Don's Crystal Ball 2010 Week 4 Picks

[D'BOYZ]

THE DON'S
Crystal Ball

2010 SEASON
WEEK 4 PICKS

By DonCanabis/TheDon
Analyst/Godfather

The First week of bye has arrived and with that, adjustments have to be made every week. The upset and underdog tendencies that I’ve been telling you guys keep coming last week there were 8 upset and 3 games where teams didn’t cover the spread so keep rooting for the underdog and you’ll make some money.

Quick Hits

• With three weeks on the books, teams now have enough tape to plan against opponents this is the time when contenders start to separate themselves from pretenders.
• Look for the little things this week, because it can make the difference, weather, home field, rivalry, travel distance, injuries and situation.
• Don’t care about records for making your picks look at how teams have played in their wins and losses to have a clearer prediction. Take last Monday night game even with Chicago’s win over Green Bay; it was more of the Packers mistake with penalties that lost the game than what the Bears showed.
• Team are having trouble covering the big spreads last week of the 5 teams that covered the spread only 1 beat a line bigger than 10 points.
• In today’s NFL, special teams play a huge factor in the outcome of a game; good field position, clutch kickers; great returners can change the result. Special teams played a huge role in the Arizona, Seattle, Chicago and Atlanta’s victories either for or against the other team.
• I continue with a great record against the spread 30-18 63%, last week my over/under picks it’s what let me down, had a 4-12 record, never had I done so badly.
• I’ve been on the mark with my Upsets of the Week picks, with a 4-1 record after 3 weeks my predictions are looking good.
• The Goat of the Week Garrett Hartley…. After becoming the town hero for putting The Saints in the Super Bowl and kicking the onside kick that turn the game around, Hartley has and chocked since week 1 missed easy kicks that could had cost New Orleans the victory and Sunday it finally did… It’s not only because he’s missing the kicks that he’s the goat is how he’s missing them I tell you a slice golf swing looks way better that what this kid is hitting.

On to the games

New York Jets at Buffalo 5.5 Ovr/Und 37
C.J Spiller finally showed his impact in the game last week in special teams and receiver but still can show it on the backfield. Buffalo moved the ball and presented some troubles against a young New England defense don’t believe they can do the same against the Jets Defense. Sanchez is playing really good, which is a huge surprise and some players of the Bills defense will be out this week. The Weather can be a factor on this one, rain and high winds are expected for this game so take he under.

Straight: NYJ
Spread: NYJ
Ovr/Und: Und

Seattle at St. Louis 1 Ovr/Und 38.5


Last week both team pulled huge upsets; like I said on last week’s column I expected Seattle to present some trouble to San Diego and said that they could pull the upset, the Ram’s completely surprised me. St. Louis is playing really good defense and isn’t a pushover any more, that doesn’t mean they’ll win many games but they will present trouble to the opposition.

Straight: Sea
Spread: Sea
Ovr/Und: OVR

San Francisco at Atlanta -7 Ovr/Und 42
This one completely feels like a trap game. San Francisco hasn’t played well and is in desperation mode, Atlanta is coming from a huge but emotionally drained victory over the champions so this game might give them more problems. Alex Smith is changing OC for the 100th time in his career I think he’s used to the changes by now. Take the points Mike will have his team motivated for this game
Straight: Atl
Spread: SF
Ovr/Und: Und

Detroit at Green Bay -14.5 Ovr/Und 45.5
Last Week I didn’t thought the Lions could lose to a Vikings team that isn’t playing its best football by 11 points they lost by 14. This week they have a 15 point line am I to crazy to still believe it’s too high and they won’t lose by that much? Maybe but I see a team that can score points put pressure and create turnovers, my biggest worry is Jahvid Best injury if the Lions lose their big play ability they don’t stand a chance.
Straight: GB
Spread: Det
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Cincinnati at Cleveland 3 Ovr/Und 37


Is starting to look that Carson Palmer will never be the QB he was 5 years ago and with that my Super Bowl prediction is quickly fading. Both teams are playing good defense so expect a close match with low scoring. The Bengals have let easy wins go before so an upset wouldn’t surprise me.

Straight: Cin
Spread: Cin
Ovr/Und: Und

Denver at Tennessee -6.5 Ovr/Und 42
UPSET OF THE WEEK

Despite last week’s loss Denver is playing good football, they’re being able to move the ball and playing solid defense if they can minimize the mistake they can pull this upset. Both teams match up pretty well, and we all know that the key to beating the Titans is stopping CJ we all know that’s easier said than done.

Straight: Den
Spread: Den
Ovr/Und: Und

Carolina at New Orleans -13.5 Ovr/Und 44.5
Carolina hasn’t showed me anything, the line looks too big for how the Saints have been playing, but just like Vegas I expect last week loss to be New Orleans wakeup call and show that high scoring offense of last year.

Straight:NO
Spread:NO
Ovr/Und:OVR

Baltimore at Pittsburgh -1.5 Ovr/Und 34.5

We all expect smash mouth football, hard hitting old style of football for this game; this is one of the rivalries that never get dull and we love it. The Ray Rice injury can be a huge factor but still I believe that even if this isn’t your old Baltimore defense it will be too much for any of the 11 Steelers QB’s to handle.

Straight: Bal
Spread: Bal
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Houston at Oakland 3 Ovr/Und 43.5
Even without A. Johnson Houston have too many weapons for Oakland to handle. Last week loss will help the Texans focus and be on the right path for their first playoffs in franchise history.

Straight:Hou
Spread: Hou
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Indianapolis at Jacksonville 7.5 Ovr/Und 46.5
When your team picks up Trent Edwards from waivers you know things aren’t looking too good. The Jaguars are having trouble in all sides of the field expect more of the same this week.

