QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020

[SunnySide]

Originally Posted by mooby

We seem to have this fascination with having the highest draft pick possible, and yet there isn't a correlation between being drafted high and having major success in the NFL. I don't care where we pick as long as we use the draft pick wisely.

This is patently and statistically wrong and just against common sense.

The higher the pick, the higher chance that player is a starter and/or pro bowler. Perhaps your argument is 1 1st rounder = 2 2nd rounders = 3 3r? Still, give me the 1st rounder all day, especially if its the skins picking.

The variance? Some teams draft better, some teams develop better, some teams keep the same coaching staff/system so a player drafted 4 years ago still fits the scheme.

Thats why Im not a fan of trading back .. the skins have a better chance of not screwing up.


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“Picking at the end of the second round only gives your team a 50 percent chance of finding a starter,” According to a study via datascopeanalytics.com, that analyzes 50 years worth of drafting. This is a big dropoff from the first 15 picks which generates starters between 80-90 percent of the time. On the other hand, “going towards the end of the third round, your chance of finding a starter falls to (about) 30 percent.”

The further down you go in rounds, the lower the percentage gets. “The data shows that finding a starter in Round 6 or 7 is only 10–20 percent.”
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...nfl-draft-pick
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86 players in total were named Pro Bowlers. Excluding special teams players that’s 78 Pro Bowl players. How many of them were high draft picks? How many were high profile free agent signees?

2019 Pro Bowl Roster Evaluation

45 Pro Bowlers were first round picks (25 in AFC, 20 in NFC)

4 number one overall picks (Jadaveon Clowney, Eric Fisher, Myles Garrett, Jared Goff)

3 undrafted free agents (Philip Lindsay, Alejandro Villanueva, Adam Thielen) – Lindsay also became the first undrafted rookie

4 of the 6 quarterbacks were first round picks (Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers). The other 2 QBs were Tom Brady (6th) and Drew Brees (2nd)

4 of the 6 running backs were first round picks. All three NFC running backs were first round, top 10 draft picks (Ezekiell Elliot, Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley). Two of the three AFC running backs began training camp as a presumed back ups (James Connor and Philip Lindsay). Melvin Gordon was the other first round pick.

There were 8 Wide Receivers selected in total only two (one from each conference) were previous first round picks – DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones. Davante Adams and Michael Thomas were both taken in the second round. Keenan Allen (3), Tyreek Hill (5), Antonio Brown (6), and Adam Thielen (undrafted) round out the receivers.

6 of the 8 Cornerbacks selected, were first round picks, and the other 2 were second round picks. First rounders – Patrick Peterson, Byron Jones, Kyle Fuller, Jalen Ramsey, Stephen Gilmore, Denzel Ward. Xavien Howard and Darius Slay were both second rounders.

All 3 AFC Defense Ends (Myles Garrett, Melvin Ingram, JJ Watt) were first round draft picks.

Out of the 8 AFC Offensive Lineman, 6 were first round picks. Out of the 8 NFC Offensive Lineman, 4 were first round picks, 1 second rounder, and three third round picks. Only 1 of the 4 Centers has not left the team that drafted them (Maurkice Pouncey in Pittsburgh)

Only 12 out of the 78 non-special teams players in the Pro Bowl are representing a team that did not draft them (they signed via free agency or were traded)

All 6 Outside Linebackers were first round picks (Von Miller, Jadaveon Clowney, Dee Ford, Khalil Mack, Ryan Kerrigan, Anthony barr)
https://mikedropsports.com/evaluatin...between-draft/
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From 2000-2007:
1st R - 12.5 make pro bowl
2nd - 5.5
3rd- 2
4th - 2.3
5 - 1.6
6 - 1.5
7 - 0.75
UDFA - 4.1
https://www.battleredblog.com/2011/4...ears-2000-2007

[mooby]

Originally Posted by SunnySide

This is patently and statistically wrong and just against common sense.

<Lots of stats and math about the entire draft>

Kudos for doing all that hard work, perhaps I should clarify. Top 5 compared to the rest of the first rounders, what's the ratio? I don't care if we pick in the top 5 or top 10, you can still find all-pros anywhere you draft in the first round. This year's MVP and last year's MVP, where were both drafted? (I'll give you a hint, not in the top 5).

[Randall Nestor]

If we were one player away from being a consistent playoff team then I would take that player. I think if they get a great offer to move down a few picks then I say trade down. I like more picks to help fill some of these holes. We need a LT, CB, TE or two, WR, S, RB (without knee problems), QB (backup) just to name a few. As much as I would like to have Young, we have a lot of needs we can fill with a great offer/trade down.

