What is Matt Flynn Worth to the Redskins

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by tc2deuce

RGIII is a game changer plus he brings excitement back to DC.

I believe he is to. If we could look back with hindsight and say that Matt Flynn is to the Redskins what Trent Green was to the Chiefs then I would say it was all worth it.

I still would strongly prefer RGIII though even with the cost of picks to move up to acquire him.

[diehard]

I hope Kiper is right.

[REDSKINS4ever]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Gotcha.

I just don't see how first rounders are any sort of guarantee.

There are plenty of notable busts that show otherwise.

Mattyk, you're absolutely right. The Tim Couches, Ryan Leafs, Joey Harringtons and David Carrs, Matt Leinart, and maybe Vince Young to name a few have busted big time. But then there are others like Peyton Manning, Rex Grossman, Trent Dilfer, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers with each of these former 1st round selected QBs making it to the Super Bowl since 2004.

All QBs don't succeed and all of them don't bust either.

And here we are again, with two former 1st overall selections with Eli Manning and Alex Smith about to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and there's a good chance Joe Flacco, another first round selection possibly making it to the Super Bowl also.

All I'm saying is from the 2004 season to the 2011 season(8 seasons), there will be a first round draft pick quarterback playing in the Super Bowl. Success comes from drafting a quarterback in the first round.

[theJBexperience]

Time to get testy.

Originally Posted by sportscurmudgeon

You cannot argue with data; you are absolutely correct.

Here is some more data you cannot argue with. Here are first round QB picks over the last decade or so who have been "less than satisfactory":

Tim Couch
Akili Smith
Duante Culpepper (injury ended his career early)
Cade McNown
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey (fondly remembered around here...)
Byron Leftwich (not horrible but not great either)
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman (you already have a first round pick in town; why worry about getting another one)
JP Losman
Jason Campbell (Skins ditched that first round pick...)
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn

Here's another list. You can find data to support any argument. These are 1st Round QBs from the last decade or so who have been more than satisfactory.

Peyton Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Aaron Rodgers
Mike Vick
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Donovan McNabb
Jay Cutler
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Carson Palmer
Chad Pennington
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Joe Flacco
Josh Freeman


And then if we need even more data. We can go back a bit further and find some more stellar 1st Round QBs.

John Elway
Dan Marino
Sammy Baugh
Otto Graham
Terry Bradshaw
Doug Williams
Troy Aikman
Drew Bledsoe
Jim Kelly
Jim Plunkett
Joe Namath
Len Dawson
Phil Simms
Roman Gabriel
John Brodie
Bob Griese
Earl Morrall
Bert Jones
YA Tittle
Archie Manning

Don't you love lists?

[SirClintonPortis]

Re: The "list war" on this page.

The 1st round QB is a dangerous minefield, but it's a relatively safer minefield than other "fields" such as FA or trade. The difference between success or bust with a first round QB comes down to scouting and evaluating the mental makeup of the prospect.

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

Re: The "list war" on this page.

The 1st round QB is a dangerous minefield, but it's a relatively safer minefield than other "fields" such as FA or trade. The difference between success or bust with a first round QB comes down to scouting and evaluating the mental makeup of the prospect.

I don't think most are opposed to taking a QB in the first round. It's the part about giving up 4 or more picks to move up that causes anxiety. Seems to be about a 50/50 proposition on picking the right guy.

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by 30gut

My point was and remains that if Flynn is successful in this offense its gonna because of his physical skillset not because the schemes are 'very similar'.
Which was a point being made here:

Valuing schematic familiarity over skillset.

Here's what I said then in response to the above quote:

I was pointing out that I don't fall in love with a guy's "gifts", such as Jeff George's arm or Kyle Boller's ability to throw a football 60 yards in the air from his knees. I also pointed out that Rivers throws like a girl and Brady looked like a dufus at the combine. Had nothing to do with putting more value on scheme.

[NYCskinfan82]

Originally Posted by skinsguy

Just a couple of thoughts:

Joe Montana - 4 Super Bowl rings: 3rd round draft pick, 82nd overall pick.
Tom Brady - 3 Super Bowl rings (and can possibly add a fourth) 6th round pick, #199.
Roger Staubach - 2 Super Bowl rings - 10th round draft pick
Bart Starr - 2 Super Bowl Rings - 17th round draft pick
Brett Favre - 1 Super Bowl Ring - 2nd Round pick
Joe Theismann - 1 Super Bowl Ring - 4th Round Pick

Of the six I mentioned, four have multiple Super Bowl rings. All have had multiple Super Bowl appearances. Of the ten multiple super bowl winning quarterbacks, four of them are not 1st round picks. And out of the four quarterbacks with the most super bowl wins (3 or more), two are on this list, the other two are first rounders.

Just another tidbit, of the three quarterbacks to have played in multiple Super Bowls and lose them all, two of them are first round picks (Jim Kelly and Craig Morton.)

While no doubt quarterbacks who are first round picks for the most part are first round picks because they're pretty doggone good. But, I think there are many aspects to a quarterback being developed into that great Championship quarterback other than just them being highly recognized coming out of college.

I think a lot also depends upon how much work that quarterback puts into making himself better after he turns pro - no matter if he's a first or a 7th round pick. So, I completely believe that there are quarterbacks that aren't highly regarded coming out of college, but can obviously work hard and move themselves into an elite status. And, it also has a lot to do with who those coaches are that is present during that development stage. I think it could come down to simply having the right coaches there and the guy who's willing to put 110% into improving himself. SO, I don't know if I would say you're virtually guaranteed a great quarterback in the first round.

