Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

[The Zimmermans]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I don't have the exact numbers, but I read somewhere (I'll attempt to find a link, it was either on ESPN.com or Football Outsiders) that the Skins offense has decreased in every passing category except TDs, including 3rd down conversion pct.

3rd down conversions and three and outs are not the same thing

[mike340]

Unfortunately, our defense has also been very successful at avoiding 3 and outs.

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Our 3 and outs are pretty much the same under Campbell as they were under Brunell.

Our offense has done a good job this year avoiding 3 and outs.

[SmootSmack]

Here is the team's 3rd conversions in Brunell's last 4 starts versus Campbell's first four.


vs. Tennessee 5-12
vs. Indy 6-14 (2-2 4th down)
vs. Dallas 5-13 (0-1 4th down)
vs. Philly 3-13

vs. Tampa 4-13 (2-2 4th down)
vs. Carolina 4-15
vs. Atl 6-14
vs. Philly 7-16

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

Here is the team's 3rd conversions in Brunell's last 4 starts versus Campbell's first four.


vs. Tennessee 5-12
vs. Indy 6-14 (2-2 4th down)
vs. Dallas 5-13 (0-1 4th down)
vs. Philly 3-13

vs. Tampa 4-13 (2-2 4th down)
vs. Carolina 4-15
vs. Atl 6-14
vs. Philly 7-16

45% for Brunell, 36% for Campbell.

I would be interested to see if Brunell's last four games are consistent with his first five games. Ideally, you want the sample size to be bigger than 4 games, but with JC thats all you have.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

45% for Brunell, 36% for Campbell.

I would be interested to see if Brunell's last four games are consistent with his first five games. Ideally, you want the sample size to be bigger than 4 games, but with JC thats all you have.

vs. Minnesota 4-13
vs. Dallas 2-14
vs. Houston 9-13
vs. Jacksonville 7-14
vs. Giants 3-11 (0-1 on 4th down)

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

vs. Minnesota 4-13
vs. Dallas 2-14
vs. Houston 9-13
vs. Jacksonville 7-14
vs. Giants 3-11 (0-1 on 4th down)

38%. Hmm. One must wonder if this trend may show that Campbell will also start coverting 3rd downs more efficiently now.

Can't really say anything conclusive, but its something to watch for.

[mike340]

I think you mean 36.5% Brunell vs. 36.2% Campbell. (They had 52 third-down situations, not 42 in Brunell's last 4 games.)

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

45% for Brunell, 36% for Campbell.

I would be interested to see if Brunell's last four games are consistent with his first five games. Ideally, you want the sample size to be bigger than 4 games, but with JC thats all you have.

[Redskin]

Originally Posted by mike340

I think you mean 36.5% Brunell vs. 36.2% Campbell. (They had 52 third-down situations, not 42 in Brunell's last 4 games.)

Guys honestly there is no question that Brunnel would win more games then campbell right now, the price of having a rookie. Dont judge Campbell now though judge him next year when you are wishing we kept Brunnel

[12thMan]

Originally Posted by Redskin

Guys honestly there is no question that Brunnel would win more games then campbell right now, the price of having a rookie. Dont judge Campbell now though judge him next year when you are wishing we kept Brunnel

How do you figure there's no question?

I think if there wasn't any question, Joe Gibbs doesn't bench Brunell. Seems pretty simple to me.

[RobH4413]

Just cause I'm bored.

Brunell
vs. Tennessee 5-12 (30th ranked pass defense)
vs. Indy 6-14 (2-2 4th down) (3rd ranked pass defense)
vs. Dallas 5-13 (0-1 4th down) (21st ranked pass defense)
vs. Philly 3-13 (4th ranked pass defense)

Campbell
vs. Tampa 4-13 (2-2 4th down) (10th ranked pass defense)
vs. Carolina 4-15 (6th ranked pass defense)
vs. Atl 6-14 (25th ranked pass defense)
vs. Philly 7-16 (4th ranked pass defesne)

Got the rankings from Ask The Commish.com - Statistical Power Ranking

I don't know how respectible this website is, but I just thought it was something to throw out there. Now that I did it, it really doesn't provide me any insight, except that it's probably a pretty good comparison of the two.

IMO it seems that Brunell probably would have finished the season a little better, but I still think we wouldn't have made the play-offs (all speculation of course). I'm hoping JC's learning curve starts to kick it into overtime over the off-season, and that he can really develop some timing with his receivers.

I'm pretty optimistic about next season. The draft should provide us with some upgrades on defense, and assuming we keep our core players... the unit should be hungry in 2007. Mabye we'll get a few more turn-overs next year. That would be nice.

[Oakland Red]

Betts and Duckett represent a Gibbs type of backfield. I think that Portis will be traded, contingent on there being a really good offer. Gibbs himself said he didn't know that Betts had the ability he later discovered him to have, after he traded for Portis. I think that is a pretty telling statement.

[724Skinsfan]

Originally Posted by Oakland Red

Betts and Duckett represent a Gibbs type of backfield. I think that Portis will be traded, contingent on there being a really good offer. Gibbs himself said he didn't know that Betts had the ability he later discovered him to have, after he traded for Portis. I think that is a pretty telling statement.

The trade would have to be pretty amazing to let CP go. First rounder (fill our CB and DT/DE needs with two slections?) and maybe some player to be named layer (special teamer, safety,reserve linebacker). I would be dissappointed if this happened but they don't pay me for my opinion.

[The Zimmermans]

Brunell's passes for first downs in last four games:
8 Tennessee
12 Indy
10 Dallas
6 Philly

Campbell's passes for 1st downs:
12 Tampa
3!!!!! yikes Carolina
13 Atlanta
10 Philadelphia

Very Comparable

[The Zimmermans]

what makes you think we would have won those games with brunell, just give me something here.....QB rating does not equal victories

[Hog1]

I'm a Brunell guy (although it was totally time to put JC in), and nothing I have read makes me think there is any ABSOLUTE reasoning that MB could have won anything that JC has not. Who is to say that the D and the O-line responded better to JC than MB. That is the rumor around Redskin park. JC still makes rookie mistakes, and will continue to for a while. He definately adds a dimension that MB seemed to have lost.