Coach Selection, the Cap and Rebuilding Question

[Bill B]

After reading multiple posts that say if we select anyone outside of Greg Williams we will be basically rebuilding again, I had a question for the cap experts on this site as it relates to this: lets say we bring in a whole new coaching regime from the outside - are the Skins really in position to scrap the players currently on the roster and bring in a new group of players to start all over again? My guess would be that given the cap situation even if we brought in a new coaching regime from the outside we really are stuck with a lot of the players on the roster whether the new coach likes them or not and that bringing in a whole new set of players for the new coach would take multiple seasons to accomplish. Further I would ask can you address this question as it relates to the defense and bringing in someone like Rex Ryan who is I believe a 3-4 scheme coach - can the Skins really offload players to fit a 3-4 scheme cap wise? Or would it be more realistic to say Rex Ryan adjust his scheme to fit the skill sets of the players on the team? Just wanted thoughts on this as I would think from a cap perspective a complete rebuilding/team overhaul would be hard to accomplish in a short period of time and would take multiple seasons.

[Schneed10]

Great question, I addressed this back when the Bill Cowher rumor was swirling with vigor.

The biggest argument against bringing in Cowher is based around the salary cap. Consider this:

1) The Redskins are currently over the cap by $20 million, which is a straw man number of course. They've got the ability to restructure contracts and get about $10-15 million under the cap before free agency and the draft. That should give a new guy like Cowher good flexibility to get a few guys he likes in free agency. But not too many. He can't do what Gibbs did in 2004 and bring in a slew of guys (Griffin, Washington, Portis, Brunell, Daniels, Springs, Moss). In other words, Cowher's going to be forced to work mostly with what he has, which leads me to my next point...

2) Cowher has traditionally fielded a very large and physical offensive line. Our current group is not exceptionally large (more middle of the road, even on the smaller side). We're an athletic line, a la Al Saunders, as opposed to huge mashers. If Cowher wants to change out the offensive line, he can't. We can't gain any cap relief from the Jon Jansen contract until 2010. We can't gain cap relief from the Randy Thomas contract until 2011. And we can't gain cap relief from the Samuels contract until 2009. I personally don't understand why you'd ever want to get rid of those guys, even if you like bigger linemen. But the point remains, Cowher would be stuck with them.

3) Defensively, Cowher runs a 3-4. Given the points I made in number (1) above, Cowher can't just go bringing in the LBs we'd need to run his 3-4. Or maybe he'd play Andre Carter at the rush LB spot? And I'm not sure Griffin or Montgomery are suited to be the anchor you need in the middle of a 3-man line. He probably needs a big NT like Vince Wilfork. But the main point; given that the Redskins need to restructure a bunch of deals this year just to get under the cap and shed that $20 million we're currently over by, this will kick more of the cap hit into the future for those players. In 2009 and 2010, the Skins may find it even tougher to get under the cap, and may be even more restrained in free agency.

In summation, if Cowher wants to change out the personnel to fit his traditional style of play, it's going to take 3 or 4 years to do it. He won't have the flexibility in free agency to change the makeup of the team. He can't shed some of the big contracts for another few years. He'll have to do it through the draft. Or, instead of trying to change the team to fit his system, he could try to change his system to fit his team. But it seems like Gregg Williams would be better suited for that, after all, he and Saunders already have the system that fits the team best.

The Redskins do not have the cap flexibility to change the team every four years. Snyder has made a financial committment to a number of vets through the restructuring of contracts. He's showing a tendency towards keeping players together for the long haul; but if he brings in a new coach who tries to fit those round players into square holes, it will be a disaster. There's only one choice for the team given the salary cap picture: Gregg Williams.

Now, points about wanting to change the offensive line are probably moot. I see no reason to believe Fassel would want to switch out our line. But points about the 3-4 defense are a real concern if Rex Ryan comes aboard and wants to run something like that. We're built for a 4-3, and changing out the roster will not be easy from a cap perspective.

This is exactly why continuity is so important. In the midst of a coaching search, everyone forgets about the salary cap. But the team is not in good position to change out the roster quickly to fit Fassel's mold.

Fassel is going to have to sink or swim with, for the most part, the hand he's been dealt. And if Fassel doesn't work out, I don't want to hear any crap about Fassel not having the capability to get the roster he wants. Fassel may not be to blame in that situation, but Snyder should know the cap situation going into this. For the first time, I'm disappointed in his foresight with regards to the cap.

Hell, I can see it coming from a mile away.

[Football Man]

Bill Belichick is a 3-4 coach, too, and he inherited a salary cap mess from the Grier-Carroll regime in New England. But he built a defense around the players he inherited (buttressed by cheap free agents), and stuck with a 4-3 alignment for his first two years with the franchise. He would often work in 3-4 fronts, but, given what he had to work with, he maintained the 4-3 as his base.

That didn't work badly -- Belichick won the Super Bowl with a 4-3 in 2001 (a rookie Seymour playing inside, Hamilton and Pleasant on the outside, etc.). But he gradually picked up players that allowed him to integrate 3-4 flexibility -- smaller college DEs he could shift to OLBs in the pros (Vrabel, Colvin, Banta-Cain), big DEs who were DTs in college (Seymour, Warren, Green), and a big-ass NT who could clog up the middle (first Ted Washington, the Wilfork when he plummeted in the '04 draft).

So it can work. But this model assumes a smart personnel group that finds later-round talent in the draft, signs underrated free agents to value deals, and, most importantly, manages the cap effectively. The moron twins (Danny and his fluffer Vinny) are the antithesis of this.

[SmootSmack]

Rex Ryan runs a lot of 4-3 sets though. I mean isn't the 46 defense essentially a 4-3?

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Rex Ryan runs a lot of 4-3 sets though. I mean isn't the 46 defense essentially a 4-3?

Agreed, I think Ryan mixes it up, but you're still limited, no matter what you are running.

If Fassel and Ryan think they can operate with the players we have, then OK. But this is very frustrating to see a new regime come in and try to take 3 years to build up through the draft, when GW is in position to continue using the players we have effectively.

[backrow]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

If Fassel and Ryan and...

Zorn! Don't forget the New OC!

[Bill B]

Thanks for the insight on this - I guess if we are to switch to a 3-4 it will have to be done gradually as we accumulate the players to fit that scheme. I am getting ahead of myself and maybe Synder sticks with Williams and the current systems stay intact.

[MTK]

There's obviously no room cap wise for any major rebuilding. For any new coach they're going to have to add/subtract gradually and work with what we've got... which in my opinion isn't all that bad.

[Bill B]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

There's obviously no room cap wise for any major rebuilding. For any new coach they're going to have to add/subtract gradually and work with what we've got... which in my opinion isn't all that bad.

Cool - I just don't want to see a complete teardown occur - especially when in my opinion the NFC is there for the taking for the next couple of years.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

There's obviously no room cap wise for any major rebuilding. For any new coach they're going to have to add/subtract gradually and work with what we've got... which in my opinion isn't all that bad.

It might work out with Fassel coaching the guys we have. I think Fassel's a pretty good head coach. But I also think GW's a pretty good head coach, and he's better equipped to work with the crop of players we have.

It's just hard to see the logic.