Good read, good post.

[NYCskinfan82]

Question, how many teams traded up for there 1st round QB or did the QB fall to them at their pick.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

I was pointing out that I don't fall in love with a guy's "gifts"

I get the feeling you have no recollection of the coversation we had.
Because if you're only point was to state that you don't fall in love with a guy's 'gifts'.
Then you could have posted that as a stand alone statement and not in response to what I wrote:

I think you should care about their system and their talent because its the context in which Flynn is being evaluated.
If you're saying you like Flynn because of his physical skillset then by all means dismiss the context.
But, if you like Flynn because of his production you'd better play close attention to the system and the talent where he amassed that production.
Because rest assured you're signing/trading Flynn's physical skillset not his production.
And imo Flynn skillset suggest that he's more of the quintessential 'system' QB then he is a scheme diverse physically gifted QB.
And if you're signing a system QB you'd better be able to replicate the the pieces of that system (caoching/gameplanning/playcalling/talent (receiving corps/OL etc) if you want similar results.

BTW-I don't "fall in love with a guy's 'gifts'" either

[REDSKINS4ever]

Originally Posted by NYCskinfan82

Question, how many teams traded up for there 1st round QB or did the QB fall to them at their pick.

Most of the time, I think the QB fell to them. In 2004, Eli Manning was the first selected by the Chargers. Phillip Rivers fell to the Giants. Big Ben, who I think was drafted somewhere between 9th and 11th, fell to the Steelers. In 2006, Matt Leinart was selected 10th overall by Arizona. Vince Young was drafted 7 selections before Leinart by the Titans. In 2007 there were only two quarterbacks selected in the first round(JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn) selected by the Raiders and Browns respectively. Only 2 quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 2008 draft(Matt Ryan 3rd overall) and (Joe Flacco 18th overall).

The following year in 2009, Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman were the only quarterbacks selected in round 1 of the draft. Each of them fell to the team that selected them with the Bucs trading back and still landing Freeman. In 2010, only Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow were the only quarterbacks who were first round draft choices. And the Rams took Bradford with the every first pick of the draft while Tebow fell to Denver.

Which leads me to the 2011 draft. Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder were the only Quarterbacks taken in the first round. Of course, Newton was the very first draft choice taken. Locker, Gabbert, and Ponder all fell to the team's that drafted them with Gabbert landing to 10th which was the Redskins original draft slot in the first round before trading back in a deal with Jacksonville.

And onto the 2012 draft. With Landry Jones and Matt Barkley deciding to stay in school for their senior campaigns, only Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III will be drafted high in the first round. Tannehill, Weedon, and Foles could go in the first round, but that's doubtful. This is the only draft in recent years where a team will potentially trade up to select a quarterback in the draft.

[Ruhskins]

I thought the Broncos traded back into the first round with the Pats to get Tebow, b/c they thought the Bills or some other team was going to get him at the top of the 2nd round.

Sent from my Samsung Epic 4G.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

And the Jets traded up for Sanchez. He didn't fall.

[sportscurmudgeon]

Originally Posted by theJBexperience

Time to get testy.



Here's another list. You can find data to support any argument. These are 1st Round QBs from the last decade or so who have been more than satisfactory.

Peyton Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Aaron Rodgers
Mike Vick
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Donovan McNabb
Jay Cutler
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Carson Palmer
Chad Pennington
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Joe Flacco
Josh Freeman


And then if we need even more data. We can go back a bit further and find some more stellar 1st Round QBs.

John Elway
Dan Marino
Sammy Baugh
Otto Graham
Terry Bradshaw
Doug Williams
Troy Aikman
Drew Bledsoe
Jim Kelly
Jim Plunkett
Joe Namath
Len Dawson
Phil Simms
Roman Gabriel
John Brodie
Bob Griese
Earl Morrall
Bert Jones
YA Tittle
Archie Manning

Don't you love lists?

You missed the point of my previous listing of first round QBs who were "less than successful. A previous posting said that you had to go that way because that was the way to get a great QB - - and a great QB was a necessity for the Redskins.

My list was intended to show that when teams have taken QBs in the first round of the draft over the last decade or so, lots of them have been ordinary - - or even worse. The list intended to show that drafting a QB high in the first round did not always produce desired results.

I have tried to suggest to folks here that the important thing is for the FO and the coaching staff to focus on getting a QB who will be successful. You can do that through free agency (Drew Brees, Michael Vick, Trent Green, Kurt Warner and John Unitas) but you can also make bad choices in free agency (Jeff George and Steve Walsh for example)

You can trade for successful QBs (Matt Cassell and Philip Rivers) but you can also trade for unsuccessful ones (Donovan McNabb - - here and in Minnesota - -, Mark Brunell, Kevin Kolb).

And you can draft successful QBs in the first round ( at about a 50%^ success rate) or you can draft a gut-bomb in the first round.

The important thing to realize is that it is not the path by which a team acquires a QB that is important; it is the acumen and the insight provided by the scouts and the FO to the coaches that makes the acquisition successful.

OH, you got a bit carried away on your list. Roman Gabriel was hardly a highly successful QB in the NFL in terms of wins and losses...

[theJBexperience]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

I don't think most are opposed to taking a QB in the first round. It's the part about giving up 4 or more picks to move up that causes anxiety. Seems to be about a 50/50 proposition on picking the right guy.

Where does four or more picks keep coming from? Only three picks involved to get the Eli Manning/Philip Rivers deal done a few years ago. I can't see it escalating that much to four or more.