Can Clinton Carry the Load?

[12thMan]

In no uncertain terms, Clinton Portis stated that "He's ready to carry this team". I totally agree. Anyone who thinks yesterday was a result of playing a week defense, think again. I think he's just said enough is enough. And I'll bet this offensive line and more importantly, Clinton Portis, are brimming with smash mouth confidence right now.

I'm starting to wonder, however, if Clinton is also reaching a level of, not frustration with the two back tandem, but a give me the god damn ball already mentality. No more nice guy share the load crap.

I've thought all along that he needs somewhere in the neigborhood of 25-30 touches to do his thing. If the Redskins are going to grind it out for the final eight games, Portis will have to start ripping off a few more 100 yrd performances. Sorry, love Betts to death, but Portis is the heart and soul of this team. We desperately need to hang our hat on something or someone! I have all the confidence in the world in Jason Campbell, but I think the reality is, Portis' legs and Campbell's arm must work together in concert; and in that order.

I also wonder if Portis is drawing motivation from Adrian Peterson? During an interview he said how two years ago, he'd be finishing off runs like Peterson is doing right now. In the meantime, I'm very content with Betts making sparse appearances for breathers. But CP has to be the center piece of this offense if we want to be taken serisouly as a playoffs contender.

Next on deck: Philly

[over the mountain]

good thread and post 12th man, portis' performance yesterday plus his comments after the game really deserve some earnest discussion. i like the fact that we stuck with and played our true smashmouth football. we need to work on some things (connecting on the play actions, getting 6 when were in teh red zone) but the formula we used yesterday is the recipe to this teams success.

rabach coming back was huge for us as well. like the washington post article said a few weeks ago, he is the guy that reads the D and directs our O line.

can clinton carry the load? yes he can but he will need help and a commitment to him from coaches

[Southpaw]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

I'm starting to wonder, however, if Clinton is also reaching a level of, not frustration with the two back tandem, but a give me the god damn ball already mentality. No more nice guy share the load crap.

I agree with just about everything you said 12th, except for what I qouted above. I do think that Portis should be in the 25+ range as far as carries, but at the same time, I think he's perfectly content with Betts getting in for a five or six play stretch. He pulls himself out on occasion, and if Betts is able to pick up 5+ yards for a few carries, then by all means, let him run it to the half yard line, and then bring Portis back in to touchdown vulture Betts.

[artmonkforhallofamein07]

I love it. This is what our football team is all about. Portis is the man, and has not had the O line working well. I know this Jets Defense was not the best. But who cares. We needed this after the drubbing we took last week. We need to work on our play action, and maybe one day JC and Moss will hook up on one of these deep balls.

I hope our coaches realize this is our team's identity. Al I'm looking at you. And to anyone who likes to bash coach Gibb's. just back the hell of until the we see how this year will turn out. No one outside of the guys and gals on this board thought our team would do anything this year. But look at us now sitting at 5-3, and back to playing the kind of footbal the Skinz are known for. Philly your next!! HAIL!!!

[MTK]

Yesterday was a statement performance from CP. He wants the ball, saddle him up and let's ride.

[CPAlltheWay012]

haha after yesterday hes #7 in the league in rushing yards... pretty quick turn around from where he was headed....he still might have a shot of finishing with 1500 + yds... but i see 1300 as of now..

[BDBohnzie]

Here is the breakdown of carries per game:

Win vs. Miami - Portis: 17, Betts: 17
Win vs. Philly - Portis: 17, Betts: 6
Loss vs. Giants - Portis: 14, Betts: 7
Win vs. Detroit - Portis: 18, Betts: 8
Loss vs. Green Bay - Portis: 20, Betts: 3
Win vs. Arizona - Portis: 18, Betts: 3
Loss vs. New England - Portis: 11, Betts: 3
Win vs. Jets - Portis: 36, Betts: 9

From the looks of things, this hasn't been a two-back tandem. Aside from Game 1, Portis has been asked to carry the load, and yesterday was the first time he got more than 21 carries. And aside from Game 1, Betts hasn't seen the ball more than 9 times in a game.

Was it a case of a lighter load because of his preseason? Who knows. Can Portis carry the load? Of course. However, the team needs to be committed to letting him carry the ball. For the offense to be successful, Portis needs to get the ball 25+ times, and Campbell needs to be around 60% on pass completion. Betts needs to be a 1-2 play breather, and 4th quarter mop up duty from here on out.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by BDBohnzie

Here is the breakdown of carries per game:

Win vs. Miami - Portis: 17, Betts: 17
Win vs. Philly - Portis: 17, Betts: 6
Loss vs. Giants - Portis: 14, Betts: 7
Win vs. Detroit - Portis: 18, Betts: 8
Loss vs. Green Bay - Portis: 20, Betts: 3
Win vs. Arizona - Portis: 18, Betts: 3
Loss vs. New England - Portis: 11, Betts: 3
Win vs. Jets - Portis: 36, Betts: 9

From the looks of things, this hasn't been a two-back tandem. Aside from Game 1, Portis has been asked to carry the load, and yesterday was the first time he got more than 21 carries. And aside from Game 1, Betts hasn't seen the ball more than 9 times in a game.

