Football Outsiders Picks Redskins to Make Postseason

[GTripp0012]

The faulty premise in his argument is that we'd have to endure some sort of a "loser's curse" if we made the playoffs, caused by the fact that Snyder likes to jump into our business when the future appears bright.

I think he's wrong: I doubt Dan Snyder cares about the day to day operation of the team. However, Shanahan more or less has the same track record, so that, in my opinion, might be what gets us.

[hooskins]

But we had no picks, so the only option we had was free agency. And beyond, McNabb, who else have we signed who is gonna cost us arm and leg? Also all these vets probably won't get long term deals. We will have to fully rebuild at one point.

Pretty poor logic to deem Galloway a "vintage" Redskins' signing. We aren't overpaying and we are bringing in cheap competition.

[GTripp0012]

On a personal note, I am unsold on our positioning as the 1a. team in the division to Philly's 1. Their Dallas projection is built on the back of a horrid projection for their offensive line depth and age, but it seems to me that even though that probably will be a banged-up, terrible disgrace of an offensive line, their defense has a lot more upside than that projection allows for, and given Romo's ability to make the first guy miss consistently, I don't see a bottom ten unit on that side of the ball until Jon Kitna takes the field.

If Dallas jumps to the top of the projection, we go from prohibitive favorite to a very fringe playoff contender, in the same boat as Philly and New Orleans -- which is tough competition, plus we'll need to hold as many tiebreakers as possible against Minnesota/Chicago/Green Bay.

[skinsfan69]

So this guy has us better than the Giants and Dallas???? Um I don't think so. Right now those teams are better than we are. End of discussion.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

So this guy has us better than the Giants and Dallas???? Um I don't think so. Right now those teams are better than we are. End of discussion.

You know, you make a great point. Very well supported.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

You know, you make a great point. Very well supported.

What do want me to support it with? All I need to do is use common sense. Philly, NY, and Dallas all have a lot less question marks than we do. If I had to put money on it I'd say that we're still behind all those teams.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

What do want me to support it with? All I need to do is use common sense. Philly, NY, and Dallas all have a lot less question marks than we do. If I had to put money on it I'd say that we're still behind all those teams.

Philly questionable line as far as pass pro and yet to be proven QB.. solid D

NY.. questionable D if it's like last year.. aka near bottom of the league.. probably the best line overall

Dallas... questionable O Line at least as far as pass pro.. good D

Us.. solid D, but changing.. QB improved.. not sure on line.. just a big question mark

anyone really can win the division but I don't think that it will be the Gnats.. I see us coming in 2nd or a VERY close 3rd

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

What do want me to support it with? All I need to do is use common sense. Philly, NY, and Dallas all have a lot less question marks than we do. If I had to put money on it I'd say that we're still behind all those teams.

Well, using common sense would work just fine.

No one is putting us ahead of those teams, necessarily, and 9 wins probably isn't going to take the division. But, if we can reach that point, we'd most likely move ahead of somebody, and probably two teams.

I just don't know if the roster is good enough to reach first place in this division yet, which is the same boat that the Giants are in. They, like us, are hoping for rebound years from lots of underachieving veterans. Philly is doing the young thing, again, and according to the FO projections, that puts them on level footing with us, albeit with an arrow pointing up instead of down.

That leaves just Dallas as someone that should, in theory, still be way ahead of us. Their argument that Dallas is going to be the non contender in this division is far from persuasive, IMO, but Dallas builds their team just like we do: good success on first round draft picks and lots of money spent in free agency without much of an eye on player development. Records aside, we've more or less alternated being better and worse than the Cowboys since 2003, so it's not unreasonable for the roles to flip in 2010 and us to beat them twice again.

I think we're at a bunch of disadvantages in Week 1, of course. Dallas is likely to be a much better team that week than later on in the season. Of course, the same could be said about this team.

Anyway, it shouldn't be hard to believe that we're even with Philly and ahead of NYG in projections because neither of those teams has improved much since last year. The gap between us and Dallas was far greater, and so if they fall from first to last, it makes it a lot easier for us to contend for a division title.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, using common sense would work just fine.

