Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

[BringBackJoeT]

Originally Posted by mheisig

As politically brilliant as I think the selection is, I'm not buying the whole "it will sway Hillary voters" bit.

Anyone who was a Hillary supporter is going to have so many problems with Palin that the only thing Hillary and Palin will have in common is that they're both women.

If that fact alone is enough to completely ignore differences with respect to EVERY other area of policy and approach, then those voters could have been swayed with the promise of cupcakes and the Palin selection was unnecessary.

What I find funny is the reaction to this. Does anyone really expect die-hard Obama fans to suddenly change their position with the Palin selection? Please.

The selection really just fortifies his voting base and is a really good grab at a lot of the independent swing voters. Anyone expecting massive upheaval or for lifetime Democrats to suddenly vote Republican are sorely mistaken.

I didn't say anything about a "massive upheaval" of Dem voters going Republican by virtue of this pick. What seems clear (certainly at this point) is that we're in store for another very close election. Independent voters, to a cliche-like extent, have been identified as key. But from the moment Obama was declared the winner of the D primary, the McCain campaign has identified pissed off Hillary voters as a potential source of some key swing votes, and they have not made any secret of that. Have they banked on getting all 18 million? Of course not. The vast, vast majority of those were cast by dyed-in-the-wool Dems who wouldn't be swayed by a Republican female VP candidate who shares, politically, almost nothing in common with them. But again, given the potentially very small margin of victory that the winner may have, McCain's camp has obviously considered that even a small percentage of Hillary primary voters could, in this election, make a huge difference.

Sure, Gov. Palin, as you say, may "solidify" McCain's base, but she was hardly the only VP candidate who could have. And given her very obvious lack of experience (putting aside for purposes of this point how that experience measures up to Obama's), she can't be said to have been the most experienced VP candidate either. She is also from a traditionally red state (Alaska went to Bush both times), so it's not like this pick was geared toward potentially picking off blue one. So, unless I'm being extremely unfair here, it appears that what the McCain camp liked most about the independently-but-not-comparatively talented Gov. Palin is that she is a woman. What's important about that, for purposes of this campaign? The pissed off Hillary, voters, that's what. The McCain camp is very aware of the very large turnout in the Dem primaries, and understands (as does everyone) that a lot of Hillary fans thought she got screwed, which is why such a big deal was made this past week about how much enthusiasm Hillary would exhibit for Obama in Denver.

Will Gov. Palin appeal to, along with the conservative base, some soccer moms, independents, and possibly a few "greens"? No doubt. But, my point is that what McCain is really after here is just a sliver of those disaffected Hillary voters, who, given their sheer numbers, would possibly make more of a numerical difference in yet another election that will probably be decided by a 1-2% margin.