Kirk Cousins 24/7 thread

[Bucket]

Its December 2017 at Fed Ex Field and the 2-11 Washington Redskins take the field. Led by Nate Sudfield after Colt McCoy ended ANOTHER season with injury. Their opponent is the 11-2 Denver Broncos led by Kirk Cousins and their first year Head Coach Kyle Shanahan.

Since we play Denver at home next year. I figured this scenario would be very "Redskin-ish".

But Hey...Lets not Re-sign Kirk. Whats the worse that can happen? Lol

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by Bucket

Its December 2017 at Fed Ex Field and the 2-11 Washington Redskins take the field. Led by Nate Sudfield after Colt McCoy ended ANOTHER season with injury. Their opponent is the 11-2 Denver Broncos led by Kirk Cousins and their first year Head Coach Kyle Shanahan.

Since we play Denver at home next year. I figured this scenario would be very "Redskin-ish".

But Hey...Lets not Re-sign Kirk. Whats the worse that can happen? Lol

And this is what would prob happen

[htownskinfan]

I'm sure this is not going to change anyones mind one way or the other,but I am shocked at how bad they grade Cousins,barely over griffin.But their rankings had Trent Williams grade as the top overall player at any position.
NFL1000: Final Regular Season Breakdown of the League's Top Players | Bleacher Report

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by htownskinfan

I'm sure this is not going to change anyones mind one way or the other,but I am shocked at how bad they grade Cousins,barely over griffin.But their rankings had Trent Williams grade as the top overall player at any position.
NFL1000: Final Regular Season Breakdown of the League's Top Players | Bleacher Report

The validity of the analytical methods used here is highly, highly questionable. Never do they establish a link between their methodology and winning - you have to demonstrate that there's a correlation between your scoring and the probability of winning. They certainly don't at all. I wouldn't use this data.

Use ESPN's QBR, or PFF's DVOA, or Football Outsiders, or some of the other strong analytical groups that actually have pages describing how their methodology is connected to win probability.

ESPN's QBR is by far the strongest.

[Bucket]

Originally Posted by htownskinfan

I'm sure this is not going to change anyones mind one way or the other,but I am shocked at how bad they grade Cousins,barely over griffin.But their rankings had Trent Williams grade as the top overall player at any position.
NFL1000: Final Regular Season Breakdown of the League's Top Players | Bleacher Report

They guy who did those rankings is widely known as a Kirk hater on twitter. He blocks anyone who disagrees with him and refuses to go on the radio to explain.

He also had Sam Bradford, Cam Newton in his top 5 QB this year

[NCSUredskin]

Kirk has to be the future as of right now, who else are we seriously going to get? I don't want to go out and sign some free agent, and the draft is chalked full of crap QBs this year....to me our only option is Kirk, unfortunately he chokes in big games, which is very Romo-esque

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by htownskinfan

I'm sure this is not going to change anyones mind one way or the other,but I am shocked at how bad they grade Cousins,barely over griffin.But their rankings had Trent Williams grade as the top overall player at any position.
NFL1000: Final Regular Season Breakdown of the League's Top Players | Bleacher Report

Not to continuously shit on this post, but Bleacher Report. I cant trust anything they say

[SirLK26]

Originally Posted by NCSUredskin

Kirk has to be the future as of right now, who else are we seriously going to get? I don't want to go out and sign some free agent, and the draft is chalked full of crap QBs this year....to me our only option is Kirk, unfortunately he chokes in big games, which is very Romo-esque

Really, how may big games has Kirk choked in? Green Bay in the playoffs last season? I'll give you he didnt play well, but the whole team stunk it up, not just him. Week 17 New York this season? Again yes, but the whole team stunk it up. Week 16 last season vs the Eagles to clinch the division was a big game where he played well. If you wanna throw in Carolina this season as a choke, then you have to throw in a number of games towards the end of last season where he was clutch. I just don't think there's a big enough sample size to say he's a choker

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

The validity of the analytical methods used here is highly, highly questionable. Never do they establish a link between their methodology and winning - you have to demonstrate that there's a correlation between your scoring and the probability of winning. They certainly don't at all. I wouldn't use this data.

Use ESPN's QBR, or PFF's DVOA, or Football Outsiders, or some of the other strong analytical groups that actually have pages describing how their methodology is connected to win probability.

ESPN's QBR is by far the strongest.

NFL Total Quarterback Rating - National Football League - ESPN

For the lazy KC is top 5.