No one is putting us ahead of those teams, necessarily, and 9 wins probably isn't going to take the division. But, if we can reach that point, we'd most likely move ahead of somebody, and probably two teams.

I just don't know if the roster is good enough to reach first place in this division yet, which is the same boat that the Giants are in. They, like us, are hoping for rebound years from lots of underachieving veterans. Philly is doing the young thing, again, and according to the FO projections, that puts them on level footing with us, albeit with an arrow pointing up instead of down.

That leaves just Dallas as someone that should, in theory, still be way ahead of us. Their argument that Dallas is going to be the non contender in this division is far from persuasive, IMO, but Dallas builds their team just like we do: good success on first round draft picks and lots of money spent in free agency without much of an eye on player development. Records aside, we've more or less alternated being better and worse than the Cowboys since 2003, so it's not unreasonable for the roles to flip in 2010 and us to beat them twice again.

I think we're at a bunch of disadvantages in Week 1, of course. Dallas is likely to be a much better team that week than later on in the season. Of course, the same could be said about this team.

Anyway, it shouldn't be hard to believe that we're even with Philly and ahead of NYG in projections because neither of those teams has improved much since last year. The gap between us and Dallas was far greater, and so if they fall from first to last, it makes it a lot easier for us to contend for a division title.

I think you could say we're even w/ Philly. That seems like a fair statement. But I'd still say NY and Dallas are ahead of us.

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

You know, you make a great point. Very well supported.

LOL.....Look Dallas will win some games but in the end will choke ...Romo always does.As for the Giants ....Offensively QB ..Eli has gotten better and I think our young wide recievers are our best unit on O, the O line has gotten old fast but with healthy running backs which they did not have at all last year can be much better.
Defensively ......health is the question,if the Giants stay healthy on D...it's a very good unit .My own opinion is our biggest concern is MLBer will one of the rookies step up or will Goff play better with a healthy D line in front of him?Our DB's all took to many hits last year with the front 7 being decimated with the addition of Rolle at safety and a healthy front 7...the Giants can make some noise in the playoffs this year,if not Coughlin is gone and Bill Cowher will be the next coach of the NY Giants.

I try to stay away from predictions ...to many posibilties can change things...injuries and such but as of now this is how I see things shaping up.........

1) Giants...win divison
2)Skins...Wild card
3)Cowboys Wild card
4) Eagles

[djnemo65]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

So this guy has us better than the Giants and Dallas???? Um I don't think so. Right now those teams are better than we are. End of discussion.

As I understand it, Football Outsiders uses a fairly sophisticated mathematical formula for their predictions, it's not just some guy saying this is what I think. They have a pretty good track record in recent years too.

[RememberRFK]

The more the Redskins sign new players to one year deals, the more I'm ok with what they are doing. Keep it short and make 'em prove they are worth a long term deal. (gotta prove it first)

[GTripp0012]

Carlos Rogers isn't young anymore and Campbell's gone. That was the 05 draft. Rocky McIntosh has been shopped and may not be a scheme fit. He, Doughty, and Golston are the 06 draft. Landry is the 07 draft. Then Kelly, Thomas, Davis, Tryon and Rinehart in 08, and Orakpo/Barnes in 09. All we've gotten in development of that group is a stud edge rusher, a nickel corner (not counting Rogers, who is 29, and a UFA in 2011), a TE prospect, whatever Landry is these days, and a bunch of guys who could be replaced by veterans and we wouldn't miss them.

[artmonkforhallofamein07]

I would have to add a couple of things about the possiblity of next years free agency. There will be guys available, but it all depends on the new CBA getting done.

We can replenish the squad in FA and the draft next year, and continue building. I think we have thought of some fo the points the article brings up, but at the same time Shannahan and even Mcnabb are here beyond 3 years.

