Around the NFL week 10

[Lotus]

How about Atlanta going for it on 4th down in OT? Ballsy but stupid I say and I would still think it was dumb even if they had made it.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by Lotus

How about Atlanta going for it on 4th down in OT? Ballsy but stupid I say and I would still think it was dumb even if they had made it.

Gotta kick it, 29 yard line? Not smart

[Alvin Walton]

Originally Posted by Lotus

How about Atlanta going for it on 4th down in OT? Ballsy but stupid I say and I would still think it was dumb even if they had made it.

That was idiotic. It cost them the game.

[SmootSmack]

Couldn't believe Falcons went for it. What a shameful end to a great game

Meanwhile, talk of Kolb being benched in Arizona, injury or not. That'd be insane

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Couldn't believe Falcons went for it. What a shameful end to a great game

Meanwhile, talk of Kolb being benched in Arizona, injury or not. That'd be insane

A brand new 5yr, $63M contract for John Skelton's backup? Yikes. And sadly, I envy Arizona's QB situation.

[GTripp0012]

These numbers are certain to regress in a larger sample, but I found it interesting anyway:

Net yards per passing attempt, 2011 season

Carson Palmer 9.2
Aaron Rodgers 8.8
Tom Brady 7.8

[GMScud]

I thought this number crunch of Mike Smith's 4th and 1 foot go for it call was pretty interesting. He certainly looks like a genius if they convert....

Falcons players, stats back up Mike Smith’s decision | ProFootballTalk

[GTripp0012]

If Atlanta just quarterback sneaks in that situation, its a great call.

The problem with the run there is that you have New Orleans on full sell-out, and the probability of converting drops significantly. If you aren't going to have the balls to try play action, then you're probably better off punting. But I think a QB sneak is the best call there. Better than a punt, handoff, play action, etc.

Still, I think if you don't enjoy that call, then football probably isn't your sport. I thought it was a great idea, but I'm not surprised that if you turn and hand the ball off, that you get stopped. And it saddens me, because the play and result sours a great call.

[SirClintonPortis]

I don't know. I don't think it's as stupid as one might initially think.
I think one has to consider that Drew Brees tends to go into god mode when he needs a game-winning drive. More likely than not, he marches the Saints down the field and they win anyway.

But I don't know why they did not call a quarterback sneak. They didn't need much to get the first down.

Beaten by Tripp by one minute.

[GTripp0012]

I only punt to New Orleans there if I have a great punter that can pin them inside the ten. If not, the only call is to go for it. If you get a punt blocked, give up a long return, or shank it, you're going to lose anyway.

[Alvin Walton]

The Falcons went for it on their own 30.
Maybe you try this at the opponents 45 or deeper but they gave them the ball already in field goal range.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Alvin Walton

The Falcons went for it on their own 30.
Maybe you try this at the opponents 45 or deeper but they gave them the ball already in field goal range.

It was only a few inches. A QB sneak is practically unstoppable with that kind of distance. The Falcons' mistake was opting for a slow-developing power run instead of the QB sneak.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

It was only a few inches. A QB sneak is practically unstoppable with that kind of distance. The Falcons' mistake was opting for a slow-developing power run instead of the QB sneak.

I agree that the play call was lousy and a sneak was a better call.

That said, I reject the argument that if you punt to Brees, he will beat you. the Falcons had already stopped Brees several times. It is not like the score was a 48-48 shootout. A good punt would have made Brees go a long way for the win.

If you miss on the "practically unstoppable," it is game over. The negative risk was not worth it.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Lotus

That said, I reject the argument that if you punt to Brees, he will beat you. the Falcons had already stopped Brees several times. It is not like the score was a 48-48 shootout. A good punt would have made Brees go a long way for the win.

I disagree. The Falcons stopped Brees once in overtime. However, the Saints were able to sustain three long drives on the Falcons on three of their scoring possessions in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

First Saints drive in the 2nd half:
Missed FG at the ATL 22
Drive started at the NO 18

Second Saints drive in the 2nd half:
Touchdown
Drive started at the NO 18

Third Saints drive
FG from turnover. Drive stated on the ATL 26

4th drive
FG on a drive that started from the NO 12

5th Saints drive
Onside kick gives Saints good field position at the ATL 44. They got to the ATL 27 and kicked a FG, but a holding call screwed them over.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Lotus

If you miss on the "practically unstoppable," it is game over. The negative risk was not worth it.

I would say it depends. If it is 50/50, aka 50%, you don't take the risk. But if the risk of failure is only 1 in 10, I think it's a risk worth taking. And with QB sneaks, they truly are really hard to stop.

Advanced NFL Stats: QB Sneak vs. RB Dive
According to here, out of 31 attempt QB sneaks with 1 yard to go, 82% of them succeed. Or they work about 4 out of 5 times.