QB or defense: what's the bigger problem?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by illdefined

ah, but then we get back into what Brunell considers "open". his reflex so far has been to check down immediately, and defenses have done everything to encourage this, because they know how to stop it.

Brunell is well documented to avoid throwing to the middle of the field (BEFORE Saunders), so teams do the ideal defense against that tendency, the ubiquitous Cover-2. the safeties bracket the outside recievers toward the sidelines, where Brunell does throw often (to avoid INTs surely) and essentially double cover his number 1 and 2.

1 LB covers Cooley (or the Nickelback covers ARE in 3 WR sets), if Cooley stays in to max protect that LB becomes a pass rusher. the other LB goes on a blitz to make Brunell dump it off/and or occupy the dump off in a block, remember both his WRs are bracketed under and over already...

since Brunell won't throw to the middle of the field, the middle linebacker doesn't need to run up and cover the gap left by the safeties. instead he can stay on a spy near the line to stop the dump off, or the 'surprise' draw or double cover Cooley if need be.

it's what defenses have been doing to us like clockwork this whole season. i cant see if our WRs are taking middle of the field routes, but i definitely know Brunell isn't throwing there. defenses are taking advantage of Brunell's tendencies and dictating exactly what we get. while you can call him 'efficient' you can also call him dangerously predictable.

Wait, are you saying that the Skins see more cover two than any other team? That would be a very interesting point if true, but I'm sure someone would have picked up on that.

If Cooley is covered by a linebacker in this scheme every play (which would be really stupid defense, but OK), I'd throw him the ball every play. 10 yard hook or something.

If defenses have been running this scheme like clockwork against us, it hasnt been working. We have more points scored than 22 other teams. That includes return TDs (Randle El and Rock) and Defensive TDs (none), but so does everyone elses numbers.

If the 'window' of the field (between the safeties) is as wide open as you think it is, I seriously would hope that Al Saunders would have realized this by now. Even then, a theroy that says Brunell is afraid to throw to a wide open area of the field doesn't hold much water. Granted, the safeties have more time to cover passes thrown down the field (thats why they are low percentage passes after all), but if the opponent was playing a bastardized hard 2 against us each week every play, it seems like a monkey could beat it.

More realistically, it's a coverage we are seeing a few times a game, and when we have the right play called, Lloyd goes down the middle for 20+. When we don't, we end up checking down into LB territory. That's not a bad way to play it. It's not a coverage that would be apparent presnap, it would likely look like any other even (cover 2, quarters) coverage.

Also, its tough to blitz out of a hard 2, because if you run to the blitzer, you go all the way to the safeties. Brunell doesn't usually check down unless hes facing a blitz. If no ones open, he has a tendency to roll, look, and throw it away. Very conservative, yes, but its a safe effective way to move the ball.

Overanalysis in its truest form.