The Mid Round QB fallacy

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

So unless we're hoping for another miracle (Brady, Warner, Romo, Delhomme)or a slightly undervalued gem (Favre, Brees) or are hoping to find an undiscovered star (Hasselbeck, etc) then 'picking up a QB in the mid rounds' is likely not going to yield us anything beyond mediocre football in the future.

Everything is true until it isn't.
You don't have to draft top 5 to get a good QB.
And there is some room between top 5-15 and mid round.

I don't put a lot of faith in 'stats' like this because every situation is different and there are so many variables in the development and success of QB apart from where they're drafted.

I think the coach is an important factor.
I don't think Holmgren has ever taken a top 5 QB and he's developed a lot of QBs over that period.
Shanny has taken 1 top 15 QB.
Payton coached Romo then traded for Brees.
Reid drafted McNabb a special talent but groomed Kolb.
McCarthy groomed Rodgers.

On the flip side many top QBs have been drafted to bad teams with either no plan for their development or poor coaching from the QB coach or OC or HC only to fail.

I agree that you should spend a quality draft pick to aquire any good player.
But, it doesn't have to be top 5-15.
I just find the risk and cost prohibitive.