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12-16-2011, 05:39 PM
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Living Legend
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Evanston, IL
Age: 37
Posts: 15,994
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Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
The hit to bust rate is about two-thirds hits to one third busts for the years 2002-2007 for first rounders that aren't also top ten picks. That's just a back of the napkin calculation that I did.
To recap: about 80% hits for top ten players about 65% hits for 11-32. I'm going to do a value analysis to see if the chances of getting a "big time" player in the top ten are much better than those odds.
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according to a source with knowledge of the situation. |
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