How good will JaMarcus Russell be at the Pro Level?

[GTripp0012]

Here's a mock draft buster for you guys:

Lane Kiffin, head coach of the Raiders, reportedly wants to make Brady Quinn the first pick.

Al Davis wants to acquire a veteran QB and draft Calvin Johnson with the first pick.

So isn't it more than possible that if the decision is between Johnson and Quinn, that Russell will be the one to fall to Cleveland?

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I'm wary of anyone who makes a name for himself with pinpoint accuracy at the college level, especially if he has a rep for making poor decisions. That doesn't fly in the NFL.

The John Elway comparison sounds pretty accurate...but historic greatness is not predictable before the draft. Elway did a lot of stuff at the college level that Russell doesn't do very well.

I want to hesitate from labeling Russell a bust candidate, but he's just not a good NFL prospect. No QB in recent memory could have used his senior year of college more than Russell. The most ideal situation for him would be 3+ years of riding the bench so that he could get pretty far into his development before having to be put under the microscope. This could allow him enough time to develop into an NFL worthy starter before he gets labeled a bust.

If he goes first overall, he's not going to have that luxury. No matter which team he ends up on, he's going to develop a rep for poor decision making and being INT prone, and probably get the bust label sometime before 2009.

No matter what, he's never going to live up to expectations. He just isn't a good decision maker, period. Most underclass QB's aren't. If he can get into a favorable situation where he doesn't have to play right away, he might earn the perception of a starting quality QB (even though he's really the exact same player--just farther along in his development). If he gets thrown to the Wolves immediately, he's going to have a very rough first three years, and in today's league, generally its three strikes and you're out.

Unfortuante but true.

Also how in the world can you say he is not a good decision maker????? Perhaps earlier in his career this was the case, when he was young and inexperienced, but certainly not now. Since you are so into stats just look at his. 28tds and 8ints and 67% completion rate. Sorry but those are great stats. 8 ints in 342 attempts is really taking care of the football. Especially in the SEC where the talent level is the highest in the country. And if you looked at his last game he totally outplayed Brady Quinn and for that matter so did Troy Smith in the 06 game. Brady Quinn looked terrible against LSU. He was all over the place with the ball. Now would a smart scout grade Quinn on this performaces in bowl games? Hell no. The guy really proved himself, especially his last two years. Quinn is a great college qb. But Russell also got better every single year. All of his %'s went up in his three years. He had no regression in his three years at LSU. So I'm not sure where your getting your info from about Russell but it's completly 100% wrong.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GMScud

Tripp, that is so funny that you brought up the Kyle Boller analogy with Jamarcus. I was about to bring that up, but I figured I'd go check some of your posts just in case. Sure enough, there it was. LOL!! When I heard Todd McShay bring up the whole 60 yd "Butt Throw" by Russell, I laughed my ass off (forgive the pun). Who friggin cares if he can throw it behind his back with his eyes closed, off the rafters, into the endzone??? How on earth does meaningless crap like that translate to the football field??

The comparison of Leinart to Quinn is very valid:
Leinart: played 4 years (3 of which he started) in a pro-style offense with a NFL caliber talent all around him and a pro-style coach. His leadership and smarts coupled with all that experience = success.
Quinn: also played 4 seasons, starting 3, and played in a pro-style offense with an NFL coach, and also played in some huge games.

I also like Quinn over Russell. He's got size and athleticism, plus Weis absolutely raves about him. Sure he's kind of obligated too, but Weis developed a guy named Tom Brady. Last I checked he's done okay. Hearing Weis wholeheartedly compare Brady with Quinn has got to make some FO's drool.

But I don't think we can say Russell has less of a chance of success. Vince Young only played 3 seasons. Cutler only played 3 seasons. They both did well and look to be developing nicely. I guess it's the decision making that may take a little longer to come around with QBs that leave school early. Like you said, at some point you just have to hope you pick the right guy.

I think the jury is still out on Boller. Did he get enough starts to prove himself? I don't think so. Did he have weapons around him to succeed? No. Now one thing Boller needs to do is make better decisions with the ball. And that is why McNair was brought in. Less TO's and let the defense win it. But I still think he can play. He just needs more time. The problem was Billick's ass was on the line and he didn't have anymore time to wait on Boller.

[SKINSnCANES]

I havent read what all of you wrote, hopefully this hasnt been said, but there was an article today about the biggest busts to be drafted at the QB position, its on fox news.

They ranked Schuler in the top ten biggest busts, and said that everyone was impressed by Schuler because he could "sit on his knees and throw the ball through the cross bars, which sounds very similar to what people are saying about russel"

I found that kinda ironic. I think being a QB isnt all about arm strength. Vick has amazing arm strength too but no one catches his passes...

