2015 Draft Prospects... First Edition

[JoeRedskin]

... There are corollaries to (1) -- (a) Is he a stoner who can't stop? (b) If you think he can stop, are you confident enough in your risk analysis to bet a substantial franchise asset on it? (c) Regardless of your confidence in your risk analysis, does your team have the flexibility absorb the lost/wasted asset if you are wrong?

I got no problem with the occasional college user. At the same time, and regardless of your stance on the issue, mary jane is still not allowed to play in most jurisdictions and, if the NFL catches you playing with her, you are on the fast track out of the playground.

With a top 5 pick, your options (1) & (3) represent big risks for a franchise. If you think he's "just a stoner who can stop," you better have some high confidence in that assessment. Similarly, if it's Seattle for example, they have some flexibility to blow a top 5 pick and not suffer a franchise set-back. We don't have that flexibility yet. We NEED production out of this pick - either in the form of a high-floor/high-ceiling player or quality value for a trade back.

He may end up being a beast. He may be a Trent Williams (remember his 4 game suspension?). On the other hand, he is by no means a sure thing - even without the failed test, and he may be the next Fred Davis.

Right now, unless we trade back, no way I take him at 5. Too much work to be done on this roster. There will be other chances to gamble in the future. Now is not the time. Build steady with high probability/low risk choices to build the foundation then go out on a limb in hopes of catching lightning.