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Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

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Old 05-18-2015, 05:48 PM   #1
30gut
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Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

Jay Gruden Pass ratio: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-play-pct
Bengals
2013-57
2012-58
2011-56

Washington
2014-60% pass (#15 in the NFL)

Just for frame of reference:

Seattle: 49% pass (#31 in the NFL)
San Fran:53% pass (#26 in the NFL)
Green Bay: 56% pass (#23 in the NFL)

We've all heard the soundbites of McCloughan of his vision for the offense which he seems to bring with him from Seattle and San Fran:

“We have a similar philosophy about big guys, smart guys, tough guys. We want to be able to run the ball, be able to pound the ball and get that D-line to want to quit and understand that when you play the Washington Redskins, we’ll come at you no matter what.”

But for me when I look at Scott's vision it doesn't seem to mesh with what we know of Jay's history and tendencies. I've posted Jay play calling/game plan tendencies in regards to pass/run ratio above. Jay has been a pass focused OC and even moreso as a HC. Marvin Lewis, a decidedly defensive oriented HC was able to limit Jay's pass focus to ~57%. (in his absence they've dropped to 52% pass) But last year when Jay had total control his pass % jumped up to 60%.

I see 2 distinct offensive philosophies when I look at Jay and Scott and I wonder whether or not Jay will follow Scott's lead or will Jay maintain his offensive philosophy/tendencies?

Enough of the preamble....do you think Jay's pass ratio will drop to reflect a shift to being more run focused? And do you want it to?

(was gonna make a poll but didn't see the poll option)
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Old 05-18-2015, 06:30 PM   #2
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

He did say there would be some re working of the offense, I'm hoping it includes running the ball more often and MUCH more creatively ... I was oft very tired of seeing the same stretch run 10 times a game... So, honestly I hope we change the run scheme up a bit... And run it more, if it doesn't happen? Get ready for semi similar results on that side of the ball.
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Old 05-18-2015, 07:00 PM   #3
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

I personally think defense has a say in those ratios. San fran and Seattle have defenses that dont need an offense to score 30 points to win a game (they also have/had top running backs. Seattle having the best in the business). The GB one does surprise me though. Maybe defenses just concentrate to much on Aaron Rodgers and they are smart enough to see it. Granted Lacy is starting to come into his own. If we show defensive improvement, I think that number drops. If our defense is still bad, that number stays high.
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Old 05-18-2015, 07:09 PM   #4
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

I think we'll see just how far SM's influence goes by how Jay calls plays this year.
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Old 05-18-2015, 08:10 PM   #5
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

Last season we had a weak offensive line and even worse defense. I know nobody is implying that if we just magically changed our play calling we would have been better. But to artificially set a % of run to pass and win, you have to have start with a good talented team that is not playing from behind all the time.
When it comes to play calling % run to pass, I would rather do what works and not be predictable. To have the skill/flexibility to (hypothetically) run 60% one game and come right back the next game and pass 60% and win. Just win, be dynamic and not be predicable. i would like that.
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Old 05-18-2015, 09:32 PM   #6
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

Jay's hiring of Callahan says a lot in my opinion. That points to a desire to get more physical and run more effectively, which Jay talked about last year even before McCloughan was hired.

I think a big part of the reason for passing so much was the lack of success running on first down. Our first-down-YPC average was 5.43, 20th in the league. I bet Gruden gets the fuzzies thinking about adding a big mauler in Scherff and a nasty versatile runner in Jones to his offense.
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Old 05-18-2015, 09:33 PM   #7
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

I'd love to be a 50-50 offense but I would bet on running the ball much more
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Old 05-18-2015, 09:42 PM   #8
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

I think it will be a......real good plan on J's part to be straight up and on board with SM....
He doesn't need any..competition for the HC position
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Old 05-19-2015, 12:23 AM   #9
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyk View Post
I think we'll see just how far SM's influence goes by how Jay calls plays this year.

Why should play calling or offense be dictated by the GM? If this is the case, maybe he needs to pick his own coach? (which I'm fine with)




That said, I think Jay is going to run a lot more this year. I think Jay (and Scott) both know that they can't rely on any of the QBs on the roster and that a solid OL and run game will carry the team a long way.
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Old 05-19-2015, 06:13 AM   #10
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NC_Skins View Post
Why should play calling or offense be dictated by the GM? If this is the case, maybe he needs to pick his own coach? (which I'm fine with)




That said, I think Jay is going to run a lot more this year. I think Jay (and Scott) both know that they can't rely on any of the QBs on the roster and that a solid OL and run game will carry the team a long way.
Based on the type of talent SM is adding, Gruden better use it accordingly is all. If the offensive side of the ball is shaping up to be a running team, he sure as hell better run it. It's not about SM dictating anything, I just want to see how Gruden adjusts.
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Old 05-19-2015, 08:18 AM   #11
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

I would think it should be a gradual trend towards running more over the next two or three years.

Game situation is the majority of what causes our pass percentages. Over time, a better defense, better special teams and better execution on the offense (line and QB) will allow us to be more run heavy.

