Updated: Discuss our Backup QB Situation (formerly Byron Leftwich)

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

Off the top of my head, both John Madden and Clinton Portis think Brennan is going to be a baller some day. He is a QB hand-picked by Zorn so Zorn saw something in him.

Madden's just hyping a pre-season game, Clinton Portis has zero credibility in evaluating a QB prospect, Zorn used a 6th round pick on a project QB. Didn't Gibbs take Jordan Palmer with a 5th, where is Palmer now.

As to your Timmy Chang comparison, its insulting.

You may want to fully read the wiki on Chang again. The comparison is far from insulting. Both played for U of Hawaii in the June Jones offensive system, which creates Passing Stat monsters. Chang still holds several NCAA passing records (INTs, Offensive yards, Career Passing, and is third in total TDs). Chang was on NFL rosters for two years before being out (probably the same for CB) and picking up with the CFL. Chang is 6' 1", CB is 6' 3", those two inches make a difference if both were strictly pocket passers, but Chang is/was much more mobile than CB.

Also it doesn't matter where someone is slated to go in a mock draft, it's where they actually go that matters. Talking heads do mock drafts, guys on the Internet do mock drafts, NFL personnel folks actually draft. 31 other teams didn't see fit to take Brennan ahead of where he went. So 31 other sets of NFL personnel folks didn't see too much in him either. The WCO is not a fit for a QB with a poor release, below-average to weak NFL arm, that appears to makes some poor decisions on the NFL level.

He may not be the long-term answer for us at QB, but then again, he may be. Campbell has already proved that he isnt.

So Campbell improving yearly and increasing his performance from '07 to '08 with an inferior OL "proves" he isn't the guy for our system. The jury may still be out but the indicators appear to be that JC will be a solid, but not superstar, NFL QB.

They are general statements yes, but no one who watched him play can disagree with these statements unless they want to argue just for the sake of arguing.

I disagree with your statements because IMO they're wrong and you have no evidence or stats to show you're right. My stats (improved QB rating, only 6 INTs, 62% completions) favor my position over yours. I watched JC play and I have a completely different impression than you. You are taking the typical fan route, something's wrong, blame the QB. Maybe the protection broke down, maybe the sub 5'10" receivers weren't open, maybe JC's been coached to not make an overly aggressive play resulting in a turn-over. If you believe Jim Zorn is such a great QB evaluator that he "saw something" in CB, doesn't it make sense that if JC was "locking on" to receivers and was a "slow decision maker" that Zorn would've mentioned this (he is pretty forthcoming) or he would've went to Collins, or the Skins would be actively shopping JC for picks?

I don't remember seeing too many on this site making the comments about "slow decision making" & "locking on" when the Skins were 6-2.

Campbell never had time to develop in that system - but he was a much better fit for it.

In the Coryell / Gibbs type system you must be an accurate downfield passer, from what we have seen out of JC, that isn't his strong-suit.

[dmek25]

no way he comes here. Campbell is going to be the starter for at least the 2009-10 season. Leftwich could end up starting for Detroit

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I don't think too many people are selling Brennan short. Brennan=Timmy Chang isn't very productive, but what's Brennan's ultimate hope? That he develops into a bona fide NFL Starter, someone like Jason Campbell or Byron Leftwich, and then people don't cast him aside for stupid reasons (like the ones that dropped him in the draft, if the scouts were wrong)?

I think he's more than capable of being our No. 2 guy, but I wouldn't bet a season on his ability to play in the NFL. Too much risk for the potential reward (an extra second round pick in this case).

I would never say start Brennan NEXT season. But given a couple of years, it is possible he could turn out to be a very good QB. I don't know how anyone could say with any certainty he won't.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

No one with any credibility was saying anything about the Zorn hire outside of "well, they ran a solid process, so we'll see if they were right".

Do you read JLC's blog? He quoted multiple leage executives (unnamed, of course) who criticized Zorns hire - both because no one else thought Zorn could be an OC, let alone HC, but also because of Campbells was essentially the opposite of what you look for in a WCO QB.

