ESPN: Clayton Expects Skins to Tender Campbell for a 1st and 3rd

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I really think he ought to have a higher market than that, but if that was the best offer out there, AND, we knew we would get Shanny's choice of QB in the draft, then those picks would come in nice to fill out some position depth. Along those same lines what about this year and next year's 3rd for JC. The value is about the same, but might get a nice player with the extra 3rd next year.

- sidenote -
I am still really excited to see how this new draft format plays out, I think Friday between the first and second/third rounds will have the potential for a lot of wheeling and dealing to get our draft board set up for Friday night and Saturday.

The possibility is there to see more trades than we've seen in awhile. I don't think I'd settle for less than a 2nd and 4th for JC.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I really think he ought to have a higher market than that, but if that was the best offer out there, AND, we knew we would get Shanny's choice of QB in the draft, then those picks would come in nice to fill out some position depth. Along those same lines what about this year and next year's 3rd for JC. The value is about the same, but might get a nice player with the extra 3rd next year.

- sidenote -
I am still really excited to see how this new draft format plays out, I think Friday between the first and second/third rounds will have the potential for a lot of wheeling and dealing to get our draft board set up for Friday night and Saturday.

omg we need all of the linemen we can get guys should love something like this, but they're typically the ones that want campbell back no matter what

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

How about JC for a 3rd and 4th? I would probably go for that.

I was thinking the following trade if it was offered.

Redskins give up:
Jason Campbell, 2011 3rd Rounder, 2010 4th Rounder

Redskins get:
2010 2nd Rounder

I personally don't see anyone giving a straight up 2nd round pick for JC. We'd probably have to sweeten the pot. Still the idea of relying on a rookie QB so soon makes me nervous. We would possibly have to look at veterans to start in the meantime. This type of trade would be really useful especially if it was with the Rams.

I've recently started to scale back on my support for JC (which is constantly on a roller coaster). However in reading something like this I can't help but think that we really won't be that much better:

2009 Season Outlook
It's unfair to judge Garrard too harshly for his 2008 numbers. The interior of the Jacksonville offensive line, previously a strength, was pummeled by injury early in the season, leading Garrard to the ignominious crown of most knocked-down quarterback of the year. Despite the heat, Garrard managed a decent completion percentage (61.1) and finished 10th in the NFL in passing yards. The Jags have concerns at tackle for '09 but did use their first two picks on Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, and they should rely heavily on those rookies. But unless Torry Holt finds the Fountain of Youth or another receiver steps up, Garrard won't be a fantasy starter. However, he's a heady decision-maker and could lead the league in rush yards by a quarterback. He's a bye-week quarterback with a high ceiling.

I mean to me Campbell seems a lot like Garrard and with that said I see us going only so far with JC at QB. Funny thing though is if we draft Jimmy Clausen our QB will still be JC.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

I was thinking the following trade if it was offered.

Redskins give up:
Jason Campbell, 2011 3rd Rounder, 2010 4th Rounder

Redskins get:
2010 2nd Rounder

In my opinion, the skins would be ROYALLY screwed over in that trade. Since we don't know the exact position of the 2nd round pick we would be receiving or the position of the skins picks in 2011, its really hard to nail down how much either of those picks are worth. But just as an example, lets say both picks were in the middle of their respective rounds. Here's how your trade would look in the draft value chart:

Redskins give up:

1) Jason Campbell

2) 2011 3rd rounder, valued as a 2010 2nd rounder (midgrade), 48th overall - 420 pts.

3) 2010 4th rounder - 100 pts.

Redskins get:
2010 2nd rounder, 48th overall - 420 pts

So basically, for the trade to be "fair," you think Jason Campbell would be worth NEGATIVE 100 points on the draft value chart.

Lets make a more realistic scenario for us

1) We traded with the Rams, who have the first pick in the 2nd round,
2) the Skins end 2010 in the middle of the pack, and end up with the 16th pick in each round of the 2011 draft. For trading purposes, our 2011 3rd rounder is the equivalent to the last pick in the 2nd round of this years draft, your trade works out this way:

Redskins give up:
1) Jason Campbell
2) 2011 3rd round pick, valued at 2010 2nd round pick, 48th overall, 420 points.
3) 2010 4th round pick - 100 pts

Redskins get:
Rams 2010 2nd round pick, 33rd overall, 580 points

In that "realistic" scenario, youre essentially saying that Jason Campbell, generally agreed to be somewhere between the 15th and 25th best QB in the league, is worth only 60 points on the draft value chart. the 21st pick in the 4th round of the draft (117th overall) is worth 60 points. In a year where there's not a single free agent QB worth mentioning. Do you really think Campbell is that horrible of a QB? Its even worse than what Sage Rosenfelds was traded for.

