Redskins Free Agency 2016

[SCRedskinsFan]

Originally Posted by Defensewins

You are exactly right. Niles Paul before his injury was turning into a great double threat TE - receiver and run blocker. We need more complete TE's that can do both.

Used properly Jordan Reed is a transcendent talent, perhaps the best route runner among tight ends in the NFL. Let's not short change what we witnessed last season. Niles is a more complete player perhaps, but not among the tight end elite.

Look at it this way, let's say both were free agents this spring. Who would have been snapped up first, and have gotten the much better contract? See what I mean?

As I said earlier, having both is a very nice problem to have...

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I definitely think some of you guys here have short memories. I think you're vastly underrating his ability to uncover. Reed took great strides forward this past season, but you need to be reminded that Paul is a very nice mix of blocking AND an ability to uncover.

Niles Paul 2014 Highlights

jordan reed: 55 yd/gm in 2013, 42 yd/gm in 2014, 68 yd/gm in 2015
niles paul: 9.5 yd/gm in 2012, 3.4 yd/gm in 2013, 32 yd/gm in 2014

not sure how jordan isn't the obvious #1. blocking is nice, and i'm sure paul's stat will also improve with cousins too, but reed makes plays that most TEs don't, and it's not like last year was the first time he looked good, it's just the first time he stayed healthy.

[over the mountain]

Are we really discussing Reed v Paul?

Paul has been decent and appeared to be geared up for a breakout season last year per coaches and him before injury but ...

Reed is a matchup nightmare that dictates coverage like only a handful of receiving threats in the entire league can. I dont see it as a Reed v Paul thing. Also, I think listing Paul as the starter week 1 last year was coaching motivation for Reed.

it seemed Reed played through some pain last year which was nice to see. I hope he continues that trend. Scares me that he is only 1 concussion away ...

[Meks]

Lulz at the current discussion. Reed is a FUCKING MONSTER. PERIOD. I like Niles alot, i think both on the field at the same time and rotatijg in and out will be aqesome for us. But theres not any comparison right now lol... i just hope and pray gruden is smarter than spurierr when running or passong with CERTAIN personell on the field lolllllll

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by That Guy

jordan reed: 55 yd/gm in 2013, 42 yd/gm in 2014, 68 yd/gm in 2015
niles paul: 9.5 yd/gm in 2012, 3.4 yd/gm in 2013, 32 yd/gm in 2014

not sure how jordan isn't the obvious #1. blocking is nice, and i'm sure paul's stat will also improve with cousins too, but reed makes plays that most TEs don't, and it's not like last year was the first time he looked good, it's just the first time he stayed healthy.

This only confirms what I've know all along. I'm the smartest motherfucker here.

Comparing Paul's stats from 2012 and 2013 isn't even relevant. In 2014 looking at total yards per game is even stupid because Reed started ahead of him for all but 4 games. But those 4? 4 catches for 86 yards. 8 catches for 99 yards and a TD. 6 catches for 68 yards. 4 catches for 60 yards.

That's well over a 1000 yard pace.

Listen, I'm not saying that after last season Reed doesn't deserve to be considered our #1 tight end. But Paul really came on in 2014 in subbing for Reed. His blocking is stronger, obv. So if I'm the coach, and Paul is healthy? I probably use Paul before Reed on most 1st and 10s. Now, 2nd and 7? 3rd and 5? I'd use Reed over Paul, if they're not both on the field at the same time. So Reed would end up getting more snaps than Paul for coach Schneed, but Paul would probably start simply because the game starts on a running down - 1st and 10. They're 1 and 1A.

I know the Redskins better than all y'all chumps and this proves it. Vernon Davis won't even sniff either of their jocks.

[Schneed10]

PS sticky that post because I can't wait to throw it back in your faces when Niles is right on Reed's heels this year for snaps.

[over the mountain]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

This only confirms what I've know all along. I'm the smartest motherfucker here.

I know the Redskins better than all y'all chumps and this proves it. Vernon Davis won't even sniff either of their jocks.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

This only confirms what I've know all along. I'm the smartest motherfucker here.
.

keep telling yourself that. let's extrapolate some other numbers from 4 games and randomly declare that's proof without considering reversion to mean and completely dismiss anything that doesn't fit our argument, like an entire year where both players played in the same system, because reasons!

btw, paul had 8 game starts, and most of them were 1 catch for 7 yard affairs. 2 of his games without reed ended up with 17 yards combined, which plunges his projected total down below 900 yards if you're only counting games reed didn't play (you can throw in his 17 yards from the TB game too if you want).

