Brandon Marshall anyone

[over the mountain]

i will pass on brandon marshall. hes one of about 10 guys in the nfl i think are not worth it, no matter how much talent he brings. would like to see him balmore though.

go skins!!

[ChickenMonkey]

Id go Brandon Marshall for Santana Moss straight up! Marshall is a #1 reciever, something we havent had in yrs. If you think he cant change our pass offense, youre just BSing yourself... A good #1 reciever doesnt need a great QB..Take a look at the WR in Texas(whos thier QB?) exactly!and who cares. The offense with Marshall, Thomas,Cooley and Randle El in the slot is alot more intimidating...

[vallin21]

Originally Posted by ChickenMonkey

Id go Brandon Marshall for Santana Moss straight up! Marshall is a #1 reciever, something we havent had in yrs. If you think he cant change our pass offense, youre just BSing yourself... A good #1 reciever doesnt need a great QB..Take a look at the WR in Texas(whos thier QB?) exactly!and who cares. The offense with Marshall, Thomas,Cooley and Randle El in the slot is alot more intimidating...

I would not take a chance on this kid. His immaturity is through the roof, but I think he'll realize through a trade (a la Randy Moss) that this will be his final chance wherever he goes and he'll excell.

[stu_nna]

Originally Posted by Skins4Eva

Brandon Marshall wants out of Denver. This is some kind of pipe dream buy could you imagine him as the Number 1 Reciever with Moss at the two and Randel El I the slot?!! The price is reportedly a first and a third in 2010. Would you guys make that trade?

This question seems crazy. Why would you? I realize we don't have a top flight receiver but we got other needs across the board. Plus doesn't he come with alot of drama?

[ethat001]

Well, a 1st and 3rd is CRAZY.

BUT, I'd love to have a real #1 WR. He's 6'4" and a beast. I'd agree with giving them Moss and a 3rd or even 2nd draft pick, maybe throw in a prospect like Kelly or M.Mitchell. Marshall is only 25 and could really help out JC. His off field issues are a concern, but I'm hopeful.. Heck, we paid $100 mil for AH and he's got a ton of off-field issues some of which are still pending..

The other guys are OLD. P.Burress will be 32yo, Chad Johnson is 31yo. Not worth it.

All this being said, Denver would NEVER trade him. He's under contract, and he's an incredible weapon. They got rid of Jay Cutler because he was a whiner and the McDaniels didn't like him in his system. You can always use a good WR in any system.

[diehardskin2982]

he won't be traded... I'd take Plax first atleast wee could give him a 1 year deal.

[skins89moss]

Originally Posted by diehardskin2982

he won't be traded... I'd take Plax first atleast wee could give him a 1 year deal.

Why bring in all the drama with Burress? He was a problem after the Giants won the Super Bowl. He was late to meetings and got fined by the Giants. Later on as we know he shot himself in the leg at the night club. HE IS NOT A ROOKIE. Burress has been in the league for at least 8 yrs and still cant figure it out yet. This guy won't change his ways cause he has been given special treatment since he could play football. Lets stay away from this type of player cause he can't be counted on. Oh yea he might be doing some prison time. I rather lose with our WR than have this fool on our team.

[NYCskinfan82]

Stay put with what we have do not i repeat do not give up any draft picks our WR will be better just give JC more time come on OL.

[ethat001]

Drafting WR is like gambling in Vegas, except MUCH worse odds. Just ask the Lions - or ask US (Rod Gardner, Mike Westbrook). We wasted TWO 1st rounders. I think getting good and *young* talent by free agency makes sense if you only have a 50% chance of drafting a gem. Santana Moss was a prime example, and I think most ppl like that trade.

Here's a great article about the bust-rate of draft picks:

First-Round Bust Percentages
QB -- 53 percent
RB -- 49 percent
WR -- 45 percent
DT -- 33 percent
OL -- 31 percent
DE -- 31 percent
CB -- 29 percent
LB -- 16 percent
S -- 11 percent

sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/wrapup/070425&sportCat=nfl

Crunching the Numbers: First-Round WRs, 1989-2003
Number of WRs drafted: 51
Notable busts: J.J. Stokes, Ike Hilliard, Reidel Anthony, R. Jay Soward, Marcus Nash, David Terrell, Charles Rogers
Number of busts: 23
Bust percentage: 45 percent
Number of wideouts with at least one Pro Bowl appearance: 16
Pro Bowl percentage: 31 percent
Teams with multiple busts: Broncos, Redskins

sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/receivers/070425

[ethat001]

So by the numbers above, you'd be wasting a potential $30 million guaranteed money on a QB, RB or WR who only has a 50 PERCENT chance of making it in the NFL. Makes someone proven like Marshall seem worth it.

Signing a YOUNG vet like Haynesworth to $40 mil guaranteed, Hall to $20 mil guaranteed -- I think these make more sense for young proven stars. I don't disagree with the front office with this strategy. It's more expensive, but maybe more worth it. It seems like the draft is a better deal for low round picks if you can pick a gem like Horton.

"The bottom five will surprise fans most. The worst drafting team in the past three years, holding on to only a little more than half of its drafted players: the New England Patriots. With three Super Bowl wins since 2001, the Patriots are the team of the decade so far. They boast a 39-9 record in the past three years. How have they maintained that excellence? Though saddled with low draft picks, the Patriots have been the masters of picking up useful veterans via trades to fill holes in their lineup (see: receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker).

