The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by WillH

San Fran just gave up a 2nd for Garoppolo, I don't understand why you're so sure no-one would do the same for Kirk.

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Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).