WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)

[Coff]

What I find annoying is the "knee jerk reaction" criticism and uninformed criticism. The sort of criticism in the JLC article is neither of these. This is a well documented, well researched and thorough examination of the Redskin organization under Snyder. The simple fact is, he has thus far been unsuccessful as an owner, and at the same time has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself with the contracts he has given to players. Of course he will be criticized, and deservedly so.

There are those who automatically criticize Snyder, and there are those who will automatically defend him; both are annoying. Personally, I would have trouble criticizing JLC for this article, because it is so well written, and I think those who do criticize it see Snyder through rose colored glasses and will defend him at any point.

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by Coff

What I find annoying is the "knee jerk reaction" criticism and uninformed criticism. The sort of criticism in the JLC article is neither of these. This is a well documented, well researched and thorough examination of the Redskin organization under Snyder. The simple fact is, he has thus far been unsuccessful as an owner, and at the same time has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself with the contracts he has given to players. Of course he will be criticized, and deservedly so.

There are those who automatically criticize Snyder, and there are those who will automatically defend him; both are annoying. Personally, I would have trouble criticizing JLC for this article, because it is so well written, and I think those who do criticize it see Snyder through rose colored glasses and will defend him at any point.

I think just spewing numbers and making inferences about their meaning is not a well written article. To correlate poor football success with dead cap space or cash outlay is tenuous at best. Again, these guys need to be smart enough to understand what the numbers are telling them and what the numbers aren't telling them.

For example one (incorrect) way to interpret the cash outlay number is to say that because of our cash outlay we have won more games than we should have because our talent evaluation has been awful. Now that number doesn't really say that but it doesn't say that we have been bad either. In fact cash outlay seems completely irrelevant to me when it comes to football. Dead space probably seems to more closely correlates to football success because it theoretically effects the on field talent but if you really examine how the skins manage the cap you might realize that dead space doesn't effect them much at all because....you guessed it, cash outlay mostly offsets dead space. So the two actually in economic terms cancel each other out to a certain degree.

But simple minded football people see things through the way they think is right to do something. I tend to think with better talent evaluation our management style of the cap is FAR superior than others. BUT, huge but here, our style requires cash resources that probably 4 or 5 teams in the league can handle.

All in all we just need to keep spending the money the same way but on better talent. I think we have undoubtedly been doing that over the last 3-4 years.

[KLHJ2]

Originally Posted by Coff

What I find annoying is the "knee jerk reaction" criticism and uninformed criticism. The sort of criticism in the JLC article is neither of these. This is a well documented, well researched and thorough examination of the Redskin organization under Snyder. The simple fact is, he has thus far been unsuccessful as an owner, and at the same time has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself with the contracts he has given to players. Of course he will be criticized, and deservedly so.

There are those who automatically criticize Snyder, and there are those who will automatically defend him; both are annoying. Personally, I would have trouble criticizing JLC for this article, because it is so well written, and I think those who do criticize it see Snyder through rose colored glasses and will defend him at any point.

I was one of his biggest critics. What is ticking me off is that there is nothing new to report and the press keeps dwelling on the past with their well documented, well researched, and thorough examination of the Redskins organization under Snyder.

The fact of the matter is that he is changing his approach, but his finacial abilty remains. If he fails this year, then the press can put out a well documented, well researched, and thorough examination of the Redskins organization under Snyder, and tell us all how badly he sucks. As it stands right now, we made the playoffs and didn't overpay for crap this offseason. There is no need for this offseason driven, over analytical, criticizing trash right now.

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by angryssg

I was one of his biggest critics. What is ticking me off is that there is nothing new to report and the press keeps dwelling on the past with their well documented, well researched, and thorough examination of the Redskins organization under Snyder.

The fact of the matter is that he is changing his approach, but his finacial abilty remains. If he fails this year, then the press can put out a well documented, well researched, and thorough examination of the Redskins organization under Snyder, and tell us all how badly he sucks. As it stands right now, we made the playoffs and didn't overpay for crap this offseason. There is no need for this offseason driven, over analytical, criticizing, trash right now.

