IF We Take A QB At #10...Who Do You Want?

[juskins]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

I'm not trying to compare the two, but the thing with Locker you have to remember is, Dan Marino had a poor senior year compared to his junior year and his stock plummeted. He still turned out to be a pretty good QB.

Some have suggest that Mallett is immobile (which I disagree) and yet you make a comparison of Locker and Marino, saying that Marino had a disappointing senior year at Pittsburgh. All true but what you didn't mention was that Marino was a pure pocket passer and not mobile as Locker is. Dan had great success and set many records. In fact, most of the successful QBs are pocket passers and don't rely that much on escaping the rush.

[Counter-Tre]

I vote for 14 year old Kayla Hochhalter who participated in today's pregame Youth Football Punt, Pass and Kick competition. Good mechanics, an absolute cannon for an arm, and kicks field goals better than Gano.

[44Deezel]

Until I see a guy like Newton win a Super Bowl, I'll lean towards pocket passers. Regardless, the Skins need to keep drafting QBs until they find a guy who will emerge as one of the top 5-10 QBs in the league. Look at the teams who consistently make the playoffs. They're typically the teams with the best QBs. For the most part, the best QBs in the NFC made the playoffs this year and only Rivers (who is no stranger to the playoffs) and Schaub missed out in the AFC. It's a Quarterback-driven league. That said, I'd take Mallet.

[skinsfaninok]

Locker

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

Until I see a guy like Newton win a Super Bowl, I'll lean towards pocket passers. Regardless, the Skins need to keep drafting QBs until they find a guy who will emerge as one of the top 5-10 QBs in the league. Look at the teams who consistently make the playoffs. They're typically the teams with the best QBs. For the most part, the best QBs in the NFC made the playoffs this year and only Rivers (who is no stranger to the playoffs) and Schaub missed out in the AFC. It's a Quarterback-driven league. That said, I'd take Mallet.

Is consistently making the playoffs really the ultimate goal though? What you're suggesting is defensible if that's the end game, because I think the playoff field, predominantly, is of the quarterbacks having the best years.

There's very little evidence to suggest that the better quarterback of two teams advances in the playoffs if the teams are equally skilled. And I think you're suggesting that instead of trying to build the best possible team, it's more important to find the best possible young quarterback.

If the goal is multiple championships, I think you build independent of the quarterback and hope to get a little lucky along the way, particularly through channels of player development. If the goal is to systematically build a playoff contender and hope to get the luck on the back end (the 2006 Colts, for example), then a top-level passing game would seemingly be the best way to do that.

[GTripp0012]

This is a good illustration.

Just for fun, I ran a single season search for the BEST EVER seasons by quarterback who posted completion percentages as poor as one would expect Locker to post in the pros based on his college struggles.

The results are here.

And for this one, I raised the baseline a bit to increase the margin for error on Locker's projection.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

This is a good illustration.

Just for fun, I ran a single season search for the BEST EVER seasons by quarterback who posted completion percentages as poor as one would expect Locker to post in the pros based on his college struggles.

Wait how do you know what expect from Locker?
I wouldn't have pegged you as a stat guy when it comes to QB evaluation.
I've watched quite a few Washington games and if you haven't watched them play you don't have a context to understand Locker's stats/comp%.

E.g. I've charted Locker's throws from the USC game and there were 5 flat out drops and a few throw aways and although i haven't charted everygame available on youtube i've watched most, and know a Husky fan that tells me that the drops were a very common occurance all season.

Question:
Would you or the people in this forum be interested in a thread on the top QB prospects?
A thread that invite people to take a closer look (past the stats) at the commonly available game cut-ups (youtube) and discuss the particular plays from the same game so all have the same frame of reference and can discuss the specific plays that lead to the stats in context.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Wait how do you know what expect from Locker?
I wouldn't have pegged you as a stat guy when it comes to QB evaluation.
I've watched quite a few Washington games and if you haven't watched them play you don't have a context to understand Locker's stats/comp%.

E.g. I've charted Locker's throws from the USC game and there were 5 flat out drops and a few throw aways and although i haven't charted everygame available on youtube i've watched most, and know a Husky fan that tells me that the drops were a very common occurance all season.