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Now, if I go out on a limb and pretend you are right: If we find someone willing to deal a 2nd rounder for Campbell, that's a pretty good indication that we missed something in his valuation, right? Matt Schaub was worth two second rounders, and that was a buyers market based mostly on his prospects, not his production.

If we shop Campbell, how are other teams supposed to value him? We don't have a QB on our roster who can handle the position currently, so we would be right back in the free agent market (Where Leftwich is as good a solution as any). If it's a sellers market, and no buyers are willing to throw in more than a second rounder, I'd tell them to get lost.

I actually think we could get more than a 2nd rounder, but in the end, i would take a 2nd if thats all i could get. If another team refused to offer atleast a 2nd rounder, i'd also tell them to get lost.

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The undertone to your argument is that Campbell's eventual failure in Zorn's offense is inevitable, but you haven't defended that with anything but hearsay and speculation. Lots of people on this fourm (myself included) do disagree with the premise that you have presented, citing measurable evidence such as improved QB rating and pass efficiency in 2008. While it's theoretically possible that you are right, the "lots of people will disagree with me" angle just isn't all that convincing.

I dont know how either of us can accurately predict whether Campbell will ultimately succeed in the WCO or not and back up our prediction with cold-hard facts. No one can predict the future. It all depends on what "hearsay and speculation" we chose to accept and base our belief on. Like you, i'm willing to say its possible i'm completely wrong about this: Theres a chance Campbell will surprise me here. But when i think about it, theres a FAR greater chance Campbell will fail than that he will succeed. He's too tall, too slow, too indecisive, and too innaccurate on his short throws. (i'll give up the stare down argument because i know it theres no way to prove his percentage of stare-downs vs other QBs). He was drafted by Joe Gibbs to run the EXACT opposite style of offense that we are running now. The WCO doesnt take advantage of his strengths (primarily his preference to longer step drops, big arm, and pretty accurate deep ball), while exaggerating all his weaknesses (i wont bore you by reiterating them). Campbell has improved in some areas - yes (most noteably not fumbling); but his underlying flaws remain.

At some point you have to cut your losses and move on. Im ready to do that now. The bears, Vikings, and Titans are perfect fits for Campbell and they all need franchise QBs. It seems the time is right for us to move him, in my opinion.

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Your proposal is another 2nd round pick in trade for a ton of unnecessary offensive turnover, at the most fundamental positions on the team plus tons of unquantifiable scouting uncertainties that come with the change. Is it worth it? Maybe, but it seems like a lot of accounting work just to prove we might be able to break even.

------------

P.S. Past work I've done on this fourm and on my blog has estimated (roughly) that the average expectation for a 2nd round pick is somewhere between 2-3 wins (over replacement) over the life of a rookie contract. That's roughly Campbell's 2008 value alone, depending on whose metrics you deal with.

While a rough analysis is certainly not a be all end all, it's a tough, tough mountain to climb to prove that making Byron Leftwich the Skins starting QB right now is the best move for the Washington Redskins.[/QUOTE]

If we could get more for campbell, i would be happy. As i stated earlier, I dont think leftwich is the best move for the skins, but I think hes a better move for us than sticking with campbell. In the end, I dont think leftwich would be any worse, and trading Campbell could yield us much needed draft picks, which we could use to address our lines. The more picks we have, the more line positions we can address, the sooner we can get this franchise back on track.

[Eknox]

Originally Posted by Trample the Elderly

I'm fine with rebuilding. If we lose all but two games (Dallas) next year and get a high draft pick then I could stomach the pain.

Gotta love it....how bout them Cowgirls!!!

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

I would never say start Brennan NEXT season. But given a couple of years, it is possible he could turn out to be a very good QB. I don't know how anyone could say with any certainty he won't.

I think he could be a pretty good NFL QB, but there's not the known quantity factor that you get in the high round draft picks. It's more than possible that the scouts were simply right on Brennan, that he's a guy you never want to see the field. Optimistically, I think he'll probably start somewhere in the NFL someday. Probably not here though.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

A little clip on Brennan from the draft last year. Kiper and co. make the same Brennan / Chang comparison. I agree 100% with Jaws, who is a very good analyst, especially on QBs......as we digress into yet another CB discussion.....can the guy at least win or start a game before he is considered to be "the future"????