I think JLC is overly critical of the Skins at times, but I also think that Snyder controls a good amount of media too [i.e. George and Larry Michael(s)] so it is good to at least have the Post offering a foil (that isn't uninformed such is the case with much national media). A blog entry saying 'we'll wait and see' also wouldn't take very long to read or drive much interest so I also understand why JLC wouldn't want to do something like that.

I also think that you kind of misread the entry when you say that he implies that the Skins didn't have the cap space to pursue free agents. He wrote, "But reality is, they couldn't keep doing what they we're doing forever, and, most importantly, it wasn't working. Not even close," which I take to mean that as a long-term strategy spending lots of dollars on free agent aquisitions was not going to lead to success, not that they were completely unable to do so if they wished this year.

If you want to sum up that article in a sentence it might read, "All the NFL teams that have produced as much dead cap as the Redskins have overhauled their FO structure but the Redskins gave their guy a promotion." You might respond by saying that the Redskins have made the playoffs two of the past three seasons and also that the promotion of Cerrato actually does represent a reorganization of sorts since the coach/president role no longer exists. There are probably some other arguments you can make as well. I just don't know that you can really slam JLC for saying they didn't have the cap space because that isn't how I read what he is saying.

[KLHJ2]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

I think JLC is overly critical of the Skins at times, but I also think that Snyder controls a good amount of media too [i.e. George and Larry Michael(s)] so it is good to at least have the Post offering a foil (that isn't uninformed such is the case with much national media). A blog entry saying 'we'll wait and see' also wouldn't take very long to read or drive much interest so I also understand why JLC wouldn't want to do something like that.

I also think that you kind of misread the entry when you say that he implies that the Skins didn't have the cap space to pursue free agents. He wrote, "But reality is, they couldn't keep doing what they we're doing forever, and, most importantly, it wasn't working. Not even close," which I take to mean that as a long-term strategy spending lots of dollars on free agent aquisitions was not going to lead to success, not that they were completely unable to do so if they wished this year.

If you want to sum up that article in a sentence it might read, "All the NFL teams that have produced as much dead cap as the Redskins have overhauled their FO structure but the Redskins gave their guy a promotion." You might respond by saying that the Redskins have made the playoffs two of the past three seasons and also that the promotion of Cerrato actually does represent a reorganization of sorts since the coach/president role no longer exists. There are probably some other arguments you can make as well. I just don't know that you can really slam JLC for saying they didn't have the cap space because that isn't how I read what he is saying.

Good observation. JLC's blog was just the straw that broke the camel's back. I am tired of the entire media talking about the Redskins being strapped for cash or cap space and unable to make moves this offseason. When I read something remotely related to that in JLC's blog I erupted. I do however, stand beside my comments and do not appologize.

[freddyg12]

Originally Posted by Coff

What I find annoying is the "knee jerk reaction" criticism and uninformed criticism. The sort of criticism in the JLC article is neither of these. This is a well documented, well researched and thorough examination of the Redskin organization under Snyder. The simple fact is, he has thus far been unsuccessful as an owner, and at the same time has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself with the contracts he has given to players. Of course he will be criticized, and deservedly so.

There are those who automatically criticize Snyder, and there are those who will automatically defend him; both are annoying. Personally, I would have trouble criticizing JLC for this article, because it is so well written, and I think those who do criticize it see Snyder through rose colored glasses and will defend him at any point.

Good post, JLC isn't saying that the changes are all due to lack of cap space. He doesn't say that at all, he merely is pointing out the past & how he's heard the same things from Snyder before. He gives them credit, but also says he'll have a "skeptical eye." How can anyone not given the history?

His statements about Gibbs wanting to repace vinny in the personnel dept. is quite revealing. I remember the rumor being floated here that there would be a new scouting dept. but never heard of vinny getting the axe. Given Vinny's promotion, Gibbs' opinion of him may have something to do w/Gibbs leaving.

[FRPLG]

I think J-La is short sighted a lot when it comes to the Skins. I believe he has reason to question what they are doing because of the evidence of our success but he relies way too much on "league sources" to tell him what to think. Most of these "league sources" are probably a small set of people who may or may not have biases against the Skins or the way they do things. I can see a capologist from Philly for example being totally blown away by the way the Skins do things cap wise and then inferring that their monetary policies simply don't work based on their football success when the two things are not as correlated as some simple minded football people would like to believe. How you handle the cap money wise doesn't have a ton of effect on your football success in the long term but talent evaluation does. Bash them for that but as for cap management they are the best in the league simply because their cash on hand allows them so much flexibility and opportunity.