Straight: Ind
Spread: Ind
Ovr/Und: Und

Washington at Philadelphia -6 Ovr/Und 43.5


This was going to be my Upset of the week, based on how Favre played last year against his old team, emotion and having something to prove can be the motivation player needs to play at another level. But two things made me rethink this. First the way both teams have been playing, last loss against the Rams showed me that Washington is still a work in progress and what we all know this is a team with not too many weapons playing in a new system with a new QB, this team needs time. The second thing was the Oakland and Tampa Bay Super Bowl where Grouden knew Gannon so well, what he did good and what he hated that he used it to make the number 1 offense look like fools. Reid coached McNabb for 11 years he knows everything about him. This will be a very emotional game and that’s why I’m splitting this pick

Straight: Phi
Spread: Was
Ovr/Und: Und

Arizona at San Diego -8 Ovr/Und 46


San Diego has been up and down, this week it’s time to be up again. Take the line but go under I don’t feel Arizona will do much to help cover the Over.
.
Straight: SD
Spread: SD
Ovr/Und: Und

Chicago at New York : -4 Ovr/Und 44.5


New York is a complete mess they can’t stop anybody and their line can’t cover they’re having a complete meltdown but somehow in those time is when teams find the way to bounce back. Chicago has won ugly but they have won still, somehow they find ways to not get hurt much and change the way they’re playing midway in the game and turn the match. I’ll give NY the nod here based on desperation and playing at home, but still I believe it will be a close game.

Straight:NYG
Spread:Chi
Ovr/Und: Ovr

New England at Miami : -1 Ovr/Und 45.5
New England isn’t what it used to their defense has many problems and their offense isn’t as consistent Miami needs to win at home and they have the defense to put pressure on Brady and still cover their playmakers 1-1. Take the home team.

Straight: Mia
Spread:Mia
Ovr/Und: Und


The Hot Picks
Record 7-11 39%
New York Jets (league)
Seattle (league)
Houston (league)
Indianapolis
Denver
Cincinnati

Don’s Prediction League Leaders

1. MlmPetert 88 -56 61% [thewarpath.net]
2. Sk8termom 85-59 59% [steeleraddicts.com]
3. BnGBleeder 84-60 58% [steeleraddicts.com]
4. TheDon 84-60 58%

[GTripp0012]

I think I like that Denver over Tennessee pick. I also like Cleveland over Cincinnati (I just don't see how Cinci can pull this one out), and Oakland over a floundering Houston team, as far as upsets go.

I don't bet, so whatever.

[skinsfan69]

Not quite sure how you could have SF covering. They've been blown out both road games. Plus this is their 2nd straight road game and this one is cross country. I have the Atl. money line. Can't see how SF can win this game.

Oak should be 2-1. W/out Johnson I would not be surprised if Oakland wins. Louis Murphy is an upcoming stud.

[GusFrerotte]

I concur about the ATL San Fran game. If Mike will have them ready today, why wouldn't they have been ready for weeks 1-3? The 49ers just plain suck and the Falcons are hitting it on all cylinders. As for the Skins Eagles, yeah I hope it is close, but the scenario is much like ATL and San Fran. One team sucks, the other one is in high gear. Emotion in football can be a great thing, but Favre had a great team around him last season, while Donovan doesn't in 2010. Also, you don't think Vick isn't jacked up for this? He can prove to everyone that he desrves to be the starter in Philly!! The Eagles cover the spread. I also don't see how you think the Ravens and Steelers are going to cover the over/under. Teams that like to grind it out on the ground, coupled with stellar D's isn't going to give you a game with a ton of scoring.

[Mechanix544]

actually pretty solid picks this week.

[D'BOYZ]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think I like that Denver over Tennessee pick. I also like Cleveland over Cincinnati (I just don't see how Cinci can pull this one out), and Oakland over a floundering Houston team, as far as upsets go.

I don't bet, so whatever.

you went 2-1 with your upsets pretty good... Add Was over Philly that's 3-1

[D'BOYZ]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Not quite sure how you could have SF covering. They've been blown out both road games. Plus this is their 2nd straight road game and this one is cross country. I have the Atl. money line. Can't see how SF can win this game.

Oak should be 2-1. W/out Johnson I would not be surprised if Oakland wins. Louis Murphy is an upcoming stud.

Sorry man seems you lost bot bets

[D'BOYZ]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

I concur about the ATL San Fran game. If Mike will have them ready today, why wouldn't they have been ready for weeks 1-3? The 49ers just plain suck and the Falcons are hitting it on all cylinders. As for the Skins Eagles, yeah I hope it is close, but the scenario is much like ATL and San Fran. One team sucks, the other one is in high gear. Emotion in football can be a great thing, but Favre had a great team around him last season, while Donovan doesn't in 2010. Also, you don't think Vick isn't jacked up for this? He can prove to everyone that he desrves to be the starter in Philly!! The Eagles cover the spread. I also don't see how you think the Ravens and Steelers are going to cover the over/under. Teams that like to grind it out on the ground, coupled with stellar D's isn't going to give you a game with a ton of scoring.

Well was right in the games, and at the end motivation from mcnabb to the team made them step up and it didn't hurt that they took Vick out but your team was controling the game before that.

With the Bal game it came down to a really small line on the Ovr/und 1 int or punt return for TD and that line gets beat easy so I went with the probability of that happenning

[Monkeydad]

Just give up, man. I hope no one is using your "expertise" with real dollars on the line.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by D'BOYZ

Sorry man seems you lost bot bets

I took the Atl money and won. I don't bet spreads anymore.