YouTube - Colt Brennan Drafted by Washington (1...

YouTube - Colt Brennan Drafted by Washington (2...

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

Madden's just hyping a pre-season game, Clinton Portis has zero credibility in evaluating a QB prospect, Zorn used a 6th round pick on a project QB. Didn't Gibbs take Jordan Palmer with a 5th, where is Palmer now.

Didn't Pioli take Brady with a 6th? Where is Brady now?!! Sorry, just wanted to get that out there before it was inevitably brought up. Anyhow, I must admit that Colt has grown on me (maybe because his ugly release reminds me of one of my favorite QBS, Rernie Kosar), though I don't think he's quite ready. I think, from all I've seen and discussed with others, he does have potential to be a pretty good NFL QB.

I think it's a bit unfair to just compare him to Chang simply because they went to the same school. It's like comparing Cushing to Sartz or Peyton Manning to Tee Martin (not exactly, I know).

All kidding aside, Colt is solid with (wait for it Dirtbag) Upside. Still, the focus should be on Campbell who is, and probably always will be, a better NFL QB.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

If we could get more for campbell, i would be happy. As i stated earlier, I dont think leftwich is the best move for the skins, but I think hes a better move for us than sticking with campbell. In the end, I dont think leftwich would be any worse, and trading Campbell could yield us much needed draft picks, which we could use to address our lines. The more picks we have, the more line positions we can address, the sooner we can get this franchise back on track.

It's also a very, very rough analysis to assume that Leftwich and Campbell are equals, and I've been okay with that assumption, but I think I should clear up that we're talking about a 27 year old vs. a 29 year old, which is a significant difference in terms of QB play. That's a guy with his best years ahead of him vs a guy already in his prime basically.

Then there's the point that you can't really invest massive millions into Leftwich because of injury concerns, but you can in Campbell because he's got a signifcantly nicer injury history.

Byron Leftwich Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Jason Campbell Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

I think we are in agreement though that a Leftwich-caliber QB is the best the FA market will offer in any given year.

In a vacuum, it's probably close enough to justify the proposal, but taken outside of the vacuum, Campbell is simply more promising at this point than Leftwich. And I like em both. But Leftwich's development has been screwed up by poor judgements to the point where he's someone's QB of the now, and he's no one's QB of the future. When he got cut from Jacksonville, he was still a promising if flawed prospect. Sort of like Campbell would be if we cut him outright today (but significantly less flawed).

So, that's the other side of this equation. I agree that this team needs draft picks, but this is a pretty significant cost, trading in your franchise QB for a similiar QB already at his potential. I know you don't see Campbell like I do and that's not going to change, but your position neccessarily requires an inherent (and arguably unsupported) lack of faith in Jason Campbell. Without that, it simply doesn't make sense to the rest of us.

JLC also thinks Campbell is the answer at QB, as long as we're talking about his blog.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

I think it's a bit unfair to just compare him to Chang simply because they went to the same school. It's like comparing Cushing to Sartz or Peyton Manning to Tee Martin (not exactly, I know).

I'm comparing him to Chang because they are (IMO) both system QBs with poor fundamentals who don't have NFL level arms or skills.

Still, the focus should be on Campbell who is, and probably always will be, a better NFL QB.

Agree 1000%. Getting rid of Campbell and bringing in Leftwich as a stop-gap, with the thought that Brennan will be "the man" would be extremely foolish and set the Skins back a minimum of 3-4 years. If by some miracle, Brennan develops and due to injury or whatever gets his chance (ala Brady) he's costing next to nothing and we won't have to pay him a large contract until he's brought a significant amount of wins to DC.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

But when i think about it, theres a FAR greater chance Campbell will fail than that he will succeed. He's too tall, too slow, too indecisive, and too innaccurate on his short throws. (i'll give up the stare down argument because i know it theres no way to prove his percentage of stare-downs vs other QBs).