Was it a case of a lighter load because of his preseason? Who knows. Can Portis carry the load? Of course. However, the team needs to be committed to letting him carry the ball. For the offense to be successful, Portis needs to get the ball 25+ times, and Campbell needs to be around 60% on pass completion. Betts needs to be a 1-2 play breather, and 4th quarter mop up duty from here on out.

Yeah it's been clear for a while now that this isn't a 2 back tandem.

Most importantly we need to run plays that CP likes and what he runs well. He's never liked the outside zone blocking stuff. Yesterday we ran it inside a lot more and the results speak for themselves. Give him a hole and let him go.

[12thMan]

Originally Posted by BDBohnzie

Here is the breakdown of carries per game:

Win vs. Miami - Portis: 17, Betts: 17
Win vs. Philly - Portis: 17, Betts: 6
Loss vs. Giants - Portis: 14, Betts: 7
Win vs. Detroit - Portis: 18, Betts: 8
Loss vs. Green Bay - Portis: 20, Betts: 3
Win vs. Arizona - Portis: 18, Betts: 3
Loss vs. New England - Portis: 11, Betts: 3
Win vs. Jets - Portis: 36, Betts: 9

From the looks of things, this hasn't been a two-back tandem. Aside from Game 1, Portis has been asked to carry the load, and yesterday was the first time he got more than 21 carries. And aside from Game 1, Betts hasn't seen the ball more than 9 times in a game.

Was it a case of a lighter load because of his preseason? Who knows. Can Portis carry the load? Of course. However, the team needs to be committed to letting him carry the ball. For the offense to be successful, Portis needs to get the ball 25+ times, and Campbell needs to be around 60% on pass completion. Betts needs to be a 1-2 play breather, and 4th quarter mop up duty from here on out.

I'm not really questioning the distribution of carries, but as you've said we yanked CP before he really got winded or any type of rhythm.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by BDBohnzie

For the offense to be successful, Portis needs to get the ball 25+ times, and Campbell needs to be around 60% on pass completion. Betts needs to be a 1-2 play breather, and 4th quarter mop up duty from here on out.

I gotta weigh in on this kind of analysis. Not to pick on you, BD, because I see it all the time all over the papers and all over the TV, and something just has to be said.

Saying that "in order to be successful, Portis needs the ball 25+ times a game" is exactly backwards. The proper way to say it is that in order to give Portis the ball 25+ yards per game, he needs to be successful.

It's no secret that our coaches want to run the ball a buttload. But in games when we haven't run much, it's not because the coaches weren't trying. It's because they handed the ball off, the runs got stopped, and we had to punt.

When a RB is ripping off 6 yards on most carries, and sustaining drives, then certainly the RB's carries will get up nice and high, because the team keeps making first downs, and the coach will keep feeding him the ball. But if the run is getting stopped, then we get into passing situations on 3rd down, and the other team gets the ball.

In other words, you can't just say "hand the ball off 30-35 times a game" and we'll be successful. If the run game is going nowhere, you have to try something else.

This is to say that coaching philosophy or playcalling has never been a problem. Execution has been the problem. If the line opens the holes, then feeding Portis 25 carries looks like a genius move. If the line gets stonewalled, then feeding it to him 25 times looks idiotic. Whether it's injuries or whatever, it's on the offensive line. If we want to win, we need them to smash face.

25+ carries are the cart. Don't put them before the hogs.

[12thMan]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I gotta weigh in on this kind of analysis. Not to pick on you, BD, because I see it all the time all over the papers and all over the TV, and something just has to be said.

Saying that "in order to be successful, Portis needs the ball 25+ times a game" is exactly backwards. The proper way to say it is that in order to give Portis the ball 25+ yards per game, he needs to be successful.

It's no secret that our coaches want to run the ball a buttload. But in games when we haven't run much, it's not because the coaches weren't trying. It's because they handed the ball off, the runs got stopped, and we had to punt.

When a RB is ripping off 6 yards on most carries, and sustaining drives, then certainly the RB's carries will get up nice and high, because the team keeps making first downs, and the coach will keep feeding him the ball. But if the run is getting stopped, then we get into passing situations on 3rd down, and the other team gets the ball.

In other words, you can't just say "hand the ball off 30-35 times a game" and we'll be successful. If the run game is going nowhere, you have to try something else.

This is to say that coaching philosophy or playcalling has never been a problem. Execution has been the problem. If the line opens the holes, then feeding Portis 25 carries looks like a genius move. If the line gets stonewalled, then feeding it to him 25 times looks idiotic. Whether it's injuries or whatever, it's on the offensive line. If we want to win, we need them to smash face.