i'm not saying he's bad, and obviously kirk is going to help him, but you're not pulling reed for him. if you're managing people and you want to resign reed, pulling him on every 1st and 10 and denying him starts is a great way to make sure that doesn't happen.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by That Guy

keep telling yourself that. let's extrapolate some other numbers from 4 games and randomly declare that's proof without considering reversion to mean and completely dismiss anything that doesn't fit our argument, like an entire year where both players played in the same system, because reasons!

btw, paul had 8 game starts, and most of them were 1 catch for 7 yard affairs. 2 of his games without reed ended up with 17 yards combined, which plunges his projected total down below 900 yards if you're only counting games reed didn't play (you can throw in his 17 yards from the TB game too if you want).

i'm not saying he's bad, and obviously kirk is going to help him, but you're not pulling reed for him. if you're managing people and you want to resign reed, pulling him on every 1st and 10 and denying him starts is a great way to make sure that doesn't happen.

Why would you look at Paul's receiving production in games where Reed played? The point is to illustrate that when Paul is given the role of being the primary receiving TE, he produces. Of course when Reed plays he is going to get first crack at the receiving targets, I've acknowledged all along that he's a better option in that regard. When Reed played in those games, Niles was given more of the in-line blocking responsibility, which speaks to why he didn't end up with huge receiving games. But that doesn't mean he can't do it, look at that four game production. And you're going to tell me after watching those games that that level of receiving production isn't sustainable? Why, because reversion to the mean, basically the statistical version of 'well I don't know he'll come back to Earth but I know he's never done this before, soo...'. Reversion to the mean works well when you're talking about a 30 year old first baseman whose track record is long established hitting .400 on balls put into play, but it means exactly jack squat when you're talking about a breakout player like Paul. Turn on the tape, what's not sustainable? The separating speed? The route running? The nose for the soft spot in the zone?

Get out of here with this reversion to the mean nonsense.

[Schneed10]

As for the managing people point, Reed will not have a problem with not being on the field on the opening play. Players don't care about that. He will care about snaps, targets, receptions, and especially those of the red zone variety.

He'll get his 1000+ yards WHEN Jay plays Paul on most running downs.

Eat a bag of smashed assholes and bow to my superiority.

[SCRedskinsFan]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

As for the managing people point, Reed will not have a problem with not being on the field on the opening play. Players don't care about that. He will care about snaps, targets, receptions, and especially those of the red zone variety.

He'll get his 1000+ yards WHEN Jay plays Paul on most running downs.

Eat a bag of smashed assholes and bow to my superiority.

Not so fast oh great Schneed person.

Forget about all the fancy stats. Forget about who you (or Jay Gruden) like better. Just tell me this: Who do you think would be picked up first by another team if both were on the market as free agents.

See what I mean? It's not so hard, Reed>>>>>Paul. Not even close.

And I happen to like Niles Paul a lot. Good football player.

[Irrefutable]

Reggie Nelson reportedly headed to Oakland

[MTK]

Reed all day over Paul.

No contest.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by SCRedskinsFan

Not so fast oh great Schneed person.

Forget about all the fancy stats. Forget about who you (or Jay Gruden) like better. Just tell me this: Who do you think would be picked up first by another team if both were on the market as free agents.

See what I mean? It's not so hard, Reed>>>>>Paul. Not even close.

And I happen to like Niles Paul a lot. Good football player.

Yeah because you pay for production in the free agent market. Smart organizations build through the draft because they're looking for CAPABILITY, and when they get a good coach who recognizes the capability, they get production by putting the player in position to succeed.

What I'm saying isn't that Jordan Reed isn't a boss, I'm saying Niles is one too. Possibly almost as much of one. I'm glad we got Davis, because this means we are planning lots of multiple TE sets, because Jay knows how good Paul is. He's not going to take him off the field much. Davis will get in line blocking responsibility, Reed will be the dominant receiving threat and our red zone moneymaker, and Paul will be the jack of all trades. He'll come out of the h-back, he'll motion out, he'll block down, all of it.

When you have a guy that can both run AND block like Niles, it allows you to disguise the play call. If you put Reed in the slot you know what's going to happen. Defense probably still can't stop it, but Niles will still get on the field because his skill set is such that we won't tip off the defense.

[Schneed10]

I know Reed gets all the glory because of his fantasy stats. Sick route runner, huge red zone threat, all of that. But you guys have to remember the flip side. Our running game was garbage last year. For many reasons, not just because of TE. But the absence of Paul and Paulsen really hurt, and exposed Reed as an unacceptable run blocker.

He's too valuable to come off the field, but we should never give him blocking responsibility unless we can help it. That's why Paul is so crucial.