See, I found something in this part that may give me some insight into why you don't think Campbell will work. You said he was "too tall", and maybe I'm reading way to far into this, but I don't know of any QB who has failed because of a surplus of height.

Perhaps the fallacy here is that Campbell doesn't look the part of a West Coast QB, but I don't believe there's a specific skill set that favors a west coast player over a non west coast player.

Moreover, I think you are just reading too much into what the WCO really is. It's a buzzword. I'm not going to base any of my opinions off the term because it doesn't carry any meaning to me. It represents a passing philosophy, where the coach claims to value high percentage passing over a vertical attack, but you are still going to see a steady diet of both.

I would agree with your criticism of Campbell's inaccuracies on shorter passes, argubly more critical to the Zorn offense than others, but a college QB by the name of Brady Quinn came out with the same issue after putting together the most impressive passing resume in the history of his school in an offense that was considered to be "pure" west cost. My point is, short range inaccuracies are not a dehabilitating weakness for a quarterback. They are still going to complete 75% of passes in the 0-5 yd range, even with the occasional ugly ball. That weakness will not make or break a QB.

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think he could be a pretty good NFL QB, but there's not the known quantity factor that you get in the high round draft picks. It's more than possible that the scouts were simply right on Brennan, that he's a guy you never want to see the field. Optimistically, I think he'll probably start somewhere in the NFL someday. Probably not here though.

I don't know if Brennan will ever be what some here hope for, but I'm not willing to put a ceiling on his career just yet as some seem to want to. I've always backed Campbell but that does not take away from Colt IMO. I guess I don't see it as a battle between Jason and Colt where one has to be bad and one good. I think Colt has potential just as Zorn must have. There have been so many disappointments at QB with high draft picks, Leaf..Alex Smith..Shuler...Couch..Rick whatever his name is from ND a few years back..Carr, etc. the list goes on and on. And yet some QB's whose stock dropped for some reason, Marino..Aaron Rodgers are two that come to mind right away, went on to play pretty well. So I'm not completely sold on what the scouts say. At least I don't take it for gospel. We all make mistakes. I hope Colt does well and I think he also has some qualities that may serve him well. And this in no way has anything to do with Jason who I expect to have a very good year next season.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

There have been so many disappointments at QB with high draft picks, Leaf..Alex Smith..Shuler...Couch..Rick whatever his name is from ND a few years back..Carr, etc. the list goes on and on.

Right, but those guys get onto the field immediately because of the monetary investment, and they are a known quantity very early.

We already know Jason Campbell is an NFL competent starter. We had a good idea of that when he was drafted. We didn't and don't have the same idea about Brennan, although all the evidence since the draft surrounding him has been positive.

If Brennan amounts to nothing, we can't throw him in with the Mirer's, Smiths' and Leaf's of the world. He would be more like the Spergon Wynn of 2008.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

He's too tall, too slow, too indecisive, and too innaccurate on his short throws.

JC 6' 5", Matt Hasselbeck 6' 4". I was always under the impression that a taller QB can see over the lines and find passing lanes easier than a shorter QB.
Jason Campbell had 258 yds rushing and 5.5 yds/carry. Better than Cutler, Garcia, McNabb, T. Jackson. His Yds/carry was better than Matt Cassel & David Garrard. The too slow argument doesn't hold water.
We've gone over the other two arguments already.

The WCO doesnt take advantage of his strengths (primarily his preference to longer step drops, big arm, and pretty accurate deep ball)

JC's deep ball isn't particularly accurate. He was ranked 27th in the NFL in passes over 40 yards.

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Right, but those guys get onto the field immediately because of the monetary investment, and they are a known quantity very early.

We already know Jason Campbell is an NFL competent starter. We had a good idea of that when he was drafted. We didn't and don't have the same idea about Brennan, although all the evidence since the draft surrounding him has been positive.

If Brennan amounts to nothing, we can't throw him in with the Mirer's, Smiths' and Leaf's of the world. He would be more like the Spergon Wynn of 2008.

Now there's a guy with potential!