The Mid Round QB fallacy

over the mountain · 02-14-2010, 10:51 AM

dang, some good back n forth analysis in here.

go skins!

53Fan · 02-14-2010, 10:59 AM

Also, counting Pennington, Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn, if you want to count them as starters, 15 of the 26 first round QB picks start. 11 first round picks don't, and if you take away Russell and Quinn who haven't proven much, 50% of the QB's taken in the first round in the last 10 years did not start last year. Take away Pennington, which I guess you could since Henne is starting for Miami, it becomes even more who are not starting.

This is just my opinion and in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really count for much, but there are 2 things I feel strongly about.

1- Considering the personell we have, the Redskins needs at o-line are far greater than our need at QB to become a winning team.

2- Russell Okung is much less of a risk than Bradford or Clausen at #4.

mlmdub130 · 02-14-2010, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 53Fan

Also, counting Pennington, Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn, if you want to count them as starters, 15 of the 26 first round QB picks start. 11 first round picks don't, and if you take away Russell and Quinn who haven't proven much, 50% of the QB's taken in the first round in the last 10 years did not start last year. Take away Pennington, which I guess you could since Henne is starting for Miami, it becomes even more who are not starting.

This is just my opinion and in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really count for much, but there are 2 things I feel strongly about.

1- Considering the personell we have, the Redskins needs at o-line are far greater than our need at QB to become a winning team.

2- Russell Okung is much less of a risk than Bradford or Clausen at #4.

i agree

Schneed10 · 02-14-2010, 11:19 AM

I'm of the opinion that if you have a chance to get a QB you think will be great, you absolutely can't pass up the opportunity. No other position impacts the game nearly as much, and the point was already made that nobody is going deep in the playoffs these days without an elite QB.

If you have a great QB prospect available when you pick, it's a mistake to fulfill any other need, including LT.

Could you miss on the QB? Sure. Schuler anyone? But imagine if you hit, and you end up with the next Drew Brees or Peyton Manning. If you hit on an LT, you end up with a Chris Samuels, which is great for 10 years. But without the QB you see where that got us.

Football's a team sport and you need it all, but first and foremost you need the QB. The question isn't whether we should go LT over QB, the question is whether Bradford or Clausen are tremendous prospects. If we think one of them is, we've got to pull the trigger. We'll find our LT later, despite what people think, there are Sam Baker's out there who can make an impact outside of the top 10.

Son Of Man · 02-14-2010, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I'm of the opinion that if you have a chance to get a QB you think will be great, you absolutely can't pass up the opportunity. No other position impacts the game nearly as much, and the point was already made that nobody is going deep in the playoffs these days without an elite QB.

If you have a great QB prospect available when you pick, it's a mistake to fulfill any other need, including LT.

Could you miss on the QB? Sure. Schuler anyone? But imagine if you hit, and you end up with the next Drew Brees or Peyton Manning. If you hit on an LT, you end up with a Chris Samuels, which is great for 10 years. But without the QB you see where that got us.

Football's a team sport and you need it all, but first and foremost you need the QB. The question isn't whether we should go LT over QB, the question is whether Bradford or Clausen are tremendous prospects. If we think one of them is, we've got to pull the trigger. We'll find our LT later, despite what people think, there are Sam Baker's out there who can make an impact outside of the top 10.

Great post. I still want McCoy in the 2nd though.

dmek25 · 02-14-2010, 11:33 AM

would this change things?
EXTREMESKINS.com

53Fan · 02-14-2010, 11:33 AM

Just for the sake of argument, we've won 3 Super Bowls and gone to 5. In the SB era, besides Sonny Jurgenson who didn't win any, what Franchise QB's have we had?

dmek25 · 02-14-2010, 11:34 AM

thats going to be a quick discussion. Joe T.

53Fan · 02-14-2010, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmek25

thats going to be a quick discussion. Joe T.

He was picked in the 4th round by the Miami Dolphins and played in the CFL before we got him. Mark Rypien was picked in the 6th. Doug Williams was given up on by Tampa Bay when we got him. But we had a strong o-line.

MTK · 02-14-2010, 11:37 AM

Taking a QB in the 1st round is no guarantee for success either. It just boils down to doing your homework and taking the right guy, regardless of round.

GusFrerotte · 02-14-2010, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Taking a QB in the 1st round is no guarantee for success either. It just boils down to doing your homework and taking the right guy, regardless of round.