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Also how in the world can you say he is not a good decision maker????? Perhaps earlier in his career this was the case, when he was young and inexperienced, but certainly not now. Since you are so into stats just look at his. 28tds and 8ints and 67% completion rate. Sorry but those are great stats. 8 ints in 342 attempts is really taking care of the football. Especially in the SEC where the talent level is the highest in the country. And if you looked at his last game he totally outplayed Brady Quinn and for that matter so did Troy Smith in the 06 game. Brady Quinn looked terrible against LSU. He was all over the place with the ball. Now would a smart scout grade Quinn on this performaces in bowl games? Hell no. The guy really proved himself, especially his last two years. Quinn is a great college qb. But Russell also got better every single year. All of his %'s went up in his three years. He had no regression in his three years at LSU. So I'm not sure where your getting your info from about Russell but it's completly 100% wrong.

28 TDs, 8 INTs, and 67% are wonderful numbers. But it was only one year. He would have been a much better prospect if he came back another year and did it again. Quinn made a significant improvement every year through his Junior year, and then came back to improve his game for another season, and this difference will be reflected between Russell and Quinn at the pro level. I promise you.

There are a lot of college numbers that will be decieving. That's why I say its far more important that an NFL prospect take more from his college experience (games started), than he gives (everything else).

Do you disagree with the notion that Russell would have been a significantly better prospect if he stayed at LSU for his senior year season? I mean, it sounds like you are on board with this concept, but you continue to argue in spite of it.

Completion percentage is important. And Russell was certainly better at it than Quinn in college. There are a lot of experience related reasons to expect Quinn to be better than Russell at the next level. Completely aside from starting 17 more games (one and a half freakin seasons), Russell made a lot of boneheaded decisions at the college level. I mean, at times, it almost seemed like he lacked the ability to adjust to certain defensive coverages, and was easily confused. Many LSU fans were frusterated by this.

You can make a solid argument that Russell was a better college QB than Quinn because the college game allows for physical skill to overcome inconsistent mental play. Based on what we already know about what makes a guy successful at the pro level, Quinn>Russell (by a sizable margin) just seems like the gimme of the year. Stastical projections only improve my confidence in this.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

I think the jury is still out on Boller. Did he get enough starts to prove himself? I don't think so. Did he have weapons around him to succeed? No. Now one thing Boller needs to do is make better decisions with the ball. And that is why McNair was brought in. Less TO's and let the defense win it. But I still think he can play. He just needs more time. The problem was Billick's ass was on the line and he didn't have anymore time to wait on Boller.

Boller has 34 starts in this league, I think that's enough to get a good idea of what kind of player someone is.

Boller stinks in my opinion. I don't see him ever becoming a quality starter.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

I think the jury is still out on Boller. Did he get enough starts to prove himself? I don't think so. Did he have weapons around him to succeed? No. Now one thing Boller needs to do is make better decisions with the ball. And that is why McNair was brought in. Less TO's and let the defense win it. But I still think he can play. He just needs more time. The problem was Billick's ass was on the line and he didn't have anymore time to wait on Boller.

I think that this is the inherent difference between you and me when it comes to QB. When I look at a QB, I start with college stats. Even with a good deal of starts, Boller's completion percentage at Cal was pathetic (below 50%). I mean, he absolutely sucked.

So when a guy doesn't project to the NFL well, I feel that its on him to prove to me that he can in fact get it done in this league. Boller has simply given me no reason to believe that his college stats were a total fluke. If anything, what he has done so far only confirmed what his college statistics told us would happen. I don't know how much farther we should wait on Boller to prove everybody wrong, including his past performance. 99.9% of the time if the light hasn't gone on by now, it ain't happening.

I mean, we can let every player in the league prove himself experimentally, but in today's league where as a coach you get about 3 years to prove yourself, more than half the coaches in the league would lose their careers if they did it this way. Not all QBs are created equal. You have to start with an expectation for a guy...coaches simply don't have 10-15 years to let each player on their team set their own expectations through trial and error.

Like every QB to ever play in the NFL, Boller will continue to improve over the next few years. But based on what he's done so far, a normal improvement due to age won't be enough to make him a quality starter.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Boller has 34 starts in this league, I think that's enough to get a good idea of what kind of player someone is.

Boller stinks in my opinion. I don't see him ever becoming a quality starter.

It's funny how everyone heaps tons of praise on Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome, yet conveniently gloss over the trade he made to get Boller. A 2nd and a 1st for KB? Not worth it at all

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think that this is the inherent difference between you and me when it comes to QB. When I look at a QB, I start with college stats. Even with a good deal of starts, Boller's completion percentage at Cal was pathetic (below 50%). I mean, he absolutely sucked.

So when a guy doesn't project to the NFL well, I feel that its on him to prove to me that he can in fact get it done in this league. Boller has simply given me no reason to believe that his college stats were a total fluke. If anything, what he has done so far only confirmed what his college statistics told us would happen. I don't know how much farther we should wait on Boller to prove everybody wrong, including his past performance. 99.9% of the time if the light hasn't gone on by now, it ain't happening.

I mean, we can let every player in the league prove himself experimentally, but in today's league where as a coach you get about 3 years to prove yourself, more than half the coaches in the league would lose their careers if they did it this way. Not all QBs are created equal. You have to start with an expectation for a guy...coaches simply don't have 10-15 years to let each player on their team set their own expectations through trial and error.

Like every QB to ever play in the NFL, Boller will continue to improve over the next few years. But based on what he's done so far, a normal improvement due to age won't be enough to make him a quality starter.

