Can Clinton Carry the Load?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

Well, Schneed not to nit pick, but aren't you pointing out the obvious? Yes, we must exectute along the offensive line. That goes without saying. I don't think anyone is saying if Portis get's the ball 25-30 times, we are magically going to be successful or it's some key formula. But rather, him getting the ball that number of times "increases" the probability of Portis doing the type of damage he's capable of.

Truthfully, I don't think one is before the other. They work hand in hand. If the offensive line knows Clinton will get x amount of carries in a game, then I think they respond accordingly. If we can unconditionally commit to a philosphy, we'll probably see better results from both Portis and the offensive line. It's the interchanging of backs, in my opinion, before we get anything going which has been disconcerting, injuries notwithstanding.

You see, the probability is unaffected by the number of carries.

There's really no specific evidence to confirm (or deny) your theory of Portis' increased effectiveness with increased carries. I can say this: studies have been done on consecutive carries, and have found that in almost all situations, giving consecutive carries to the same back will decrease effectiveness on the second carry.

So I can't really understand what is making you say that running Portis until his legs fall off is our best course of action. That REALLY seems like (but has not yet proven to be) backwards logic. He ran very well this week against a bad defense who did not use their safeties at all around the line until the overtime period. We pushed their nickel defense around all day, and Portis made a bunch of nice plays. The best way to attack the Jets was to keep running him.

Please don't cite this one game example as absolute validation of your theory. Most teams won't be so slow as to make adjustments to the run as the Jets were.