Forget the Game, what about the F...ing INJURIES?!

[mheisig]

Originally Posted by dgack

I was just thinking it would be interesting to try and quantify in numerical terms the losses this team has sustained to key personnel throughout the end of last season and beginning of this one, as compared to any other team.

Perhaps the problem lies not in the number of injuries or even the specifics of who got injured, but that our talent isn't well distributed among the different strings of players.

Obviously first-stringers are supposed to be better than second-stringers, but it really does seem like we are a top-heavy team who has a huge dropoff in talent level (or experience, or both) beyond our starters. I'm sure this is true of many teams but it seems like the great ones, the successful ones, do not have nearly as much of a drop when players go out.

Indy, for example, lost Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes to free agency, Marvin Harrison to injuries, plus at least a few other notables on defense, to say nothing of any line players they may have had injuries. And I think they have managed to win a few games this year.

That would be interesting data to have. It doesn't appear that NFL.com has any real access to it, if they even have a model for it.

I think there's also a tendency to overly stress the big-name, skill positions like WR, RB and QB and not pay enough attention to the less glamorous offensive line.

Our offensive line has been decimated. At one point the only original starter we had was Chris Samuels. That's almost unprecedented as far as I know. The Rams O-line has taken a big hit this year and look where they are.

I think you can evaluate skill position players on their individual merits. CP not doing well in open space beyond the LOS, Moss simply dropping everything that comes his way, those are individual skills to measure and analyze.

CP having a low YPC is effected by a huge number of variables, I'd argue the offensive line being the most important. JC's overall performance is obviously going to take a huge hit. He's fumbling a lot - why? Because he's getting hit a lot, which is the offensive line once again. Yeah he holds on a little too long and yeah he needs to just tuck that thing in when he feels pressure, but ultimately what do you expect when he's getting pressured all day long?

I'm rambling, but my point is I think maybe we underestimate that offensive line problems and the impact on every other aspect of the game.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by dgack

I was just thinking it would be interesting to try and quantify in numerical terms the losses this team has sustained to key personnel throughout the end of last season and beginning of this one, as compared to any other team.

Perhaps the problem lies not in the number of injuries or even the specifics of who got injured, but that our talent isn't well distributed among the different strings of players.

Obviously first-stringers are supposed to be better than second-stringers, but it really does seem like we are a top-heavy team who has a huge dropoff in talent level (or experience, or both) beyond our starters. I'm sure this is true of many teams but it seems like the great ones, the successful ones, do not have nearly as much of a drop when players go out.

Indy, for example, lost Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes to free agency, Marvin Harrison to injuries, plus at least a few other notables on defense, to say nothing of any line players they may have had injuries. And I think they have managed to win a few games this year.

I'm going to try to do this because I'm pretty interested also. If I come up with something substancial, I'll open a thread for it.

[dgack]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I'm going to try to do this because I'm pretty interested also. If I come up with something substancial, I'll open a thread for it.

So it's pretty easy to quantify the loss of production out of a back. On the defensive side, you should be able to quantify loss of production by taking the inverse (i.e., the loss of a negative force is a positive one). So big plays given up, takeaways, etc.

How to quantify the effects of an O-Line? Sacks, YPC average, anything else?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by dgack

So it's pretty easy to quantify the loss of production out of a back. On the defensive side, you should be able to quantify loss of production by taking the inverse (i.e., the loss of a negative force is a positive one). So big plays given up, takeaways, etc.

How to quantify the effects of an O-Line? Sacks, YPC average, anything else?

I'd have to compute the value for every player in a numerical way. It can be done of course, but there'd be a bit of subjectivity it in.

I wouldn't be able to do it for all teams, just the Redskins and a few others.

If you have a few teams you'd like me to compare to, just name em off.

[dgack]

I might be able to help run some of the numbers. What's your data source?

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by dgack

I was just thinking it would be interesting to try and quantify in numerical terms the losses this team has sustained to key personnel throughout the end of last season and beginning of this one, as compared to any other team.

Perhaps the problem lies not in the number of injuries or even the specifics of who got injured, but that our talent isn't well distributed among the different strings of players.

Obviously first-stringers are supposed to be better than second-stringers, but it really does seem like we are a top-heavy team who has a huge dropoff in talent level (or experience, or both) beyond our starters. I'm sure this is true of many teams but it seems like the great ones, the successful ones, do not have nearly as much of a drop when players go out.

