Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

[Hail to the Redskins]

Originally Posted by redskins5044

The highest we can pick is 4th, that is if the Bucs, and Chiefs win. We would beat the Chiefs in SOS, but the Bucs with SOS tiebreaker v.s. us. We also hold the tiebreaker over the Browns, so if the season ended today we would have the #5 pick.

According to what I've found... our SOS is LOWER than both KC AND TAMPA....

so we'd have the 3rd overall pick.

Redskins Opp Win% - 44%
Chiefs Opp Win% - 51%
Tampa Opp Win% - 54%

Like I said... this COULD be pretty significant regarding trading down or getting Okung....

[Dirtbag59]

I'm telling guys. One of either two scenarios will play out. Either we will pick Bradford first and 2 or 3 offensive line prospects after him or we draft Okung and trade up from our second round pick to select McCoy, after which we will probably draft a few more offensive lineman. My money is on the Bradford scenario but either one is fine for me, even though I don't like 2nd round QB's.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

I'm telling guys. One of either two scenarios will play out. Either we will pick Bradford first and 2 or 3 offensive line prospects after him or we draft Okung and trade up from our second round pick to select McCoy, after which we will probably draft a few more offensive lineman. My money is on the Bradford scenario but either one is fine for me, even though I don't like 2nd round QB's.

I think the second scenario is a likelihood. Before, when we were playing well, it looked like we weren't going to pick high enough to land Okung. Now, we could be picking third or fourth, and I'd imagine that only Suh, Clausen, and Berry would come off the board prior to our pick.

[The Goat]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think the second scenario is a likelihood. Before, when we were playing well, it looked like we weren't going to pick high enough to land Okung. Now, we could be picking third or fourth, and I'd imagine that only Suh, Clausen, and Berry would come off the board prior to our pick.

I dunno it seems like every year a team is willing to go LT in the top 2 picks...from what I understand Okung is the only awesome LT talent. I would think he goes fast.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by The Goat

I dunno it seems like every year a team is willing to go LT in the top 2 picks...from what I understand Okung is the only awesome LT talent. I would think he goes fast.

Detroit might take him, but no one else that picks before us would.

Detroit's offensive line was actually pretty good this year, but what they see is what they get in Jeff Backus. Detroit has their hands full trying to develop Matt Stafford from scratch, and Calvin Johnson's development into an all time great seems far fetched at this point. I think Detroit is going to end up leaning on their current line while they rebuild the defense.

[redskins5044]

Originally Posted by Hail to the Redskins

According to what I've found... our SOS is LOWER than both KC AND TAMPA....

so we'd have the 3rd overall pick.

Redskins Opp Win% - 44%
Chiefs Opp Win% - 51%
Tampa Opp Win% - 54%

Like I said... this COULD be pretty significant regarding trading down or getting Okung....

i think im confusing myself, does it go off this years strength of schedule? also the team with the easier schedule drafts ahead of the team with the harder schedule? that makes no sense to me.

[Hail to the Redskins]

Originally Posted by redskins5044

i think im confusing myself, does it go off this years strength of schedule? also the team with the easier schedule drafts ahead of the team with the harder schedule? that makes no sense to me.

Yeah... look at it this way...

Team A: 4-12, opponents win % = 44%

Team B: 4-12, opponents win % = 54%

Which team is "crappier" and in need of the higher pick?

Team A obviously, because they played weaker teams and won only 4 games... Whereas Team B played relatively strong teams, so winning only 4 games makes "more sense"

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by redskins5044

i think im confusing myself, does it go off this years strength of schedule? also the team with the easier schedule drafts ahead of the team with the harder schedule? that makes no sense to me.

You got it right: For playoff berths, head-to-head play is important. For the draft it is unimportant outside of playoff teams, because draft position ties for non-playoff teams are broken down only by strength of schedule. So given the numbers listed above we would draft higher than KC or Tampa. I know the part about strength of schedule seems counterintuitive at first but it actually makes some sense. If your team and my team win the same number of games, yet your opponents were tougher (see strength of schedule), your team must be better. It's like a footrace in which we tie but you had farther to run, hence you must be faster.

[SouperMeister]

Originally Posted by Hail to the Redskins

According to what I've found... our SOS is LOWER than both KC AND TAMPA....

so we'd have the 3rd overall pick.

Redskins Opp Win% - 44%
Chiefs Opp Win% - 51%
Tampa Opp Win% - 54%

Like I said... this COULD be pretty significant regarding trading down or getting Okung....

I didn't realize that our SoS was so weak. That makes this season's performance even more abominable.