Third worst is another surprise: the world champion Pittsburgh Steelers, with only 58% of their drafted players still on the team and no All-Pros among them. Like the Patriots, the perennially contending Steelers usually have a low draft spot, but they have fulfilled their needs by finding and developing excellent undrafted rookies over the years, like running back Willie Parker and linebacker James Harrison, the 2008 defensive player of the year.

The bottom line: Drafting NFL-caliber players is very important, but it doesn't necessarily equal success on the field. Finding other strategies to plug the gaps, like the Patriots and Steelers have done, is essential. So don't judge your team's success at the end of draft day. Wait to see how it all plays out--and watch for what your team does to boost draft deficiencies."

forbes.com/2009/04/08/nfl-draft-teams-lifestyle-sports-nfl-draft.html

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by ethat001

So by the numbers above, you'd be wasting a potential $30 million guaranteed money on a QB, RB or WR who only has a 50 PERCENT chance of making it in the NFL. Makes someone proven like Marshall seem worth it.

Signing a YOUNG vet like Haynesworth to $40 mil guaranteed, Hall to $20 mil guaranteed -- I think these make more sense for young proven stars. I don't disagree with the front office with this strategy. It's more expensive, but maybe more worth it. It seems like the draft is a better deal for low round picks if you can pick a gem like Horton.

Well, $30 million isn't exactly the average amount of guaranteed money for a first round player. It's like, the average of the top three picks. But the bust rate in the top three is, obviously, significantly lower than in the rest of the round.

I've also found, in the past, that the way you need to define a bust to make the overall rate 50%+, seems to be more heavily based on expectations than actual results. The true bust rate in the first round seems to be closer to 20% over the last five years or so, (5-6 players per round), although, admittedly much higher at the WR position. I'm just not of the mind that a 1st round pick that produces at a 3rd round level [like Robert Gallery] for 7-8 seasons deserves the same tag as a guy who is out of the league [pick your favorite Mike Williams] in two seasons.

And then of course, the study does label guys like Koren Robinson and Peter Warrick busts, though they do meet the non-bust criteria. Still, a 40% bust rate on WRs means you do always risk drafting a non-player in the draft.

Still, unless 100 receptions is a magical, automatic sort of figure, I'd say that a guy like Marshall could still find himself on the wrong side of that 45%. Not that it's likely that a guy with consecutive 100 reception seasons can't hold his own, but nothing he's done would make it a certainty that he's going to stay near the top of the league in receiving.

The draft is an excellent value from picks 9 and on. For teams picking in the top 8...you just have to do your homework and make sure you draft a contributor. The bust rate is pretty low in the top 8 picks, and the signing bonuses are obscenely high, and this combination makes it crippling for teams to draft a bust in the top quarter of the first round. Not that I'm suggesting anything that isn't already obvious.

[GTripp0012]

Here's all the wide receivers drafted within the top three picks in the last 20 years:

1. Keyshawn Johnson
2. Charles Rogers
3. Andre Johnson
4. Larry Fitzgerald
5. Braylon Edwards
6. Calvin Johnson

11 pro bowls between these guys, with only one bust. I'd say the conversion rate on elite-level college wide receivers has been pretty good. After the first three picks though, those 30 million signing bonuses, then busts mix in pretty evenly with successful players.

[ethat001]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Here's all the wide receivers drafted within the top three picks in the last 20 years:

1. Keyshawn Johnson
2. Charles Rogers
3. Andre Johnson
4. Larry Fitzgerald
5. Braylon Edwards
6. Calvin Johnson

11 pro bowls between these guys, with only one bust. I'd say the conversion rate on elite-level college wide receivers has been pretty good. After the first three picks though, those 30 million signing bonuses, then busts mix in pretty evenly with successful players.

GTripp -- nice work on that list. I'd salivate over having one of those. I guess if you have an elite WR you'd be willing to draft top 3 & give up a $30 million bonus, they are probably worth it.

I still think with the typical draft bust percentages -- that unless your front office is better than the rest of the league at spotting top talent -- it makes more sense to get *young* free agents like Marshall. You may pay more, but you're much more likely to get a winner.

I still wouldn't just give away our draft, but I value proven *young* FA far more than risky & costly draft picks.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Here's all the wide receivers drafted within the top three picks in the last 20 years:

1. Keyshawn Johnson
2. Charles Rogers
3. Andre Johnson
4. Larry Fitzgerald
5. Braylon Edwards
6. Calvin Johnson

11 pro bowls between these guys, with only one bust. I'd say the conversion rate on elite-level college wide receivers has been pretty good. After the first three picks though, those 30 million signing bonuses, then busts mix in pretty evenly with successful players.

Why don't people tout Andre Johnson more? He doesn't get in trouble and he doesn't have a huge mouth, so the media doesn't pay attention to him. They guy is a freak and as good as any offensive player in the NFL, IMO.

[SBXVII]

Umm. Can we all keep one thing in mind when comparing JC to others......Gibbs didn't let him play right out of the box. So numbers don't mean anything. Also Big Ben has been in the same offense for his whole career JC has not. I'm not trying to make a crutch for JC, heck I was hoping we would have picked up Sanchez but I do understand the fact that he has had to learn while playing and trying to get comfortable with the offenses he's been in. Hopefully this yr he learns more and is more comfortable and has a better 2min drill.