DS didn't fire Joe gibbs, he retired. I think this team is mike's for as long as he wants to coach which is going to be more than 3 years. Bruce Alllen is in it for the long hall as well.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

One way to change our plight would be to actually change the way that we build teams. But unmentioned by the article: if the Redskins can win in consecutive years, that would shut up a lot of the same story lines we've had to read forever.

Talk about a backhanded compliment.
He thinks we'll make the playoffs but are doing everything wrong long term.

I don't think the 2 are mutually exclusive and i don't think our moves from one off-season have hindered us long-term it depends on what we do next year and the year after that.

Originally Posted by Mike Tanier

But the Redskins haven’t built a true contender. They’ve built another version of their 2005 team, which went 10-6 in Gibbs’ second season. Gibbs promoted 35-year-old Mark Brunell over former top pick Patrick Ramsey that year, and Brunell had a 23-touchdown season. Eager to take the next step, Snyder and Cerrato added Antwaan Randle El, T.J. Duckett, Brandon Lloyd, and Adam Archuleta to the roster, even though Gibbs and his staff had no use for any of them but Randle El. The other three ate up cap and roster space, the Redskins fell to 5-11, and Brunell’s injuries led to a premature start of the Campbell era.

First off he's combining 2 off-seasons into 1 in the above exerpt.
Second, McNabb is cleary better then Mark Brunell.
Thrid, we don't know what moves we'll make next year and therefore he shouldn't assume that they'll be uneccesary and over-priced (money+draft picks).
Also, the moves we've made this off-season have all been inexpensive and we don't know as yet how they'll pan out.

Originally Posted by Mike Tanier

This year’s Redskins have an alarming number of players who are about to simultaneously grow old, and that’s not even counting lunatic acquisitions like Galloway. McNabb, Portis, Johnson, Parker, Santana Moss, Rabach, Philip Daniels, and London Fletcher are all at or approaching the downside of their careers, with Andre Carter and Derrick Dockery not far behind them. There are few obvious successors to these key players on the roster, and with training camp bloated with Galloway and Holliday types, it will be hard for the team to find and develop quality replacements.

Shanahan and Allen did not create the current situation with the age of the players and the Redskins are not unlike other NFL teams that are or need to begin re-tooling.

There is no doubt the backfield will need a youth infusion soon because there is no youth other then Torrian and that's if he makes the team.

WR position depends on Devin and Malcolm.

The OL is gonna have to get younger but i think players like Trent Williams, Rinehart, Lichtensteiger and Edwin Williams are a start.

I think were pretty good on defense with good youth and some successors in place, although not big name guys.

OLB has youth in Orakpo and 2 replacements waiting in the wings in Chirs Wilson and Lorenzo Alexander.
ILB has Rocky and Blades, Riley and Henson being groomed.
The secondary has similiar youth and depth.
DL/DE-NT has Haynesworth, Golston and Carricker.

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There are two sad elements to the Redskins plight. The first is that some in the Redskins organization will feel vindicated when the team loses in the second round of the playoffs

Imo, whenever a team makes it to the playoffs they have a chance to win the whole thing, just look at the 2005 Steelers.
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The second is that so many of the Redskins problems are obvious and avoidable. Anyone who looks carefully at the roster can see long-term disaster brewing, and it doesn’t take much imagination to find healthier alternatives to the path the Redskins chose

In 1 off-season we've chosen a "path"?

The Redskins could have Jake Delhomme or Derek Anderson as their starting quarterback, with second-round pick Jimmy Clausen waiting in the wings. Or, they could have given Campbell another year, used their second-round pick on a defensive playmaker like Sergio Kindle, and let their defense win a few games while Shanahan made tough decisions on offense.

No he's doing if then scenarios?
Another way to view is that having McNabb gives us the opportunity to draft and groom a QB in the Kolb, Rodgers manner while still remaining competitive.

Heck, they could have
pulled the trigger on the McNabb deal but held off on all of the Parker-Johnson-Galloway nonsense, increasing their odds of finding a great young back or receiver who will improve as McNabb fades.

We need to fill out our roster and having Galloway and Parker is no worse if not flat out better then having Marcus Mason and Marko Mitchell.