when he came in when Ben got suspended and WON 75% of his starts? The entire Pittsburgh Offense were singing his praise after each of those games, and the game he started this season and lost, he teammates stood up and said they were to blame and that he was not at fault in any way.

If given the entire preseason to prepare as the starting QB, with a good team around him, he can do some real good. Don't count him out at all. He is going to come back and bite Pittsburgh in the @$$ when he leaves, becomes a starter and wipes the turf with their D.

I was not nearly as impressed with Dixon as you obviously were. I think the Steelers won by running the ball and playing defense and not by any amazing quarterbacking.

Maybe he will develop into a good NFL QB. If he does, then he was a steal in the 5th round. Problem is that unless Big Ben is out of the picture, Dixon is not likely to be a major contributor to the team that drafted him - - sort of like Matt Cassel in New England.

[sportscurmudgeon]

By the way there is a serious error in my original listing at the top of this thread.

I said that Max Hall was the only undrafted free agent to start an NFL game since the 1999 draft.

That is incorrect.

Tony Romo was also an undrafted free agent who came to the Cowboys in 2003 and who has obviously started a few games in the NFL.

Mea culpa!

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by sportscurmudgeon

By the way there is a serious error in my original listing at the top of this thread.

I said that Max Hall was the only undrafted free agent to start an NFL game since the 1999 draft.

That is incorrect.

Tony Romo was also an undrafted free agent who came to the Cowboys in 2003 and who has obviously started a few games in the NFL.

Mea culpa!

Hall was the only undrafted rookie to start at QB.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by scott.sharrer

I have to disagree 110% on this one. How can you say he was a wasted pick when he came in when Ben got suspended and WON 75% of his starts? The entire Pittsburgh Offense were singing his praise after each of those games, and the game he started this season and lost, he teammates stood up and said they were to blame and that he was not at fault in any way.

If given the entire preseason to prepare as the starting QB, with a good team around him, he can do some real good. Don't count him out at all. He is going to come back and bite Pittsburgh in the @$$ when he leaves, becomes a starter and wipes the turf with their D.

Where did you get that from? Dixon was knocked out midway through his second start. Batch started the other two games of Big Bens suspension.

[skinsfaninok]

If Dixon was a "Top 15 QB" He would have been traded by now.