I'm not a Campbell fan by any means, but he's easily worth a low 2nd rounder - high 3rd rounder.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

I'm not a Campbell fan by any means, but he's easily worth a low 2nd rounder - high 3rd rounder.

Teams don't use that draft chart nearly as much as people think. Look at all the picks that Eli Manning cost the Giants. Then look at Randy Moss being trade for a 4th round pick. Just because Campbell might be worth a 2nd rounder doesn't mean we'll get that for him. If you trade him straight up you probably get an early third round pick if you're lucky which isn't worth trading him in my mind. I'd rather have the first pick in the second round (which is in essence a first round pick) and the 5th pick in the second in exchange for a QB that will most likely be gone after this year.

However you're crazy to think that we'd just get away with a second round pick for Campbell at this point. If that happens I'll be the first to apologize but that rarely happens. Teams have seen to much of Campbell to just trade him for a second round pick.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

I was thinking the following trade if it was offered.

Redskins give up:
Jason Campbell, 2011 3rd Rounder, 2010 4th Rounder

Redskins get:
2010 2nd Rounder

I personally don't see anyone giving a straight up 2nd round pick for JC. We'd probably have to sweeten the pot. Still the idea of relying on a rookie QB so soon makes me nervous. We would possibly have to look at veterans to start in the meantime. This type of trade would be really useful especially if it was with the Rams.

I've recently started to scale back on my support for JC (which is constantly on a roller coaster). However in reading something like this I can't help but think that we really won't be that much better:



I mean to me Campbell seems a lot like Garrard and with that said I see us going only so far with JC at QB. Funny thing though is if we draft Jimmy Clausen our QB will still be JC.

that sounds like a horrible deal for us

[over the mountain]

BHA i dont understand your comparison of dirtbags proposal vs your "realistic" one.

in dirt's proposal i dont understand why you assign the rams 2010 2nd round pick as being 48th overall when they pick 33rd? isnt your "more realistic" proposal just an accurate recitation of dirt's proposal?

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

BHA i dont understand your comparison of dirtbags proposal vs your "realistic" one.

in dirt's proposal i dont understand why you assign the rams 2010 2nd round pick as being 48th overall when they pick 33rd? isnt your "more realistic" proposal just an accurate recitation of dirt's proposal?

I think he was using realistic sarcastically. If I'm right BHA would trade JC for a second round pick straight up. Still I don't get the numbers on the 2011 3rd round pick. I think a 2010 third round pick has the potential to fetch a 2011 second round pick.

However a 2011 third round pick is worth less this year then it will be next year. It's sort of like money. It's present value may be worth X number of points today but next year when it "matures" it'll be worth more. Ironcially I'm thinking that the 2011 3rd rounder should be valued as a 4th round pick this year. Not a second round pick. That would leave a 300 point gap assuming the 2011 pick gets valued correctly as a 2010 4th round pick making it around 100 points.

So with that said BHA I think you owe more me a couple more points for Campbells value

Still I'm not that into the trade chart. I think teams use it as more of a guideline.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

BHA i dont understand your comparison of dirtbags proposal vs your "realistic" one.

in dirt's proposal i dont understand why you assign the rams 2010 2nd round pick as being 48th overall when they pick 33rd? isnt your "more realistic" proposal just an accurate recitation of dirt's proposal?

sorry, i changed my example scenario halfway through (when i read a blurb on extremeskins about the rams being interested in Campbell) and didnt go back and revalue everything. well i did, i just missed a few things... you are right dirtbag, i do owe you a few points. i would go back and change what I saw saying, but it would make things even more confusing.

Essentially, if we traded with the Rams, i'd view a fair trade as being:

Rams get:
Jason Campbell

Redskins get:
Rams 3rd round pick

OR

Rams get:
1. Jason Campbell
2. 4th overall pick in the 2010 draft

Redskins get:
1. 1st overall pick in the 2011 draft

In that scenario, the Rams would get a starting QB and use the 4th overall pick on Okung and the skins would trade down with a team that really wanted Suh or McCoy and nab another teams 1st and 2nd round picks.

If we're going to move Campbell, i'd rather see us trade him for a 3rd, trade down 5-8 spots in the first and pick up another 3rd round pick.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

sorry, i changed my example scenario halfway through and didnt go back and revalue everything. well i did, i just missed a few things.

Yeah like in that trade with the Rams JC is valued around 380 points (52 Overall)

And in my scenario from a trade value perspective (which I still say is subjective the trade looks like this).

Redskins give up:
2nd Round pick 52nd overall (380 points) - Jason Campbell
Two 4th round picks (valued at 100 points each) - 2011 3rd Rounder and 2010 4th Rounder.

Redskins get:
Rams 2nd Round Pick 33rd overall (580 points)

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

sorry, i changed my example scenario halfway through (when i read a blurb on extremeskins about the rams being interested in Campbell) and didnt go back and revalue everything. well i did, i just missed a few things... you are right dirtbag, i do owe you a few points. i would go back and change what I saw saying, but it would make things even more confusing.