[onlydarksets]

As others noted, this ignores the actions Cerrato has taken since he officially took over. I've been less than impressed with JLC's reporting lately. His blogging is excellent, though.

[T.O.Killa]

If the redskins dont use all of their salary cap space, will they use it to write off Lloyd's cap hit this year, instead of splitting it over the next two years?

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by T.O.Killa

If the redskins dont use all of their salary cap space, will they use it to write off Lloyd's cap hit this year, instead of splitting it over the next two years?

No they can't do that, they already designated him a June 1 cut, so they're stuck with carrying him over the next two years. But I think they'll use the cap space, if not for trades, then for extending JC.

[KLHJ2]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

No they can't do that, they already designated him a June 1 cut, so they're stuck with carrying him over the next two years. But I think they'll use the cap space, if not for trades, then for extending JC.

I recall reading something that Snyder said at the Owners' meetings that went something like "We will or have always used our cap space". Extending JC would be a smart move IMO.

[GTripp0012]

Well, let's not act like restructuring 30 million dollars in salary every season is sustainable. It isn't. It wasn't going to be in 2006, and it wouldn't have been in 2010 if we had continued our old ways.

However, what is sustainable is the building of a core through free agency (like in 2004), and then it is supplimented by draft picks to be the backups to the core players. That was our original plan, although it took us some time to get the depth in there because we spend a ton of picks to build that core through trades.

Now we have picks again, and now we have depth. The "rebuilding" stage appears to be complete: This is a talented team, and we have picks to spend on youth.

This free agency avoidance was merely the next step for the team. Once we have a starting lineup we are happy with, we can move into the stage of sustaining...as oppposed to building.

The next step is to use the draft so that we have the money to extend our current players without restrucutring a bunch of veteran money every season.

[freddyg12]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, let's not act like restructuring 30 million dollars in salary every season is sustainable. It isn't. It wasn't going to be in 2006, and it wouldn't have been in 2010 if we had continued our old ways.

However, what is sustainable is the building of a core through free agency (like in 2004), and then it is supplimented by draft picks to be the backups to the core players. That was our original plan, although it took us some time to get the depth in there because we spend a ton of picks to build that core through trades.

Now we have picks again, and now we have depth. The "rebuilding" stage appears to be complete: This is a talented team, and we have picks to spend on youth.

This free agency avoidance was merely the next step for the team. Once we have a starting lineup we are happy with, we can move into the stage of sustaining...as oppposed to building.

The next step is to use the draft so that we have the money to extend our current players without restrucutring a bunch of veteran money every season.

I agree fully. I get tired of the opinion that because we clear up cap space one season that means we're in good shap w/the cap. We almost got to see how bad things were in 06 when the cba was about to expire.

Yes, we would've been in cap hell if a new deal was not struck.

good points about the draft, about the same thing I was saying earlier, we burned draft picks in trades & that really hurt over time.

[KLHJ2]

Originally Posted by freddyg12

I agree fully. I get tired of the opinion that because we clear up cap space one season that means we're in good shap w/the cap. We almost got to see how bad things were in 06 when the cba was about to expire.

Yes, we would've been in cap hell if a new deal was not struck.

good points about the draft, about the same thing I was saying earlier, we burned draft picks in trades & that really hurt over time.

True, but about 20 other teams would have been as well. So it would have been a league wide problem and not just ours.

[freddyg12]

Originally Posted by angryssg

True, but about 20 other teams would have been as well. So it would have been a league wide problem and not just ours.

Not sure there were 20 teams that would've been even nearly as affected as us. It's one thing for 20 teams to have to cut a few players they don't want to, but the situation in 06 for us was much more dire than that.

But let's suppose you're right & we say that 20 teams are in some form of "cap hell," that leaves 12 teams who are presumably the top third in cap management (at that time). There are 12 teams in the playoffs every year as well.

So to me that says the Skins (again at the time in 06 when the old cba was ending) are one of the worst if not worst in cap management among 20 or so teams that are bad at it.