Commanders Post at The Warpath  

Home | Forums | Donate | Shop




Go Back   Commanders Post at The Warpath > Fantasy Football Forums > Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Discuss all fantasy football related matters here


Fantasy Tips

Fantasy Football


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-25-2010, 09:12 AM   #31
Slingin Sammy 33
Playmaker
 
Slingin Sammy 33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Virginia Beach
Posts: 4,347
Re: Fantasy Tips

Quote:
Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule View Post
What do you do about Sidney Rice? This is my first year also, and I drafted him - had totally missed the injury stuff. So now do I waive him, or just hold him on the bench and hope?
Pick up Bernard Berrian if he's available. Or, see if you can sucker someone into a trade.
__________________
"I would bet.....(if), an angel fairy came down and said, '[You can have anything] in the world you would like to own,' I wouldn't be surprised if you said a football club and particularly the Washington Redskins.'' — Jack Kent Cooke, 1996.
Slingin Sammy 33 is offline   Reply With Quote

Advertisements
Old 08-25-2010, 09:30 AM   #32
MonkFan4Life
The Starter
 
MonkFan4Life's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Age: 47
Posts: 1,851
Re: Fantasy Tips

Well since this is the Fantasy Thread I just had my draft Friday, I picked 6th and this is what I ended up with. We use IDP's by the way.

QB-Aaron Rogers
Carson Palmer
RB-Cedric Benson
Darren McFadden
Jerome Harrison
Cadillac Williams
WR-Greg Jennings
Eddie Royal
Mohammad Massaquoi
TE-Tony Gonzalez
Tony Scheffler
LB-Patrick Willis
Rolando McClain
Brian Orakpo
Nick Barnett
DL-Darnell Dockett
DB-Adrian Wilson
-Roman harper
Erik Coleman
K-Nate Kaeding

Now my WR game is some doo doo after Greg Jennings. I'm gonna grab Kenny Phillips, a D-Lineman from somewhere, and Marko Mitchell out of Free Agency today (starts at 12:00 pm) and I have some trades in the works already but we can't start trading til 12 anyway. What do you all think of my team. Who would you look to dump ? Where can I improve ?
__________________
Catch me on YouTube !

http://www.youtube.com/user/DowntimeRB?feature=mhw5

The "punishment" by the league : "It's like getting a ticket for going too fast on a road a week ago and they changed the speed limit today"
MonkFan4Life is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 10:13 AM   #33
Chico23231
Warpath Hall of Fame
 
Chico23231's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 34,374
Re: Fantasy Tips

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyk View Post
Really it all depends on how league's scoring is set up. You can't definitively say take a QB first, or take a RB first. And of course what slot you're picking in matters too. Not sure I would take someone like Brees with a really high first round pick. In most leagues he's going to be there in round 2, maybe even round 3. And if you're in a points per reception league, a RB that racks up a lot of catches is going to be a high priority.
It does, but most leagues now are 4 pts for throwing a TD, so at quarterback it groups them together easier. I feel also the first 2 rounds you gotta go with consistency, meaning I usually dont do 1 hit wonder picks or i rate players higher with longer track records than bust out players the previous year. Last year taking Matt Forte or Steve Slaton in the top ten was a pretty bad move.
__________________
My pronouns: King/Your ruler

He Gets Us
Chico23231 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 10:50 AM   #34
Schneed10
A Dude
 
Schneed10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Newtown Square, PA
Age: 45
Posts: 12,421
Re: Fantasy Tips

The value of any fantasy player can be defined as the value he offers over a replacement player. So if you have a 10 team league, and each team starts 1 QB, then the expected fantasy point production of the 11th best QB represents the replacement player.

I'm a data guy and a fairly big geek, so I went through and examined production for the past four years for NFL WRs, RBs, QBs, and TEs. If Brees and Rodgers perform like they did last year, and the replacement player is someone like David Garrard, then Brees and Rodgers are worth the 7th and 8th overall picks respectively. That's using a scoring system of 5 points per TD pass, -2 per INT, 1 point per 25 yards passing. If you can get one in the 2nd round you're pulling a huge profit.

There's no way Peyton Manning should be taken before either of them. He's a better QB, but not more prolific stat-wise.

Other guys I find to be major values given their expected draft position:

- Jermichael Finley - TE Packers; he basically put up 90 fantasy points (1 point per 10 yds rec, 6 per TD) in just 8 weeks starting. Rodgers is making huge strides with accuracy, and he's leaning heavily on Finley. He'll challenge Dallas Clark for top TE honors.

- Santana Moss; There were at least 5 or 6 occasions last year where Moss had burned the DBs badly on deep routes, but Campbell's ineptitude on deep balls failed him. I don't have enough fingers to count the times that Moss threw up his hands in exasperation because he was so open, but was just missed. The guy still gets open with the best of them, but between our line and JC's deep-ball problems, he was underutilized. If there's one thing McNabb can do, it's throw a deep ball. Moss will come back up to 8 TDs. He'll perform like a 4th round WR for a 6th round price.

- Clinton Portis; I just got him in the 8th round the other night. His average draft position at Yahoo is 91st overall. LJ looks like hell, Willie Parker is done. Portis is the only one who can block worth a crap, Shanahan will keep him on the field. He won't be dominant but he'll be a startable 2nd RB, and you can get him after you've filled your other roster spots.