[Schneed10]

For the uninitiated, here's the very basics on how QBR works.

If you're at your own 20, and it's first and 10, there's a certain expectation for the number of points the average QB can be expected to put up in that situation. Maybe the average QB finishes some drives starting in that position with a FG, maybe finishes some starting there with a TD, maybe some with a punt, and maybe some in a turnover. When you add it all up, maybe the typical QB comes away with 2 points on average in those situations. So we say a 1st and 10 at your 20 is worth 2 expected points on the scoreboard.

Well if you hit a 30 yard pass taking the ball to the 50, and then you have 1st and 10 from there, well you've just improved your odds to score points on this drive significantly. Your chances of at least getting a FG have gone way up, right? And your chances of finishing with a TD have improved, too. So when you look at the average points scored by the average QB on drives starting at 1st and 10 from the 50, the average points scored there might be 3.

So in other words, hitting that 30 yard pass to go from your own 20 to the 50 improved your expected points scored by 1 whole point. You were expected to get 2 points out of the drive when you were at the 20, and you're expected to get 3 out of drive from the 50. The difference is the impact you made on the play.

Now, let's say you're 1st and goal from the 5. The expectation might be you'll get 5 points out of that situation, on average. If you throw a pass and you get the TD, you get credit for scoring 7, so that throw was worth 2 points. Likewise, if you go 3 and out and have to attempt a FG, then your expected points drop from 5 to 3, so you get hit with a -2 expected points for failing to come up with that TD.

So it weights the play you make against the expected outcome given the situation. And then ESPN goes a step further to assign a clutch weighting. If you make a big throw in the 4th quarter when you're down by one score, they weight that much more heavily than if you make a big throw when you're down by 3 TDs in the 4th quarter (garbage time).

Then they take the results and they index them, with 50 being average and 100 being perfect.

So it does a great job of measuring a QB's impact on the likelihood that his team will win the game. Still, there's a factor built in there - if your team protects you well and your receivers get open well, then you're more likely to succeed and end up with a better QBR. So you have to adjust for that.

If you see a QB rated highly in QBR despite a crappy line and mediocre receivers, you should basically consider that QB a god. Andrew Luck jumps out - being 7th in QBR despite that horrendous surrounding cast speaks to just how amazing he is. If he gets a surrounding cast, watch out!

Likewise, Cousins is not the 5th best QB in the league. He has performed that way because our line is boss and our receivers are plentiful. Don't get me wrong, I'd still pay him. But you have to mentally adjust a bit for surrounding cast and circumstances.

[mooby]

Originally Posted by htownskinfan

I'm sure this is not going to change anyones mind one way or the other,but I am shocked at how bad they grade Cousins,barely over griffin.But their rankings had Trent Williams grade as the top overall player at any position.
NFL1000: Final Regular Season Breakdown of the League's Top Players | Bleacher Report

I can't tolerate any website that will autoplay an annoying ass video at high volume, but when you search the page to turn that shit off you can't find the video.

[NCSUredskin]

Originally Posted by SirLK26

Really, how may big games has Kirk choked in? Green Bay in the playoffs last season? I'll give you he didnt play well, but the whole team stunk it up, not just him. Week 17 New York this season? Again yes, but the whole team stunk it up. Week 16 last season vs the Eagles to clinch the division was a big game where he played well. If you wanna throw in Carolina this season as a choke, then you have to throw in a number of games towards the end of last season where he was clutch. I just don't think there's a big enough sample size to say he's a choker

I guess it was a little harsh to consider a full on choke artist, but we only have 2 years to look at, and it's trending that way, but let me be clear I am on the side of signing him to a long term deal

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by mooby

I can't tolerate any website that will autoplay an annoying ass video at high volume, but when you search the page to turn that shit off you can't find the video.

that site is just a general pain in the ass. They really don't give a shit about sports, but how many clicks they can garner. garbage writers too.

[warriorzpath]

Off topic a little but since we're talking rating QBs and media- it irks me when some media people say stuff like I don't believe in clutch. It's hard to take anything else they say seriously.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by warriorzpath

Off topic a little but since we're talking rating QBs and media- it irks me when some media people say stuff like I don't believe in clutch. It's hard to take anything else they say seriously.

Those people have never played sports in their life.

A 12 year old pitching in the final inning of a 3-2 little league tournament game, win or go home, understands the concept of clutch.