[skinsfan69]

Pro Bowl = watered down popularity contest.

[PorkSkins]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Pro Bowl = watered down popularity contest.

I agree for the most part. Making the All-Pro team matters more.

[rocnrik]

I would trade our top 3 pick and make a team pay dearly.. we get there number one this year.. there 2cnd rnd this year and there number 1 next year !!! I would do that hell yes!!

[Irrefutable]

Originally Posted by rocnrik

I would trade our top 3 pick and make a team pay dearly.. we get there number one this year.. there 2cnd rnd this year and there number 1 next year !!! I would do that hell yes!!

not going to happen... I would be happy with a 2020 1st and 2nd to move 5 spots or so

[rocnrik]

You may be right .. but there are very good teams out there who need a young QB for future (pats,packers,Steelers,etc who never pick early in a draft ( they usually pick 20-32). the temptation to grab a top QB may be to hard to resist..who knows ?.. I can tell you that after watching steelers they have nothing now at QB .. We need a TE bad! OL, did I say TE 😀, some help in secondary.. With redskins luck we take Young at number 3 and he gets hurt and that’s that ... I would rather have multiple picks with this team!

[Warthog]

We’ll get a TE in FA. I think that the next HC will clean house on our FA. Out of our top 8 FA, only two are still playing. The solution is easy, trade and cut. We’ll open up tens of millions in cap room. Opening up cap room to hire new FA, will be a good entrancement to a prospective HC candidate.


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[Warthog]

As I said before, this team needs stars, not trading down for low picks. We need a star at OT, we have journeymen now.


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[Irrefutable]

Originally Posted by Warthog

As I said before, this team needs stars, not trading down for low picks. We need a star at OT, we have journeymen now.


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Stars like RG3, Dotson, Guice, Anderson? They should be able to get good players in the mid-first round, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds too. One star will not turn around this team.

FWIW... there are 3 or 4 very good tackles in this draft.

[SunnySide]

Originally Posted by Irrefutable

Stars like RG3, Dotson, Guice, Anderson? They should be able to get good players in the mid-first round, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds too. One star will not turn around this team.

FWIW... there are 3 or 4 very good tackles in this draft.

Only 1 of those was a top 5 pick ... and it was made by the owner against the football wishes of the people hired at that time to make football decisions. And he won the only rookie of the year ever for the skins.

Kinda proved the point .. the chances of drafting a star or even starter decrease the farther down the draft the pick is made. You could have nick bosa or Brian Burns+Jahlani Tavai. Give me Nick all day.

Brian Burns might be a nice 10 year starter w a few pro bowls .. Nick Bosa may be a d MVP and HOF. I can find a Brian Burns .. hell I could pay Preston Smith or Z Smith in FA and get the same if not better production. I cannot sign a potential MVP in FA. Those are hard to come by.

Not all 22 starters can be All Pro and every position is important but you do need super stars at impact positions. QB, LT, DE, WR, CB. If you have a chance to add a potential A+ HOF player at one of these positions, you do it and dont worry about adding trading down to add a nice B mlb and a B- cb.

This draft's top 5 have potential impact players at QB, LT, CB, DE and possibly WR.

We are picking in the top 5 (3-4 overall).

Take the potential stud LT or CB who should be there.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by Warthog

As I said before, this team needs stars, not trading down for low picks. We need a star at OT, we have journeymen now.


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Eh, we had a SUPERSTAR LT for years and we didn't really win shit.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

Eh, we had a SUPERSTAR LT for years and we didn't really win shit.

Not a great point. Trent was definitely not the problem. We didn't win shit because we couldn't put enough good pieces on the field, we couldn't hang onto the one decent QB we had, our coaches were average at scheming (below average on defense), we had shitty culture, the players we paid ended up hurt super often (Reed) etc etc.

Get the star OT and then be better elsewhere, starting with culture. You can win that way. Saying the Superstar OT didn't help us is tossing the baby out with the bathwater.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Not a great point. Trent was definitely not the problem. We didn't win shit because we couldn't put enough good pieces on the field, we couldn't hang onto the one decent QB we had, our coaches were average at scheming (below average on defense), we had shitty culture, the players we paid ended up hurt super often (Reed) etc etc.

Get the star OT and then be better elsewhere, starting with culture. You can win that way. Saying the Superstar OT didn't help us is tossing the baby out with the bathwater.

No doubt I was just saying that a star LT doesn't necessarily mean you can be a consistent winner. The culture has been the problem from day 1, until that changes we could draft Jesus and nothing would come of it