Exactly, comes down to great scouting and coordination between the FO and the HC, plus a bit of luck wouldn't hurt.

dmek25 · 02-14-2010, 12:47 PM

you guys old enough to remember Theismann returning punts when he first got here? can you imagine someone trying that now

53Fan · 02-14-2010, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmek25

you guys old enough to remember Theismann returning punts when he first got here? can you imagine someone trying that now

The coach would get fired.

CultBrennan59 · 02-14-2010, 01:19 PM

Just remember people, we don't need to get a QB later in the draft just to say we got one. I really don't want McCoy just because he is the best name available, he can only throw the ball 40 yards. Pike played in a QB friendly system and threw lots of close/should have been picks. Robinson would show flashes of great QB and also flashes of don't draft me; threw lots of picks without his best WR. LeFevour played in a QB friendly system/shotgun offense. Didn't play against elite competition and makes his receivers adjust to the ball. Tebow doesn't know how to read defenses and delivers the ball very slow and wobbily. Kafka is a definite fighter, but would have games where he would throw 4 TD and 5Ints, doesn't really cut it in the NFL. Kafka's the only one of this bunch of later QB's that I would take a shot on....Lets just go ahead and get Bradford, whether people here like it or not, he'll be our QB in 2010 unless St. Louis takes him. So many people have us taking him in their mocks, I know you shouldn't trust mocks but when its almost unanimous as to who we're getting and the fact that last off season we were looking at QBs, as well as the fact that shanahan can get good OLineman for his system throughout the draft, but QB's really have come to him in the first round, that just supports more why I think he'll go the more safe route (ironically with a guy with a question mark shoulder; then did Brees too...) and get Sam Bradford.

GusFrerotte · 02-14-2010, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Without picking sides in the Bradford/Clausen vs. Okung at #4 pick, it bugs me when I see people say to 'just pick up a QB in the mid rounds' like that's a recipe for success in the league.. Doing a little research (very little) it's pretty clear that it's not.. Of the playoff teams the past 5 years, the QB breakdown is (non first round QB in parenthesis):

2009, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brees, Warner, Brady, Romo, Favre)
2008, 9-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Warner, T. Jackson, Delhomme)
2007, 5-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Favre, T. Collins, Brady, Garrard, Romo, Garcia, Hasselbeck)
2006, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Brees, Romo, Hasselbeck, T. Green)
2005, 6-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Plummer, Brunell, Hasselbeck, Garcia, Delhomme)

So nearly 60% of the playoff QB over the past 5 years have been 1st round picks. The exceptions have been the greatest 6th round pick in league history (Brady) 4 undrafted FA (Romo, Delhomme, Garcia, Warner)-including perhaps one of the most unlikely stories of all time in Warner. Three second round picks (Brees, Favre & Jackson) and 5 late round picks who eventually became something after playing behind established QB for years (Garrard, T. Green, Collins, Brunell, Hasselbeck).

So unless we're hoping for another miracle (Brady, Warner, Romo, Delhomme) or a slightly undervalued gem (Favre, Brees) or are hoping to find an undiscovered star (Hasselbeck, etc) then 'picking up a QB in the mid rounds' is likely not going to yield us anything beyond mediocre football in the future.

My thing is there is a lot of QB talent in this year's draft. The QB's that are being hailed as future superstars all come from big time college programs stacked with talent facing marked inferior opponents most Staurday afternoons(Clausen is the exception IMHO). These guys had huge ass lines, and had top of the line talent to work with. What happens when they hit NFL parity central? The guys going in the mid rounds might just prove more resilent in making this transition to the NFL since most of them come from second tier Div 1-A schools that face competition that was either on par or even superior. Also, your own stats you just gave us have shown that you can indeed get some gems in the mid rounds. Might be a long shot bud, but I would take a shot at a healthy Dan Lefevour than an Okie with a bum shoulder that played on a totally stacked team in Norman. Besides your line of thinking also can apply to offensive linemen. Think Bradford is going to last long with the bums we have now? You give JC or Lefevour a stellar line and either one will make the pro bowl!!!!!!!!!

02-14-2010, 10:51 AM	#1
over the mountain Playmaker Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: close to the edge Posts: 4,926	Re: The Mid Round QB fallacy dang, some good back n forth analysis in here. go skins! __________________ Life is brutal, but beautiful

02-14-2010, 10:59 AM	#2
53Fan Franchise Player Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Kill Devil Hills, N.C. Posts: 7,570	Re: The Mid Round QB fallacy Also, counting Pennington, Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn, if you want to count them as starters, 15 of the 26 first round QB picks start. 11 first round picks don't, and if you take away Russell and Quinn who haven't proven much, 50% of the QB's taken in the first round in the last 10 years did not start last year. Take away Pennington, which I guess you could since Henne is starting for Miami, it becomes even more who are not starting. This is just my opinion and in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really count for much, but there are 2 things I feel strongly about. 1- Considering the personell we have, the Redskins needs at o-line are far greater than our need at QB to become a winning team. 2- Russell Okung is much less of a risk than Bradford or Clausen at #4. __________________ Defense wins championships. Bring it!

