26-27-60 QB formula

[drew54]

Stanzi 30 - 32 - 59.8%

Missed it by .02.

[GTripp0012]

I also don't feel like 60% should be the baseline for completion percentage. 62% is an average college completion percentage. If you're below 57%, you pretty much don't have the skill to complete passes. But 60% and 58% are both below the average. Neither is at 62%. So there's no reason that Mallett, Stanzi, and Kaepernick should "fail" in completion percentage while Gabbert "passes." Gabbert us higher, but below the average.

If you bumped up the baseline to 62%, only really great prospects would get past. And also, the only guy who would have passed the rule this year is McElroy.

[GTripp0012]

Devlin, Tolzien, TJ Yates all pass as well, and are all great late round prospects in the form of Greg McElroy.

[30gut]

The accuracy or predictive value of forecasting is a myth.

It leads to this type of spurious logic:

"Has there ever been a red-headed quarterback in the NFL who's really done well?" a coach asked one reporter last week. "It sounds idiotic, but is there any way that could be a factor? We've wondered."

From MMQB Peter King

Read more: Despite an explosion in information - 04.25.11 - SI Vault

Rotoworld points out that red-headed quarterbacks historically haven't been successful in the NFL. They cite the likes of Jeff Garcia and Todd Marinovich. Carson Palmer is also a red head, but I'm not sure if he helps the concern or goes against it.

Its also a myth that comp%=accuracy.
Accuracy is about ball placement and ball placement can only be determined by watching a QB throw a tedious amount of throws.

Its also a myth that comp% is a variable that one can reasonably isolate and attribute to the QB alone without factoring in scheme, personnel i.e pass protection and receiver talent.

At the end of the day QB evaluation and football evaluation in general doesn't lend itself to evaluation through stats alone.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by 30gut

The accuracy or predictive value of forecasting is a myth.

It leads to this type of spurious logic:


Its also a myth that comp%=accuracy.
Accuracy is about ball placement and ball placement can only be determined by watching a QB throw a tedious amount of throws.

Its also a myth that comp% is a variable that one can reasonably isolate and attribute to the QB alone without factoring in scheme, personnel i.e pass protection and receiver talent.

At the end of the day QB evaluation and football evaluation in general doesn't lend itself to evaluation through stats alone.

Locker is the weirdest prospect I've seen in terms of accuracy.

Spent early career in option-heavy system and last two seasons in pro-style offense with lousy pass protection. Has become a product of environment, as a result. Is more comfortable throwing under fire while on the run than from within the pocket. He has excellent accuracy when throwing on the run and/or outside the pocket (approximately 70-percent in 2010). Oregon State 2010 game is a good example (completed 71.4-percent of throws outside the pocket compared to 57-percent of throws inside the pocket). Looks least comfortable when he's in pocket going through progression reads. He has a long stride at times, which throws off his balance and prevents him from transferring weight from back-to-front. He appears to be thinking too much about mechanics and does not look natural unless he's throwing from on the run.

[MTK]

Unbelievable that hair color would even be brought up.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Unbelievable that hair color would even be brought up.

He'd fit in well here as a WP member in the offseason.



Follow-up:


The search for the greatest ginger quarterback of all time | Kissing Suzy Kolber




Unbelievable, do a Google search for red-haired quarterbacks and check out the results for several pages. This is a huge issue apparently.

I say, draft Dalton.
red-haired quarterbacks - Google Search




Also,

[skinsfan69]

All of this over analyzing, off season testing, college completion % really doesn't mean anything. All that matters is what a guy does once he gets on a team and adjusts to the pro game. Out of all of these QB's, which one can come in and command an NFL playbook? Which one can get hit in the mouth and get up and throw a td pass? Which one is mentally tough or can maybe play through pain? We're really not going to know until they get drafted and start playing.

[Defensewins]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

All of this over analyzing, off season testing, college completion % really doesn't mean anything. All that matters is what a guy does once he gets on a team and adjusts to the pro game. Out of all of these QB's, which one can come in and command an NFL playbook? Which one can get hit in the mouth and get up and throw a td pass? Which one is mentally tough or can maybe play through pain? We're really not going to know until they get drafted and start playing.

Thank you. I am tired of all of the speculation and opinion. Can not wait for the draft to be here and for the season to start. As usual we will all be proved wrong once the rookie QB's got on the NFL field. Who will be the next diamond in the rough Tom Brady? That is what people will notice, not the top QB's that were expected to be good.