Essentially, if we traded with the Rams, i'd view a fair trade as being:

Rams get:
Jason Campbell

Redskins get:
Rams 3rd round pick

OR

Rams get:
1. Jason Campbell
2. 4th overall pick in the 2010 draft

Redskins get:
1. 1st overall pick in the 2011 draft

In that scenario, the Rams would get a starting QB and use the 4th overall pick on Okung and the skins would trade down with a team that really wanted Suh or McCoy and nab another teams 1st and 2nd round picks.

If we're going to move Campbell, i'd rather see us trade him for a 3rd, trade down 5-8 spots in the first and pick up another 3rd round pick.

Ha ha, it's alright. I just spent the last hour or something like that trying to figure out how much a 2011 pick is worth in terms of 2010 value and I kept going back and fourth. It really is simple but for some reason I wasn't able to figure it out. That first scenario though is actually pretty realistic in terms of a straight up 1:1 trade but for me to part with JC17 I would need to find some way to yield a 2nd round pick without giving up a 2nd round pick or better (ie 1st rounder).

What I was thinking with the scenario I posted was with getting two high second round picks we can draft a QB and get two starting quality lineman in the form of either two tackles or a tackle and highly valued interior guy like Pouncey (C/G Florida).

However with that 3rd round scenario are you thinking about trading down and picking up an additional 3rd round pick giving us two third rounders and in turn trading back up into the second or staying pat and taking two players in the third?

[Lotus]

^^ I'm not the world's greatest JC fan. But you guys are seriously undervaluing JC with your trade proposals. A 3rd rounder for a QB with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's and with significant starting experience? Some other team will value him eventually. We should hang on to him until we get that high value.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by Lotus

^^ I'm not the world's greatest JC fan. But you guys are seriously undervaluing JC with your trade proposals. A 3rd rounder for a QB with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's and with significant starting experience? Some other team will value him eventually. We should hang on to him until we get that high value.

That's why we were able to trade him away last year for a 2nd right?

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Lotus

^^ I'm not the world's greatest JC fan. But you guys are seriously undervaluing JC with your trade proposals. A 3rd rounder for a QB with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's and with significant starting experience? Some other team will value him eventually. We should hang on to him until we get that high value.

Are you talking to me or BHA? I mean I know I sort of endorsed BHA's 3rd round proposal but I had a different scenario. Ironically though I believe the QB's that fetch second round picks are either truly seasoned veterans (who usually get traded away for much higher a la Jay Cutler), smart teams dealing with dumb teams (Eagles getting AJ Feely for a 2nd round pick from Miami), or guys that have shown flashes (Matt Schuab and Matt Cassel).

Cassel was part of an 11-5 Patriots team (11-4 in games Cassel started) and that was pretty much his only year playing. Matt Schuab lit teams up in the preseason and then played well when given a chance during the regular season. However at the same time there was a sort of mystery. It's the same reason why guys that are valued as top picks (like Matt Leinart and Jakim Noah in the NBA) then go on to drop a few spots the following year.

It's sad but the more time scouts have to dissect a player the lower their value, well more so when they're initially valued high. Obviously we have guys every year that are valued as 3rd or 4th round picks during preseason only to end up as 1st round picks by the time the draft roles around.

Could JC fetch a 2nd round pick? Possibly but I really think teams are scared by the fact that he has a relatively large body of work and only so much to show for it. But hey you never know. All we need is to get a call from Al Davis or Ralph Wilson and we're raking in the picks.

On second thought if we can convince Jason to change his first name to Matt then I think we could grantee a second round pick for Campbell. In short Matt Campbell is worth more then Jason Campbell.

[The Goat]

Originally Posted by Lotus

^^ I'm not the world's greatest JC fan. But you guys are seriously undervaluing JC with your trade proposals. A 3rd rounder for a QB with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's and with significant starting experience? Some other team will value him eventually. We should hang on to him until we get that high value.

Lotus I think JC's value has been way higher within the franchise than elsewhere in the league. Hard to tell if that's the case now w/ Shanahan/Allen in the driver's seat. But I doubt very much they expect a valuable trade for Jason alone...whenever the franchise shopped him in the past in basically amounted to zero interest for him. In fact I think the only way he gets traded is part of a larger deal.

Also man look at where Jason could have "connections?" Zorn is working w/ a well established QB/offense. Gibbs only connection is to DC. Where is Saunders? Jason just doesn't have a lot of leads to look for.

I said it a couple weeks ago and think about it more and more...I could see JC out of the league completely soon if Shanny dumps him. Jason sees himself far better than basically everyone else does (who matters in the NFL...sorry GTripp ).