Indy, for example, lost Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes to free agency, Marvin Harrison to injuries, plus at least a few other notables on defense, to say nothing of any line players they may have had injuries. And I think they have managed to win a few games this year.

True enough. However, we are not Indy and JC is no Peyton Manning. For a team that relies on it's O-line to pound the rock, losing the starting right side of the line is devastating. Call it an excuse and say that we should have more depth if you like, but I cannot help but think that this team which ran the ball so well in 2005 and 2006 despite the lack of a passing attack is having a lot of woes because of its inability to run the ball behind a patchwork line.

[dgack]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

True enough. However, we are not Indy and JC is no Peyton Manning. For a team that relies on it's O-line to pound the rock, losing the starting right side of the line is devastating. Call it an excuse and say that we should have more depth if you like, but I cannot help but think that this team which ran the ball so well in 2005 and 2006 despite the lack of a passing attack is having a lot of woes because of its inability to run the ball behind a patchwork line.

Agreed -- I guess what I am saying is, given that we know we want to be a grind-it-out, smash mouth team, perhaps we have made the personnel mistake of putting most of our eggs into few baskets. Any of those key O-line personnel go out, and suddenly, our entire offense falls into disarray.

The Indy comparison was not meant to be a direct comparison to our team as we are vastly different, however -- it was meant to show how a team can lose people that are really key to their existing gameplan, and they either adapt a new plan and execute it, or other personnel step up and do a great job in relief.

[CHIEF CHUCKING MY SPEAR]

get over it were not that good. If we played in the AFC we would be one of the worst teams, but in the NFC we have a chance at 8-8. We played with a professional team on sunday and got our ass handed to us.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by CHIEF CHUCKING MY SPEAR

get over it were not that good. If we played in the AFC we would be one of the worst teams, but in the NFC we have a chance at 8-8. We played with a professional team on sunday and got our ass handed to us.

We'd be one game out of first in the AFC North and in first place in the AFC West

[skinsguy]

Originally Posted by CHIEF CHUCKING MY SPEAR

get over it were not that good. If we played in the AFC we would be one of the worst teams, but in the NFC we have a chance at 8-8. We played with a professional team on sunday and got our ass handed to us.

Where's the compassion for your favorite team? Ugh...nevermind.

[dgack]

Hey GTripp,

Speaking of which teams we should compare to, I'd love to see some analysis compared to Denver. The whole "CP is a system back" argument got me thinking about how well Denver has kept their run game together over the years.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by dgack

Hey GTripp,

Speaking of which teams we should compare to, I'd love to see some analysis compared to Denver. The whole "CP is a system back" argument got me thinking about how well Denver has kept their run game together over the years.

This doesn't really answer your question....but:

In 2004, Reuben Droughns rushed for 1,240 yards at 4.5 per carry. Want to cite those stats as proof that Broncos backs are system backs? Well in 2005, Reuben Droughns rushed for 1,232 yards at 4.0 yards per carry with the Browns (who didn't have an O-line or a QB). In 2005, Mike Anderson was the Broncos rushing leader with 1,014 yards at 4.2 yards per carry. In 2006 he rushed for 183 yards at 4.7 yards per carry with the Ravens. In 2006, Tatum Bell rushed for 1,025 yards at 4.4 yards per carry. Bell is currently playing for the Lions and has rushed for 182 yards at 4.1 yards per carry.

As we all know, Denver had to go out and sign a aging big-name free agent with drug problems named Travis Henry. The Broncos haven't had anyone that has produced numbers close to Portis'. The Broncos have had a few 1,000 yard rushers, but it's not like they're producing Pro Bowl running backs every year.

In fact, between 2004 (the year Portis left Denver) and 2006, Portis rushed for more yards despite playing the early half of the of 2006 season with injuries and ending up on IR for the latter half of the season. Portis almost rushed for almost as many yards in two seasons as the Broncos leading rushers did in three.

[theBIGC_1982]

Well, I just saw a clip from the Redskins noon radio show. They asked Gibbs what's being done about all the hamstring and groin injuries. More stretching and less reps (because over working is causing muscle fatigue).

And I didn't catch when he came on board, but they now have a hamstring and groin specialist.

[GhettoDogAllStars]

For what it's worth, I heard Denver has the most starters out with injury. Something like 12 or 13.