02-14-2010, 11:33 AM	#6
dmek25 MVP Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: lancaster,pa Age: 63 Posts: 10,672	Re: The Mid Round QB fallacy would this change things? EXTREMESKINS.com __________________ "It's better to be quiet and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt." courtesy of 53fan

02-14-2010, 11:33 AM	#7
53Fan Franchise Player Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Kill Devil Hills, N.C. Posts: 7,570	Re: The Mid Round QB fallacy Just for the sake of argument, we've won 3 Super Bowls and gone to 5. In the SB era, besides Sonny Jurgenson who didn't win any, what Franchise QB's have we had? __________________ Defense wins championships. Bring it!

02-14-2010, 11:34 AM	#8
dmek25 MVP Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: lancaster,pa Age: 63 Posts: 10,672	Re: The Mid Round QB fallacy thats going to be a quick discussion. Joe T. __________________ "It's better to be quiet and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt." courtesy of 53fan

02-14-2010, 11:19 AM	#4
Schneed10 A Dude Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Newtown Square, PA Age: 46 Posts: 12,458	Re: The Mid Round QB fallacy I'm of the opinion that if you have a chance to get a QB you think will be great, you absolutely can't pass up the opportunity. No other position impacts the game nearly as much, and the point was already made that nobody is going deep in the playoffs these days without an elite QB. If you have a great QB prospect available when you pick, it's a mistake to fulfill any other need, including LT. Could you miss on the QB? Sure. Schuler anyone? But imagine if you hit, and you end up with the next Drew Brees or Peyton Manning. If you hit on an LT, you end up with a Chris Samuels, which is great for 10 years. But without the QB you see where that got us. Football's a team sport and you need it all, but first and foremost you need the QB. The question isn't whether we should go LT over QB, the question is whether Bradford or Clausen are tremendous prospects. If we think one of them is, we've got to pull the trigger. We'll find our LT later, despite what people think, there are Sam Baker's out there who can make an impact outside of the top 10. __________________ God made certain people to play football. He was one of them.

02-14-2010, 11:37 AM	#10
MTK \m/ Join Date: Feb 2004 Age: 52 Posts: 99,832	Re: The Mid Round QB fallacy Taking a QB in the 1st round is no guarantee for success either. It just boils down to doing your homework and taking the right guy, regardless of round. __________________ Support The Warpath! \| Warpath Shop

02-14-2010, 12:47 PM	#12
dmek25 MVP Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: lancaster,pa Age: 63 Posts: 10,672	Re: The Mid Round QB fallacy you guys old enough to remember Theismann returning punts when he first got here? can you imagine someone trying that now __________________ "It's better to be quiet and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt." courtesy of 53fan

02-14-2010, 01:19 PM	#14
CultBrennan59 Pro Bowl Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 6,526	Re: The Mid Round QB fallacy Just remember people, we don't need to get a QB later in the draft just to say we got one. I really don't want McCoy just because he is the best name available, he can only throw the ball 40 yards. Pike played in a QB friendly system and threw lots of close/should have been picks. Robinson would show flashes of great QB and also flashes of don't draft me; threw lots of picks without his best WR. LeFevour played in a QB friendly system/shotgun offense. Didn't play against elite competition and makes his receivers adjust to the ball. Tebow doesn't know how to read defenses and delivers the ball very slow and wobbily. Kafka is a definite fighter, but would have games where he would throw 4 TD and 5Ints, doesn't really cut it in the NFL. Kafka's the only one of this bunch of later QB's that I would take a shot on....Lets just go ahead and get Bradford, whether people here like it or not, he'll be our QB in 2010 unless St. Louis takes him. So many people have us taking him in their mocks, I know you shouldn't trust mocks but when its almost unanimous as to who we're getting and the fact that last off season we were looking at QBs, as well as the fact that shanahan can get good OLineman for his system throughout the draft, but QB's really have come to him in the first round, that just supports more why I think he'll go the more safe route (ironically with a guy with a question mark shoulder; then did Brees too...) and get Sam Bradford. __________________ "Anyones better than Madieu Williams"

The Mid Round QB fallacy

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