Not sure it will manifest completly this year...would be nice though.
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Old 05-19-2015, 08:53 AM   #12
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyk View Post
Based on the type of talent SM is adding, Gruden better use it accordingly is all. If the offensive side of the ball is shaping up to be a running team, he sure as hell better run it. It's not about SM dictating anything, I just want to see how Gruden adjusts.
yup...if not, lets welcome Bill Calahan or Darrell Bevell as your new Redskins HC.
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Old 05-19-2015, 01:22 PM   #13
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

It has already been alluded to here in this thread, but since run/pass ratio is one of the most poorly understood metrics in football and one of the most poorly-reported by the media, I think it has to be said very clearly:

Run/pass balance is not often the CAUSE of losing, it is most often a RESULT of losing.

If you come out in the first half and average 2.0 yards per carry behind an offensive line that isn't getting any movement, and your defense lets up two TDs, then you'd be insane to keep trying the exact same thing. Game situation and in-game adjustments may dictate that you have to throw more often.

Some might say well you shouldn't abandon the run because it wears down the defense and gives you an advantage in the 4th quarter. That's a luxury you can afford only if you're leading or within one score.

The way to bring run/pass ratio into balance isn't to call more running plays, it's to... run the ball better.

A more effective offensive line is what makes that possible. If we see the Redskins blocking effectively early in games and still get away from the run, then Jay should be fired. But I highly doubt he'll do that because while I don't think he's anything special as a coach, he's not an idiot. If our offensive line moves (including Bill Callahan) are effective, then we should see the run pass balance improve. That wouldn't be an indicator that Jay's playcalling won us any games.

I view our run/pass ratio this year to be an indicator of how effective our offensive line is. That's equally on McCloughan and Gruden - McCloughan to the extent he picked the players, and Gruden to the extent he and Callahan coached them.
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Old 05-19-2015, 04:55 PM   #14
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Meks View Post
He did say there would be some re working of the offense...
He being Jay?

I recall Bruce Allen hinting here: Bruce Allen says changes coming to Washington Redskins' offense - Washington Redskins Blog - ESPN that there would be changes to the offense but I don't recall hearing anything like that come from Jay. And on the whole I don't put a lot credit into 'soundbite' Bruce who like his father, is a master of not giving up any real information. (except Bruce is way smooth about it) So I tend not to put much stock in those hints from Bruce. Now if Jay, the HC/playcaller, hinted at changes that would be meaningful to me.

I would be interested to know/read what Jay said I may have missed it because I was out of the media loop for a week around the draft time.
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Old 05-19-2015, 05:36 PM   #15
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Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

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Originally Posted by Skinzman View Post
I personally think defense has a say in those ratios. San fran and Seattle have defenses that dont need an offense to score 30 points to win a game (they also have/had top running backs. Seattle having the best in the business). The GB one does surprise me though. Maybe defenses just concentrate to much on Aaron Rodgers and they are smart enough to see it. Granted Lacy is starting to come into his own. If we show defensive improvement, I think that number drops. If our defense is still bad, that number stays high.
I agree that no doubt quality of defense (and special teams) plays a role in pass/run ratios. I would tend to agree that pass/run ratio are not the end all/be all indicator of HC/playcaller philosophy.

But, I would also argue that external factors like defense/special teams doesn't have an overriding impact on the playcaller/HC preference when it comes to pass/run ratios.

An easy example for me is Mike Shanahan. I was (don't stone me) a huge fan of Mike Shanahan's Denver WCO and during his tenure in Denver, through all manner or defenses and QBs and RBs his pass/run ratio was: 48 run / 52 pass. Mike Shanahan is a run oriented coach.

Another example, speaking of defense, is Jay Gruden/Cinci def. I posted Jay's/Cinci's pass/run ratio's early but i'll post them below with defense ranking.
2014 w/o Jay: 52% pass--def rank 12th

2013 w/Jay: 57% pass--def rank 5th
2012 w/Jay: 58% pass--def rank 8th
2011 w/Jay: 56% pass--def rank 9th

So, in 2014 the Bengals defense was ranked 12th, their worst in 4 seasons, but had a lower pass ratio then the 3 previous seasons with better defenses. They actually ran the ball more in 2014 even though their defense was the worse.

Or you could take a look at the Jets 25.1 PPG/24th ranked def vs Tampa 25.6 PPG/ 25th ranked def. Their defensive rankings are almost the same yet the there was a huge disparity in their the pass % the Jets were 52% pass the Bucs were 62% pass.

But an even more nuanced (although I don't 100% agree with their splits for 'expected' pass situations) comes from PFF. They have a great stat which I hope they repeat for this year on situational playcall expectations:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...-play-calling/

Agree or disagree it makes an interesting read for the football nerds. But they did there fancy stats thing for pass ratio for 2013 and even by their metrics Cinci/Jay came out pass focused not to an extreme level like Dallas but still pass focused. Now, Dallas is interesting because although they were extremely pass focused in 2013 there was a paradigm shift we all witnessed this year and it will be interesting to see where there values are this year. But even looking at the raw numbers Dallas went from 65% pass in 2013 to 50% pass in 2014. This shift in philosophy also had complementary effect on their time of possession and defense which was terrible in 2013 and with arguably even less talent in 2014(no ware/hatcher) the defense improved.

I say all this to say that playcaller/HC preference has a strong impact on pass/run ratio outcomes. I am not making a value judgement as to which style is better. Both pass heavy and run heavy can effective provided the offenses are efficient and score points. All I'm saying right now is that pass/run ratio outcomes are of course impacted situationally by defense and special teams but imo to deny the role playercaller/HC volition in the outcomes would be inaccurate assumption.
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