Breakdown: Redskins-Jets

[GTripp0012]

I had the oppertunity this week to not only DVR the game, but rewatch it and chart every offensive play.

I seperated each play into successful and unsuccessful rankings under the following definitions:

1st down plays to gain 45% of the yards needed for a first down or TD

2nd down plays to gain 60% of the yards needed for a first down or TD

3rd and 4th down plays need to gain a first down or a TD to be successful.

The goal for an offense under these definitions is to be successful on about half their plays. That's the benchmark for a good day. The Redskins ran 70 plays and were successful on 34 of them by the aforementioned definitions. That's a 49% success rate which is pretty good. The Jets do have the worst defense in the league though, but what I noticed is that #52 MLB David Harris played so well in his first NFL start that it wasn't quite like playing the old Jets defense, so I am happy with 49% of our offensive plays being successful.

Here are some of my key observations from the game:

• The Jets matched our receiver personnel by going into the nickel whenever we took Sellers and Lorenzo Alexander out of the game.
• The Jets spent the entire regulation period by keeping both safeties deep and a non factor in the run game.
• Al Saunders called a great game. Both times we took deep shots down the field, we caught the Jets firing their nickel back, and their strong safety respectively. Both could have been TD's with slightly better throws.
• The offensive line didn't do a particularly good job in the run game, but took advantage of a great matchup. With only 6 guys in the box most of the game, the line was able to put a hat on every guy in the box and allow Portis to attack downhill.
• We missed a lot of blocks in the run game, but almost never had multiple breakdowns on the same play. Portis picked up his guys and did not allow himself to be arm tackled very often
• Injuries are not the reason this offensive line is struggling. Wade and Fabini had pretty good games on Sunday: Wade performed the best of all the lineman. Samuels didn't have his best game Sunday, but Kendall and Rabach were the main culprits when a running play fell apart or when pass pro broke down.
• Kendall and Rabach are doing a horrible job sorting out the backside blitz. Four times, they stuck Samuels with two guys to block. Twice, Campbell was able to avoid the pressure and make a play, but the two other times resulted in a sack and an interception.
• The variance in the results was solely in the way Campbell was able to recognize the blitz. When he does, good things happen. When he doesn't, catastrophe happens.
• Jason Campbell was a lot better in the first half than he was in the second. In second half, I charted 5 mistakes in the 2nd half from Campbell, but NONE after the inteception. After the pick, the coaches appeared to take the game out of his hands entirely, by running with great success
• We are a much better running team when we only play with one receiver. We had success in the passing game too when we tried it.
• The disallowance of audibles in this offense is killing the running game. The Jets rarely had enough guys in the box to handle our runs, but on the few plays they did, it was blatently obvious what the result would be presnap.
• Portis' vision is lacking. He doesn't always go where the best hole is. Betts' vision is a lot better, however, Portis runs a lot harder.
• Campbell's accuracy is worse than it was 4 weeks ago. Period.

Here are some defensive observations. I went back and watched the Packers game again and compared it to the current defense:

• I understand we are down Carlos Rogers, but the team that shut down Favre and Co., no longer exists.
• The defensive line, comprised of the same 4 people, isn't producing anywhere near the same result.
• The coverage is not tight. Even when we blitzed the house a bunch on Sunday, we gave Clemens plenty of room to make a timing throw. Favre never had any such room.
• We always took away the Green Bay receivers' first cut, now we pretty much allow the catch.
• Kedric Golston can't play at this level. Not yet at least.
• The Jets had a lot of success sealing Rocky and Daniels inside on runs to get the corner. Rocky still plays a little undisciplined at times.
• The only time we enjoyed defensive success was when we got to Clemens quickly. Whenever the blitz got picked up, both Chris Wilson and Andre Carter would be so far upfield that we basically would be playing with 9. The lanes for QB scrambling could be had by anyone.
• Chris Wilson and Andre Carter just can't be on the field at the same time. They both do the same damn thing every play and with decent blocking, are irrelivant.
• Gregg Williams may be reverting to schematic tendencies from last year with Rogers' injury. We just don't have the horses to be a dominant pass stopping team, and according to GW, thats reason enough to not even try.

I hope this analysis gives a bit more insight into the Redskins this season, and gives you some things to look for in the future.

[SmootSmack]

Very nice thread. Good job with this

[SC Skins Fan]

Having not rewatched the game I can only go off your analysis. Seems pretty solid (and time consuming). Anecdotally at least, I would agree with most of your observations. Here's a question, though. If Campbell is not as accurate as he was four weeks ago, what has changed? Has his mechanics changed? Play calling? Willingness to throw into any coverage whatsoever? And, has he been all that accurate at all this season? He has hit some nice throws, but it seems like he misses a bunch too. Not just the deep stuff. He also tends to throw high a lot and seems to overthrow Santana all the time (again, not just the deep stuff, but also that early throw at GB where Moss and to do a full extension dive and then in the NE game where Moss did a 5 yard curl that would have given the Skins a first down and Campbell threw way outside and the Skins didn't convert - those are just the two that come to mind). I like Campbell, but he just seems pretty sporadic at this point. If someone can break down what they think is the reason(s) I'd appreciate it.

[freddyg12]

damn thorough job!

I saw a lot of the same things but can't say I looked at all of it the way you did. I don't know if you can blame Kendall & Rabach for a couple of those blitzes, they were extremely well disguised. I imagine that has to be a pre snap thing, maybe rabach called em out but they still didn't see him coming.

Those passing lanes w/Carter & Wilson way upfield were a problem, but I think that's one that can be fixed. overall though it does seem the D is experiencing a market correction. GW has his work cut out for him in the next half of the season.