I just assumed that you didn't have time to go through everyones (all 18) QB prospects with a higher completion percentage than Jake Locker and chart their drops.

I'm sure Locker (like all college QBs) is plagued by drops that could extend drives and help his offense score more points. Which sucks for him. In that case, just assume that Locker's inclusion among the linked list is because his pro receivers continue to drop his balls, since the low completion % numbers Locker will post in the pros will not be his fault.

[30gut]

I'm not sure why you choose to post in this manner and to be honest i'm a bit surprised and dissappointed.
But, to each their own.

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I just assumed that you didn't have time to go through everyones (all 18) QB prospects with a higher completion percentage than Jake Locker and chart their drops.

Wow um okay, why would i do that?
My point is that having watched the USC game i know that Locker had 5 drops.
If you look only at the stats you don't get the context.
And the context is that Washington is a re-building program w/ limited talent on offense outside of Locker.

-Judging by your response i take you aren't interested in discussing the way Locker played in the actual game?

In that case, just assume that Locker's inclusion among the linked list is because his pro receivers continue to drop his balls, since the low completion % numbers Locker will post in the pros will not be his fault

Those predictions are close to meaningless.
One could easily have a model that projected QBs from college w/ high comp% that either went undrafted or were total busts in the NFL.

QB evalution is less about stats then about scouting.
Bill Walsh listed his college QB evaluation criteria in sum like this:
Competitive
Arm Strength
Complete Inventory
Quick delivery
Touch
Read defense
Mobility+Avoidance
Function while injured
Not easily rattled
Spontaneous decision/genius

He made no mention of stats nor of comp %.

HTTR!

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I'm not sure why you choose to post in this manner and to be honest i'm a bit surprised and dissappointed.
But, to each their own.

Wow um okay, why would i do that?
My point is that having watched the USC game i know that Locker had 5 drops.
If you look only at the stats you don't get the context.
And the context is that Washington is a re-building program w/ limited talent on offense outside of Locker.

-Judging by your response i take you aren't interested in discussing the way Locker played in the actual game?


Those predictions are close to meaningless.
One could easily have a model that projected QBs from college w/ high comp% that either went undrafted or were total busts in the NFL.

Ugh.

The point was that you made a argument based around Locker's dropped passes. It's not the first time I've heard the argument; Todd McShay (for example) made the same one before he changed his opinion on Locker. "He's accurate, but the numbers don't show it. You'll just have to trust me on this one." It's not a unique or insane argument, it's just weak.

There is a standard expectation for ability for a college quarterback who wants to be drafted in 2011, and Locker falls well short of that standard. That's what his whole body of work says. I am VERY interested in looking at Locker's film to see what he does well and not so well. I am far less interested in trying to cross my eyes while watching said film to see a passer with requisite NFL accuracy. Which apparently is something that Bill Walsh didn't value.

I'm perfectly willing to give you that Locker had five dropped passes in the USC game against him if you're willing to give me the fact that, in the course of a college career, that doesn't change much (he won the game after all).

[FRPLG]

I don't see anyway we go QB at 10. Does anyone actually think Shanny is going to look at any of these guys and think they are his guy? I guess I'm fine if our goal is to pick one and play him right away so we can go 1-15 and pick Luck next year with our first pick (sarcasm). I'd chew off my toenail rather than waste a pick on one of these bums just because we need a QB. I don't see a single one that looks like they'll amount to much in the NFL honestly.

[skinsfaninok]

I think Locker will be the best QB in this years draft

[cdskins26]

Do you think locker could beat out grossman and start day 1?

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by cdskins26

Do you think locker could beat out grossman and start day 1?

I think he's capable of starting day1 BUT MS won't let that happen IMO.. Rex will be the guy next season, at least 4-6 games

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by cdskins26

Do you think locker could beat out grossman and start day 1?

No, nor would I want him to if we selected him. As a refererence Cutler didn't play until week 13 his rookie year. Griese threw 3 passes in one random game during his rookie year.

Still I would rather our QB have sometime to learn weather it's most of his rookie year or into his second year. The trick is time everything up. QB's take two to three years till they really get it at the NFL level. Really good lineman like Trent take about half a season, while most lineman need a year or two. Receivers take about a year. Personally I never believed the whole 3 years for receivers. If they get it you'll see sooner rather then later.