Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

what about merriman

Should I name the other 8 billion high draft picks who have been complete busts?

[MTK]

What makes Okoye a can't miss, future Pro Bowler?

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

What makes Okoye a can't miss, future Pro Bowler?

Nothing, and though most don't like Pasquarelli he does have an article on ESPN.com that goes right to this point.

Excerpt:
"Since 2000, there have been 26 defensive tackles selected in the first round and 59 chosen as first-day picks. Only six have played in even one Pro Bowl game, and 15 are out of the NFL entirely right now. The 2001 draft produced five of the six Pro Bowl tackles chosen since 2000 -- Seymour, Stroud, Casey Hampton, Jenkins and Rogers -- and the league might never see such a bounty at the position again."

Full Article:
ESPN.com - NFL/DRAFT07 - Pasquarelli: Teams struggle to find right inside man

[Longtimefan]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

Nothing, and though most don't like Pasquarelli he does have an article on ESPN.com that goes right to this point.

Excerpt:
"Since 2000, there have been 26 defensive tackles selected in the first round and 59 chosen as first-day picks. Only six have played in even one Pro Bowl game, and 15 are out of the NFL entirely right now. The 2001 draft produced five of the six Pro Bowl tackles chosen since 2000 -- Seymour, Stroud, Casey Hampton, Jenkins and Rogers -- and the league might never see such a bounty at the position again."

Full Article:
ESPN.com - NFL/DRAFT07 - Pasquarelli: Teams struggle to find right inside man

Maybe this fact, along with others are the reasons why the Redskins de-emphasize the draft and choose to aquire key players through FA. That has not always proved fruitful either, but at least they have some knowlrdge about how the player can/will perform on the NFL level. The draft is, and always will be a crap-shoot with the exception of a very few players. No one knows how a young player is going to perform uintil he puts on the uniform in the heat of battle, then the words "heart" and "desire" come to the forefront and seperate the men from the boys.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

What makes Okoye a can't miss, future Pro Bowler?

What makes him a can't miss? His age combined with his college experience and productivity and the value of the position on the field he plays.

What makes him a pro bowler? An educated guess. It's impossible to predict historic greatness, and not a whole lot easier to predict pro bowl type greatness.

You've just got to take the best prospect and hope for the best.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

What makes him a can't miss? His age combined with his college experience and productivity and the value of the position on the field he plays.

What makes him a pro bowler? An educated guess. It's impossible to predict historic greatness, and not a whole lot easier to predict pro bowl type greatness.

You've just got to take the best prospect and hope for the best.

So... what you're saying is he's not a can't-miss. That's the whole point.

[holmester]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

What makes Okoye a can't miss, future Pro Bowler?

I completely agree. It seems that everyone on this site thinks Okoye is something great but im really not sold on him. His selling points are that he is 19(hopefully will grow), a good character guy, and had a pretty good career but his career in no way indicates that he will be a dominate player in comparison to other DE's and DT's projected to go in the 1st round. He also played in the big east, as a hugh WVU fan I feel the Big east is a little underrated but i do realize that it doesnt have anything on the sec where alot of the other prospects are coming from. I would much rather trade down and pick up 2 defensive lineman then to push in all the chips on Okoye who is so overhyped in my opinion based on the fact that he is 19. A player I personally would love to pick up late is Jarvis Moss who has slipped considerably but who was a beast in the Sec, tore it up in the championship game, and who i have been seen be compared to former florida gator jevon kearse.

[Schneed10]

By the way, slightly unrelated, but speaking of trading picks, what are the chances that we trade one of next year's picks for some pick in round 2 or 3?

[freddyg12]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

By the way, slightly unrelated, but speaking of trading picks, what are the chances that we trade one of next year's picks for some pick in round 2 or 3?

I'd ordinarily say pretty high, but we've shown some restraint this year. I think Gibbs will want to do some deals but will be a lot stingier in negotiations & nothing will happen.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

By the way, slightly unrelated, but speaking of trading picks, what are the chances that we trade one of next year's picks for some pick in round 2 or 3?

Man I really hope not... but knowing the way the Skins operate you can't rule anything out.

