2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)

[skinsguy]

Originally Posted by Landry44

I have no doubt that the article quoted him. The thing is if RG3 said that a day ago it would all over espn and other sports outlets. So I highly doubt if that quote was recent.

Honestly, it would be the smartest thing any NFL prospect has ever done. Make sure your future is taken care of. Finish school, compete in the Olympics (which is a huge honor) and then see what the NFL has to offer. Sure, he can make big money in the NFL, but he can also get seriously hurt right away (not that I'd ever wish that on anybody) and never make it in the NFL. That makes me respect RG III that much more.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by skinsguy

I spotted this article yesterday on Robert Griffin III. I know there are a lot of Redskins fans (at least on ES) that want the 'skins to draft RG III next year. But, could it be possible that RG III decides not to even go into the NFL?

Robert Griffin III named Sporting News' player of the year - NCAA Football - Sporting News



Griffin's primary plan is to go to law school, and I think he wants to petition the NCAA to let him try out for the summer Olympics.

Wow. That's really going to hurt his draft position. I was really hoping we draft this kid. When was the last time we had a guy with this type of superstar potential? Maybe #21?

[MTK]

Yeah the Texans getting rid of Schaub seems like a real stretch at this point.

[skinsguy]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Yeah the Texans getting rid of Schaub seems like a real stretch at this point.

Yes, at this point, you are correct! And again, I did state, I see the Redskins drafting a QB more likely. BUT, what if, JUST WHAT IF, the Texans make it to the Super Bowl with Yates? WHAT IF, Yates breaks out during the playoffs and out plays ever other QB - at least on the AFC side. Would it be such a stretch then?

[MTK]

Originally Posted by skinsguy

Yes, at this point, you are correct! And again, I did state, I see the Redskins drafting a QB more likely. BUT, what if, JUST WHAT IF, the Texans make it to the Super Bowl with Yates? WHAT IF, Yates breaks out during the playoffs and out plays ever other QB - at least on the AFC side. Would it be such a stretch then?

Another stretch... IF Yates took them to the SB who knows. It would also depend on his contract situation.

[skinsguy]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Another stretch... IF Yates took them to the SB who knows. It would also depend on his contract situation.

Definitely right now, it's a stretch considering New England would just out score the Texans, and the Ravens D would give Yates a headache - however, I'm sure the same was said about Tom Brady back in the day, so who knows? We'll find out.

[The Goat]

?? What's Schaub's contract status?

[The Goat]

WTF Griffin wants to go to law school before being an NFL star?! Really?!

[NM Redskin]

Originally Posted by The Goat

WTF Griffin wants to go to law school before being an NFL star?! Really?!

Robert Griffin III's Parents Shopping For Agent, According To Report - SBNation.com

[Mechanix544]

The real question is.............

Should the skins......."Squeeze out a turd for Robert Griffin the third????""

[GTripp0012]

The hit to bust rate is about two-thirds hits to one third busts for the years 2002-2007 for first rounders that aren't also top ten picks. That's just a back of the napkin calculation that I did.

To recap: about 80% hits for top ten players
about 65% hits for 11-32.

I'm going to do a value analysis to see if the chances of getting a "big time" player in the top ten are much better than those odds.

[NYCskinfan82]

Wasn't we linked to picking up Matt Flynn the back-up QB in gray bay, he's a FA at the end of the season.

[GTripp0012]

A couple things on a study I am doing.

Between 1997-2006, a top ten overall pick was about 38% more valuable than a pick between 11-32, and about 22% more valuable than a random pick within the first round. A top five pick is about 27% more valuable than a random pick in the first round.

First overall picks come out as 55% more valuable, but that's more a sampling issue because my sample contains Peyton Manning. If you do the same thing but just from 1999-2006, first overall picks are only 14% more valuable than a random selection in the first round. Again, that's a sample size issue, which is why stat guys can't say "the first overall pick is with 'X'".

In fact, it's been harder to find a good QB in the top five picks in the last seven drafts than it has been in the rest of the first round. Again, that's a sampling issue. And the Aaron Rodgers effect.

The only metric I used was PFR's career AV. I did not take into account the value of the contract signed by draft position. Just the value of the players career to date. Obviously, this methodology underrates the value of players drafted in 2005 and 2006 vs. 1999 and 2000, but that's an evil I was willing to live with.

[REDSKINS4ever]

According to a report on Profootballtalk.com, RG3's parents are already interviewing agents.

Report: Robert Griffin III’s parents interviewing agents | ProFootballTalk

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by REDSKINS4ever

According to a report on Profootballtalk.com, RG3's parents are already interviewing agents.

Report: Robert Griffin III’s parents interviewing agents | ProFootballTalk

No surprise, A guy this smart knows the famous BoB Marley lyric, strike the hammer while the iron is hot. of course Silverback and Fred Davis could know that lyric too, but not the meaning