I unfortunately agree that JC seems less accurate as the season goes on. Maybe the coaches see this & have scaled things back accordingly.

[MTK]

Nice breakdown, thanks

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

If Campbell is not as accurate as he was four weeks ago, what has changed? Has his mechanics changed? Play calling? Willingness to throw into any coverage whatsoever? And, has he been all that accurate at all this season? He has hit some nice throws, but it seems like he misses a bunch too. Not just the deep stuff. He also tends to throw high a lot and seems to overthrow Santana all the time (again, not just the deep stuff, but also that early throw at GB where Moss and to do a full extension dive and then in the NE game where Moss did a 5 yard curl that would have given the Skins a first down and Campbell threw way outside and the Skins didn't convert - those are just the two that come to mind). I like Campbell, but he just seems pretty sporadic at this point. If someone can break down what they think is the reason(s) I'd appreciate it.

Campbell has always had accuacy issues, but to answer your question, I think he's just hurting.

No idea how long it's going to take before he can throw the ball efficiently again...I think we just have to keep trying it.

Offensive balance will solve all of our problems until we can find out identity. After all, if theres anything that the length of the season has shown, it's that the later on a team establishes their identity, the more likely it is their true identity.

Right now we are posing as a running team, and I really don't think that's us, but it worked last week and it could work again these next two. After that, I would hope that Campbell can establish himself as a top passer, because that certainly hasn't happened yet.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by freddyg12

damn thorough job!

I saw a lot of the same things but can't say I looked at all of it the way you did. I don't know if you can blame Kendall & Rabach for a couple of those blitzes, they were extremely well disguised. I imagine that has to be a pre snap thing, maybe rabach called em out but they still didn't see him coming.

Those passing lanes w/Carter & Wilson way upfield were a problem, but I think that's one that can be fixed. overall though it does seem the D is experiencing a market correction. GW has his work cut out for him in the next half of the season.

I unfortunately agree that JC seems less accurate as the season goes on. Maybe the coaches see this & have scaled things back accordingly.

Well disguised or not, the center and left guard are still responsible for their gaps. The QB is responsible for that too, and twice on Sunday, neither the QB or the OL picked up the blitz.

The QB is young, but the OL is a bunch of vets, so I shoulder the blame of the mental part of the game on them. But that's just my opinion, as the only fact is simply that the job didn't get done.

[SouperMeister]

Outstanding analysis. Based on your comment that Golsten looks out of his element, I hope that Alexander can step up, and perhaps fill in more effectively in the DT rotation.

As for Campbell's inaccuracy, I'm particularly troubled with his penchant to drive our receivers toward the sideline on deep throws when the middle of the field is wide open. If he lays that ball to Santana with touch toward the post, it's an easy TD. Right now, Campbell is making the deep throws far more difficult than they need to be. Hopefully, he will improve this aspect of his game through coaches pointing it out and experience.

[EternalEnigma21]

are the blitzes they got confused on a result of the "soft line" they ran alot in the first half?

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Very good stuff GTripp. Did you notice anything else about Alexander?

[dmek25]

good read. but i think the skins main problem on offense is the lack of trust in Campbell. it seems like Saunders and company are satisfied with throwing 3 yard passes. and hoping the receiver breaks some tackles, and makes a play. and we really dont still have an identity on offense. are we a power team? a passing team?

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by dmek25

good read. but i think the skins main problem on offense is the lack of trust in Campbell. it seems like Saunders and company are satisfied with throwing 3 yard passes. and hoping the receiver breaks some tackles, and makes a play. and we really dont still have an identity on offense. are we a power team? a passing team?

I've got to admit it, I really wanted Saunders to open up the offense a few weeks ago. But JC has been looking pretty bad these past 3-4 weeks. It's almost as though we have a totally different QB under center. He's young and hopefully things will get turned around, but our passing attack is pretty bad right now.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

Very good stuff GTripp. Did you notice anything else about Alexander?

He whiffed on the block on the 2nd and goal from the 4 at the end of the first half. His man made the play.

Overall, he did an average job and we were definately blocking better with him on the whole than without him.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

Having not rewatched the game I can only go off your analysis. Seems pretty solid (and time consuming). Anecdotally at least, I would agree with most of your observations. Here's a question, though. If Campbell is not as accurate as he was four weeks ago, what has changed? Has his mechanics changed? Play calling? Willingness to throw into any coverage whatsoever? And, has he been all that accurate at all this season? He has hit some nice throws, but it seems like he misses a bunch too. Not just the deep stuff. He also tends to throw high a lot and seems to overthrow Santana all the time (again, not just the deep stuff, but also that early throw at GB where Moss and to do a full extension dive and then in the NE game where Moss did a 5 yard curl that would have given the Skins a first down and Campbell threw way outside and the Skins didn't convert - those are just the two that come to mind). I like Campbell, but he just seems pretty sporadic at this point. If someone can break down what they think is the reason(s) I'd appreciate it.

In JC I see alot of the same stuff w/ alot of the other young QB's around the league. They are all just up and down. None of the young Qb's are consistent. Hell, alot of the veterans are not consistent. It's the toughest position to play in sports. We all want our guy to be the next Tom Brady. But the fact is he just isn't there yet and neither are any of the young qb's. Look how shitty Ben R. played last year? I think he threw 23 INt's. Just terrible. JC has a long way to go to be a good NFL qb. Right now he is just average playing with below average WR's and that is why our offense is so conservative.

[mheisig]

Fantastic analysis.

"You must spread some reputation around before giving it to GTripp0012 again."