I'm not disagreeing w/ you about Boller. He should not have been picked so high just becasue he threw the ball on his knees 60 yards. But I think he just needs more time. His last year starting he was starting to play well and had some really solid games. Some guys mature faster than others. But you are right. In today NFL guys need to play well ASAP.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

I'm not disagreeing w/ you about Boller. He should not have been picked so high just becasue he threw the ball on his knees 60 yards. But I think he just needs more time. His last year starting he was starting to play well and had some really solid games. Some guys mature faster than others. But you are right. In today NFL guys need to play well ASAP.

I think, like any other QB, Boller would improve given more time. But improve to the level where he should be starting in this league? I don't see it.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

28 TDs, 8 INTs, and 67% are wonderful numbers. But it was only one year. He would have been a much better prospect if he came back another year and did it again. Quinn made a significant improvement every year through his Junior year, and then came back to improve his game for another season, and this difference will be reflected between Russell and Quinn at the pro level. I promise you.

There are a lot of college numbers that will be decieving. That's why I say its far more important that an NFL prospect take more from his college experience (games started), than he gives (everything else).

Do you disagree with the notion that Russell would have been a significantly better prospect if he stayed at LSU for his senior year season? I mean, it sounds like you are on board with this concept, but you continue to argue in spite of it.

Completion percentage is important. And Russell was certainly better at it than Quinn in college. There are a lot of experience related reasons to expect Quinn to be better than Russell at the next level. Completely aside from starting 17 more games (one and a half freakin seasons), Russell made a lot of boneheaded decisions at the college level. I mean, at times, it almost seemed like he lacked the ability to adjust to certain defensive coverages, and was easily confused. Many LSU fans were frusterated by this.

You can make a solid argument that Russell was a better college QB than Quinn because the college game allows for physical skill to overcome inconsistent mental play. Based on what we already know about what makes a guy successful at the pro level, Quinn>Russell (by a sizable margin) just seems like the gimme of the year. Stastical projections only improve my confidence in this.

Of couse he would benefit from playing his senior year. But Russell has nothing left to prove. His stock can only go down. If you were him would you stay? Hell no. He is mostly likely going to be the number one pick in the draft. That means a 50 million $ signing bonus. Why would you go back and risk getting hurt? Remember what happened to Leinart? If he had left his 3rd year he would be a 49er right now, and he would have went first in the 05 draft. Would that last year made difference? Sure. But he got outplayed by Vince Young on the big stage and cost himself millions of dollars. So keep that in mind. It's not just about getting more game time with most guys. Leinart being the exception.

Yes Russell made some bonehead plays. But so did Brady Quinn. So did Peyton Manning in the SB. All QB's make bad decisions in every game that they play in. But Russell made less mistakes every year he started. He grew and matured like every good QB does. You act like QB's are suppose to be like robots and not make mistakes. It happens to the best QB's in football every game.

I remember watching Brady Quinn throw into double coverage against LSU so many times it wasn't even funny. He played terrible. Does than mean he is a bad decision maker? No. He just had a bad game. Remember Tripp, QBs are not robots and stats don't always tell the whole story.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

It's funny how everyone heaps tons of praise on Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome, yet conveniently gloss over the trade he made to get Boller. A 2nd and a 1st for KB? Not worth it at all

He should probably get a little flack for the Boller move, but his other first round picks have made something like 27 combined pro-bowls. Some of his draft picks:
Johnathan Ogden, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Todd Heap, Terrel Suggs, Jamal Lewis, Chester Taylor, Casey Rabach, Chris McAllister, Brandon Stokely, Peter Boulware... that's just off the top of my head, and not mentioning his free agent acquisitions. Personally I'd like to have the guy in our front office. At least he is wise enough to emphasize the draft.

[SmootSmack]

I think he's a fine GM. But I mean the Redskins have gotten guys like Cooley, Taylor, Campbell, Golston, Washington, Springs, Thomas; yet we continue to bitch about stupid stuff like signing Bruce Smith seven years ago and overlook everything else.

I guess it was just my feeble attempt to say not all GM's are infallible Gods, as many here tend to believe.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Remember, Palmer is a guy playing in his prime. I'm saying that when Leinart and Rivers and Roethlisberger get a few more years starting experience under their belt, they will be as good, maybe a little better than Palmer.

And that's not bashing Palmer in anyway, just saying there are better QBs than him. He's almost certainly a perennial pro bowler.

Spoken like a true football genius very well put tripp could not have said it better myself

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

I think he's a fine GM. But I mean the Redskins have gotten guys like Cooley, Taylor, Campbell, Golston, Washington, Springs, Thomas; yet we continue to bitch about stupid stuff like signing Bruce Smith seven years ago and overlook everything else.

I guess it was just my feeble attempt to say not all GM's are infallible Gods, as many here tend to believe.

Heck yeah, plus Moss, Griffin, Rabach, now Fletcher... I do like a lot of our moves, but I also think we need the stability and consistency that comes with having a knowledgeable personnel man running the FO. If we had a decent GM back when the Danny took over I doubt Bruce Smith and Deion Sanders would have ever donned the burgundy and gold.