25+ carries are the cart. Don't put them before the hogs.

Well, Schneed not to nit pick, but aren't you pointing out the obvious? Yes, we must exectute along the offensive line. That goes without saying. I don't think anyone is saying if Portis get's the ball 25-30 times, we are magically going to be successful or it's some key formula. But rather, him getting the ball that number of times "increases" the probability of Portis doing the type of damage he's capable of.

Truthfully, I don't think one is before the other. They work hand in hand. If the offensive line knows Clinton will get x amount of carries in a game, then I think they respond accordingly. If we can unconditionally commit to a philosphy, we'll probably see better results from both Portis and the offensive line. It's the interchanging of backs, in my opinion, before we get anything going which has been disconcerting, injuries notwithstanding.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

Well, Schneed not to nit pick, but aren't you pointing out the obvious? Yes, we must exectute along the offensive line. That goes without saying. I don't think anyone is saying if Portis get's the ball 25-30 times, we are magically going to be successful or it's some key formula. But rather, him getting the ball that number of times "increases" the probability of Portis doing the type of damage he's capable of.

Truthfully, I don't think one is before the other. They work hand in hand. If the offensive line knows Clinton will get x amount of carries in a game, then I think they respond accordingly. If we can unconditionally commit to a philosphy, we'll probably see better results from both Portis and the offensive line. It's the interchanging of backs, in my opinion, before we get anything going which has been disconcerting, injuries notwithstanding.

I wholeheartedly disagree with that. I don't think it's obvious in the least - I mean ESPN's talking heads say stuff like this all the time.

Committing to the running game doesn't mean it's going to perform well. Execution and the decision to try to execute, are two entirely different things.

You can come up with all the philosophy you want, but in the end, your philosophy needs to be dictated by what your players are capable of doing.

I agree that we need to be running the ball, because it gives us our best chance to win. But I don't agree with blindly handing the ball off without any regard to the success the run game is having - that's how you turn into a predictable offense. The team needs to be capable of both running and throwing the ball. All teams need a plan B, otherwise there's not a lot of adjusting you can do come halftime when you're down by 10 and need to score points.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

Well, Schneed not to nit pick, but aren't you pointing out the obvious? Yes, we must exectute along the offensive line. That goes without saying. I don't think anyone is saying if Portis get's the ball 25-30 times, we are magically going to be successful or it's some key formula. But rather, him getting the ball that number of times "increases" the probability of Portis doing the type of damage he's capable of.

Truthfully, I don't think one is before the other. They work hand in hand. If the offensive line knows Clinton will get x amount of carries in a game, then I think they respond accordingly. If we can unconditionally commit to a philosphy, we'll probably see better results from both Portis and the offensive line. It's the interchanging of backs, in my opinion, before we get anything going which has been disconcerting, injuries notwithstanding.

You see, the probability is unaffected by the number of carries.

There's really no specific evidence to confirm (or deny) your theory of Portis' increased effectiveness with increased carries. I can say this: studies have been done on consecutive carries, and have found that in almost all situations, giving consecutive carries to the same back will decrease effectiveness on the second carry.

So I can't really understand what is making you say that running Portis until his legs fall off is our best course of action. That REALLY seems like (but has not yet proven to be) backwards logic. He ran very well this week against a bad defense who did not use their safeties at all around the line until the overtime period. We pushed their nickel defense around all day, and Portis made a bunch of nice plays. The best way to attack the Jets was to keep running him.

Please don't cite this one game example as absolute validation of your theory. Most teams won't be so slow as to make adjustments to the run as the Jets were.

[12thMan]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

You see, the probability is unaffected by the number of carries.

There's really no specific evidence to confirm (or deny) your theory of Portis' increased effectiveness with increased carries. I can say this: studies have been done on consecutive carries, and have found that in almost all situations, giving consecutive carries to the same back will decrease effectiveness on the second carry.

So I can't really understand what is making you say that running Portis until his legs fall off is our best course of action. That REALLY seems like (but has not yet proven to be) backwards logic. He ran very well this week against a bad defense who did not use their safeties at all around the line until the overtime period. We pushed their nickel defense around all day, and Portis made a bunch of nice plays. The best way to attack the Jets was to keep running him.

Please don't cite this one game example as absolute validation of your theory. Most teams won't be so slow as to make adjustments to the run as the Jets were.

I think you and Schneed make some good points, but it sounds like you guys are not getting where I'm coming from. Or maybe you are, but you just flat out disagree. And both are fine with me.

But my opinion, not argument, is pretty straight forward; I feel that if we can get Portis the ball between 25-30 times a game, we'll see more of the Clinton Portis we've been accustomed to. Period. I can't substantiate that with hard core stats, but I'm willing to bet, he's more productive and so is our win/loss record. I don't see what's so backwards about that.

[12thMan]

Just to clarify the title of thread: I'm not speaking only in terms of carries, but also can Portis carry the emotional load. I get the feeling that's where he's coming from too.