[Swarley]

just to back up your point:

Despite a decent streak in the last three drafts, NFL general managers haven't improved much in picking the most important player on the field. From 1980 to '95 (16 drafts), teams selected 35 first-round passers. Nine, from John Elway to Kerry Collins, became consistent long-term starters or stars. Ten, from Art Schlichter to Heath Shuler, had very little impact. The others either were middle-of-the-road players or were derailed by injuries.

From 1996 to 2010 (15 drafts), G.M.'s chose 36 first-round quarterbacks. Excluding Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow, who just finished their rookie years, that leaves 34 QBs. Of those, 11 appear to be long-term starters or stars (if you include recent picks Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco), and eight appear to be busts or doomed by injury.

We'll call the bust rate 29% in the earlier group and 24% over the last 15 years, with 26% stars before to 32% now. It's a little better, but not the change you might expect from the information explosion of the last two decades, all the tools and analytics teams employ to determine if a prospect is the next Dan Marino or Dan McGwire. "Why is it still such an inexact science?" Harbaugh says. "Because there's still some variables you just can't measure."

Read more: Despite an explosion in information - 04.25.11 - SI Vault

[cdskins26]

The way the media has scrutinized these quarterbacks in the lead up to the draft seems unusually high this year. It seems like there is no quarterbacks without major flaws, and that nobody is worth taking a flier on. How does Blaine Gabbert put up a mediocre season in missouri's gimmick offense, and is now in the equation for a top 5 pick, whereas guys like Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett have okay or good seasons with comparable (or much tougher) schedules and are valued way lower. I'm still sticking with either Mallett or Locker at this point as my pick.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by cdskins26

The way the media has scrutinized these quarterbacks in the lead up to the draft seems unusually high this year. It seems like there is no quarterbacks without major flaws, and that nobody is worth taking a flier on. How does Blaine Gabbert put up a mediocre season in missouri's gimmick offense, and is now in the equation for a top 5 pick, whereas guys like Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett have okay or good seasons with comparable (or much tougher) schedules and are valued way lower. I'm still sticking with either Mallett or Locker at this point as my pick.

Technically it's a very deep QB class but the thing that at least scares off many fans is the lack of High Floor High Ceiling types. In fact it scares people off every year. People here in Atlanta yelled at Dimitroff for taking Ryan over Dorsey. "Are you kidding me? The guys inaccurate. He throws to many picks. He can't even win the ACC! Build the trenches then draft a QB." Now people are all Matty Ice this Matty Ice that.

Raven fans thought Newsome had lost it when they traded up into the first round to take Flacco. "A spread QB from an FCS school? We're doomed."

Bottom line, unless you're drafting Andrew Luck or have built in the trenches for years with nothing to show for it like St. Louis your fans will yell at you for taking a QB. Lol, thats why Ram fans got on board with Bradford. While we were talking about the shoulder and the risk of injury the Ram fans were like "if we draft another freaking lineman I'm going to shoot myself."

[MTK]

Locker needs some good coaching IMO. I think a lot of his issues are with mechanics, mainly footwork. Correctable stuff at the next level. If he had real accuracy problems, he wouldn't have gone 40/42 at his pro day. Even at a scripted workout, balls would be hitting the dirt or sailing over people's heads if he had a real problem with throwing the football.

I'd be more concerned with someone like Newton, who threw some god awful balls at his pro day.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Locker needs some good coaching IMO. I think a lot of his issues are with mechanics, mainly footwork. Correctable stuff at the next level. If he had real accuracy problems, he wouldn't have gone 40/42 at his pro day. Even at a scripted workout, balls would be hitting the dirt or sailing over people's heads if he had a real problem with throwing the football.

I'd be more concerned with someone like Newton, who threw some god awful balls at his pro day.

At the very least Lockers accuracy problems aren't nearly as black and white as some want to believe.

[irish]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Locker needs some good coaching IMO. I think a lot of his issues are with mechanics, mainly footwork. Correctable stuff at the next level. If he had real accuracy problems, he wouldn't have gone 40/42 at his pro day. Even at a scripted workout, balls would be hitting the dirt or sailing over people's heads if he had a real problem with throwing the football.

I'd be more concerned with someone like Newton, who threw some god awful balls at his pro day.

I agree with you about Newton. Theisman was on the radio here in DC saying that he is shocked Carolina is talking about taking Newton #1 when he doesnt think he's even 1st round material. JT thinks Newton only has 1 year as a starter in an O where the QB runs alot plus when he does throw he has accuracy problems and that doesnt bode well for success as an NFL QB. For once I agree with JT.