The Sam Howell Thread

[GridIron26]

Originally Posted by mooby

Just peering into the stats a bit trying to figure out why Terry Mac is in a funk - he's dropping more passes than typical this year and he looks out of sync with Sam.

First thing I see is Terry Mac has 60 catches on 97 targets. He's by far Sam's most targeted receiver (next highest is Dotson with 69 targets) and yet for whatever reason that catch rate is abysmal compared to our other receivers.

Terry - 60/97 (catches/targets)
C. Samuel - 47/63
Dotson - 42/69
Logan T - 45/62
B.Rob - 29/36
A. Gibson - 33/39
Dyami Brown - 11/21

Now obviously Sam loves to spread the ball around - we have 11 different players who have received at least 14 targets. But Terry has 97! targets (still lower than league leading receivers like Tyreek Hill/Ceedee Lamb) and only 60 catches for 694 yards, which is half what Hill has.

Just for comparison - top 5 receivers by stats this year:

Tyreek Hill: 88 rec, 120 targets, 1324 yards, 10 td's
Ceedee Lamb: 90 catches, 121 targets, 1182 yards, 7 td's
Keenan Allen: 97 catches, 129 targets, 1117 yards, 7 td's
A.J. Brown: 73 catches, 105 targets, 1050 yards, 7 td's
DJ Moore: 70 catches, 93 targets, 1003 yards, 6 td's
....
Terry Mac: 60 catches, 97 targets, 694 yards, 2 td's

He's having a down year and I can't tell if it's because he's out of sync with Sam Howell or if he's playing hurt, or if it's Bieniemy's scheme. But something's off. I don't want to say it's because Howell throws inaccurate passes (he does on occasion, but Howell also has a 66% completion rate which is pretty good). But there's definitely room for improvement. Terry's long for the season is 36 yards too which isn't great.

Going into a bit of a deeper dive (thanks to PFR) historically Terry's YPC looks like this: 15.8, 12.9, 13.7, 15.5 - this year it's 11.6 which would be a new low for him. His catch rate for 2023 is 61.9% which apparently is not far off his career average of 62.5%. Compared to the greats though it's not in the same level - Tyreek Hill's career average is 68.7%, Stefon Diggs' career average is 69% (nice), Travis Kelce's career average is 71.6%.

Terry's yards after catch per reception is down as well - historically it was 3.7yac/r, 5.5, 4.1, 5.1, but this year it's 3.4. He also has tied his career high for drops in a season with 5 this year and we still have 5 games left. His percentage of drops this year is also higher than ever - 5.2 this year compared to 4.3, 2.2, 3.8, and 2.5 in 2022.

TL;DR: Statistically he's having a down year as well. Not a huge deal seeing as how this is a wasted year anyways but if we are to be better next year he needs to regain his playmaking form. His yards after catch was always a big part of his game but this year it's almost nonexistant. He's always had good hands but this year he's on rate to drop more passes than ever. And obviously the glaring stats - he hasn't had a dominant game in over a year - every elite WR has at least one every year. We need more from him.

Those are good data, nice job!

[MTK]

I won’t be shocked if we learn after the season that Terry has been playing hurt all year with that toe injury

[AnonEmouse]

Out of curiosity do you have the number/rate of drops for those receivers? Targets are one thing, but if we're seeing consistently tight coverage, how many of those targets are uncatchable? Maybe that speaks to the effectiveness of the scheme, that the QB and receivers are getting the numbers they are despite the scheme (not getting open) not because of it?

I also think everyone is having a down year playing under lame duck coaches (potentially including EB). The numbers may not be regression as much as depression...

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by AnonEmouse

Out of curiosity do you have the number/rate of drops for those receivers? Targets are one thing, but if we're seeing consistently tight coverage, how many of those targets are uncatchable? Maybe that speaks to the effectiveness of the scheme, that the QB and receivers are getting the numbers they are despite the scheme (not getting open) not because of it?

I also think everyone is having a down year playing under lame duck coaches (potentially including EB). The numbers may not be regression as much as depression...

If you use this https://espnanalytics.com/rtm/ and sort by catch you can see how all receivers are performing based on expected catch rate. Terry is doing pretty well. But if you sort by open he is just not getting open as much. That leads me to believe toe injury? But his history suggests he hasn't been great at getting open through his career minus his rookie year.

Interesting from Mooby's stats is that Tyreek is the outlier. He isn't top ten in any metric although he is close on getting open.

[Chico23231]

Been less impressed with our receivers this year than Howell performance

Dotson has been a ghost in some games this year and Terry, based on Keim and others film review, is not getting separation like he has in the past

[sdskinsfan2001]

How do guys just forget how to get separation? Very weird to have basically a team wide dip in that statistic.

[skinsfaninok]

I think Terry is hurt , he has to be. Dude has been a ghost

[Chief X_Phackter]

I think it's EB. The only thing that has looked pretty good since he took over as OC is how many yards Howell throws for. Literally everything else is 'off'. He can exit stage right right along with RR in January. I've seen enough.

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by Chief X_Phackter

I think it's EB. The only thing that has looked pretty good since he took over as OC is how many yards Howell throws for. Literally everything else is 'off'. He can exit stage right right along with RR in January. I've seen enough.

At this point its a black eye on EB because it just shows how unbalanced his scheme is; SH is reaping the benefits of it but in reality its not a winning formula.

If we had a more balanced attack, sacks would be down SH yards would be down but we probably have more wins.

Leading in total yards is really not a great measuring stick of success; its QBR and last time i checked SH was 20 something in the league rating.

I still think we have something in SH we have nothing in EB. If EB is out of the league next year would not be shocked. He MIGHT be a RB coach or QB coach somewhere. He is straight up fools gold.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by mredskins

At this point its a black eye on EB because it just shows how unbalanced his scheme is; SH is reaping the benefits of it but in reality its not a winning formula.

If we had a more balanced attack, sacks would be down SH yards would be down but we probably have more wins.

Leading in total yards is really not a great measuring stick of success; its QBR and last time i checked SH was 20 something in the league rating.

I still think we have something in SH we have nothing in EB. If EB is out of the league next year would not be shocked. He MIGHT be a RB coach or QB coach somewhere. He is straight up fools gold.

Don't you think being down in QBR is a detriment on Howell as well?

I have no stake or care about EB, but I don't get this idea that he has contributed nothing to Howell's success or that somehow Howell is creating his own success in a vacuum.

I do agree with your point that everyone seems to get too enamored with total yards and it should not be a measuring stick for success in a QB.

[MTK]

EB gets some credit for developing a 5th rounder in his first year starting no doubt.

There are legit gripes to have with the way he’s coordinating the offense as a whole, but I think Sam’s growth is a big plus on EB’s resume.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by MTK

EB gets some credit for developing a 5th rounder in his first year starting no doubt.

There are legit gripes to have with the way he’s coordinating the offense as a whole, but I think Sam’s growth is a big plus on EB’s resume.

There were many "experts" that picked them to go 2-15 or 3-14.. Some had Jacoby taking over after a few games.

EB has def made a big impact on Howell.

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

There were many "experts" that picked them to go 2-15 or 3-14.. Some had Jacoby taking over after a few games.

EB has def made a big impact on Howell.

The “experts” were not “far off”. Lol

[mredskins]

SH hasn’t played well in awhile

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by mredskins

SH hasn’t played well in awhile

Yeah which is not encouraging


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