[budw38]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

By the way, slightly unrelated, but speaking of trading picks, what are the chances that we trade one of next year's picks for some pick in round 2 or 3?

I would guess that will happen if the skins see a guy in the third round that they had rated as an early 2nd rd pick . I imagine if they are very high on a pass rusher who " slips " too far , they might make a trade . Lets just hope we get some impact from our draft this year and some returns down the road !

[diehardskin2982]

Nobody can predict the future. Based on what would be best for the team I think trading down and taking Alan Branch would be best. As far as he drops, the farther we go down taking as many picks as we can in the process... Like the ramsey draft. Pick up Brandon Merriweather in the second, then a gaurd in the 3rd. Whether or not we have the discipline to do that is yet to be seen.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Good point re: salary cap considerations. As I posted in another thread, for those of you who want to trade up to #2 to nab CJ, just consider that Reggie Bush got $23M guaranteed on a deal averaging $10M per year. Aside from Brady, Manning, Palmer, or Brees, is there anyone worth $10M per year?

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

Good point re: salary cap considerations. As I posted in another thread, for those of you who want to trade up to #2 to nab CJ, just consider that Reggie Bush got $23M guaranteed on a deal averaging $10M per year. Aside from Brady, Manning, Palmer, or Brees, is there anyone worth $10M per year?

Peter King began to touch on this issue in his latest MMQB entry, and I hope he goes into it further in the future. The draft was created as the great equalizer in the NFL. If your team stunk, you got the highest pick. If you were great, you got the lowest pick.

This worked well as an equalizing force in the pre-salary cap era. And to some extent it still worked well in the 1990s because the salaries at the top of the draft weren't so exhorbitant that they'd kill your cap. But now that salaries of the top 5 players in the draft have gotten so high, you wonder if teams are now better off being in the middle or even the end of the 1st round. The risk associated with missing on such a high-dollar player has risen right along with the rising contracts. With this increased risk, having the #1 pick is often viewed as a bad thing in a lot of ways. King told a story of how last year Charley Casserly called Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum and asked him if he'd be interested in trading for the Texans' #1 overall pick. Tannenbaum said "Sure, what else are you going to give me for it?"

The draft value chart which Jimmy Johnson's staff created in the early 1990s was spot-on back then. A #1 pick really was worth 3000 points. But now that the #1 pick commands over $20 million in guaranteed money, it's no wonder that nobody wants to trade up anymore. 3000 points and $25 million guaranteed? No way, Jose. The draft value chart needs to be adjusted to account for the massive change in salary structure.

That's why we'd be so much better off trading down if we can find a willing partner.

[freddyg12]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Peter King began to touch on this issue in his latest MMQB entry, and I hope he goes into it further in the future. The draft was created as the great equalizer in the NFL. If your team stunk, you got the highest pick. If you were great, you got the lowest pick.

This worked well as an equalizing force in the pre-salary cap era. And to some extent it still worked well in the 1990s because the salaries at the top of the draft weren't so exhorbitant that they'd kill your cap. But now that salaries of the top 5 players in the draft have gotten so high, you wonder if teams are now better off being in the middle or even the end of the 1st round. The risk associated with missing on such a high-dollar player has risen right along with the rising contracts. With this increased risk, having the #1 pick is often viewed as a bad thing in a lot of ways. King told a story of how last year Charley Casserly called Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum and asked him if he'd be interested in trading for the Texans' #1 overall pick. Tannenbaum said "Sure, what else are you going to give me for it?"

The draft value chart which Jimmy Johnson's staff created in the early 1990s was spot-on back then. A #1 pick really was worth 3000 points. But now that the #1 pick commands over $20 million in guaranteed money, it's no wonder that nobody wants to trade up anymore. 3000 points and $25 million guaranteed? No way, Jose. The draft value chart needs to be adjusted to account for the massive change in salary structure.

That's why we'd be so much better off trading down if we can find a willing partner.

good summary, I've thought for a while that the draft is antiquated w/the cap & free agency, but it continues as part of the cba simply due to it lending some structure to rookie contracts, even if the top ones are getting way high. It would take a total overhaul of the system to replace it, and given the 11th hour style of negotiating between the nflpa & nfl that has been too much in the past.