- Jahvid Best - RB Lions; it sure looks like they're going to lean on him really heavily. Everyone knows about Ryan Matthews in SD, he's going in the low first, high second round. But Best can be had in the 3rd or 4th, and it's looking like he'll get just as many carries as Matthews.

- Arian Foster - RB Texans; Ben Tate is out for the year, and the coaches hate Steve Slaton (fumbles). Foster is bigger anyway, he's the natural choice for goalline carries. It's looking like he'll get the starting nod. You can probably get him in the 4th or 5th round. Good opportunity to pull a profit.
__________________
God made certain people to play football. He was one of them.
Schneed10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 10:52 AM   #35
Schneed10
A Dude
 
Schneed10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Newtown Square, PA
Age: 45
Posts: 12,421
Re: Fantasy Tips

Mike Williams - WR Tampa Bay

He's a rookie, but already looks like their best receiver. They've got to throw to somebody. Won't be a fantasy starter in all likelihood, but a great guy for depth who you can grab at the end of your draft.
__________________
God made certain people to play football. He was one of them.
Schneed10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 11:01 AM   #36
12thMan
MVP
 
12thMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: washington, D.C.
Posts: 11,460
Re: Fantasy Tips

So wait, I see that MonkFan drafted a few defensive players. I thought (by the way, I have the rules for my league tucked away, I just wanted to stop by Warpath for a primer) if you drafted a defense you had to draft an entire defense, not individual players?

Another question about drafting defensive players, do you draft guys who have the ability to score TD or produce sacks, which in turn gives you points? Is that the idea?
12thMan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 11:07 AM   #37
12thMan
MVP
 
12thMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: washington, D.C.
Posts: 11,460
Re: Fantasy Tips

Damn Schneed my head just exploded, but thanks for the analysis and break-down.


Interesting point about Manning too, because I know everyone will try to take him, AP or Chris Johnson with their first pick.

Seems like most here think Moss and Portis could be good picks in the right round(s).
12thMan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 11:17 AM   #38
GhettoDogAllStars
Playmaker
 
GhettoDogAllStars's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Denver
Age: 42
Posts: 2,762
Re: Fantasy Tips

Quote:
Originally Posted by Schneed10 View Post
The value of any fantasy player can be defined as the value he offers over a replacement player. So if you have a 10 team league, and each team starts 1 QB, then the expected fantasy point production of the 11th best QB represents the replacement player.

I'm a data guy and a fairly big geek, so I went through and examined production for the past four years for NFL WRs, RBs, QBs, and TEs. If Brees and Rodgers perform like they did last year, and the replacement player is someone like David Garrard, then Brees and Rodgers are worth the 7th and 8th overall picks respectively. That's using a scoring system of 5 points per TD pass, -2 per INT, 1 point per 25 yards passing. If you can get one in the 2nd round you're pulling a huge profit.

There's no way Peyton Manning should be taken before either of them. He's a better QB, but not more prolific stat-wise.

Other guys I find to be major values given their expected draft position:

- Jermichael Finley - TE Packers; he basically put up 90 fantasy points (1 point per 10 yds rec, 6 per TD) in just 8 weeks starting. Rodgers is making huge strides with accuracy, and he's leaning heavily on Finley. He'll challenge Dallas Clark for top TE honors.

- Santana Moss; There were at least 5 or 6 occasions last year where Moss had burned the DBs badly on deep routes, but Campbell's ineptitude on deep balls failed him. I don't have enough fingers to count the times that Moss threw up his hands in exasperation because he was so open, but was just missed. The guy still gets open with the best of them, but between our line and JC's deep-ball problems, he was underutilized. If there's one thing McNabb can do, it's throw a deep ball. Moss will come back up to 8 TDs. He'll perform like a 4th round WR for a 6th round price.

- Clinton Portis; I just got him in the 8th round the other night. His average draft position at Yahoo is 91st overall. LJ looks like hell, Willie Parker is done. Portis is the only one who can block worth a crap, Shanahan will keep him on the field. He won't be dominant but he'll be a startable 2nd RB, and you can get him after you've filled your other roster spots.

- Jahvid Best - RB Lions; it sure looks like they're going to lean on him really heavily. Everyone knows about Ryan Matthews in SD, he's going in the low first, high second round. But Best can be had in the 3rd or 4th, and it's looking like he'll get just as many carries as Matthews.

- Arian Foster - RB Texans; Ben Tate is out for the year, and the coaches hate Steve Slaton (fumbles). Foster is bigger anyway, he's the natural choice for goalline carries. It's looking like he'll get the starting nod. You can probably get him in the 4th or 5th round. Good opportunity to pull a profit.
You might like this:
Joe Bryant - Principles of VBD

"The value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position."

1. The object of the game is not to score a ton of points, but to outscore the opponent. You must fill a roster with a specified number of players at specified positions. The surest way to outscore your opponent is to build a team of players that outscore their peers. The players who most distance themselves from the other players at their respective positions are therefore the most valuable. Remember the 8 player draft example where I can't lose after drafting the 20 point WR.

2. Factors such as the specific number of teams, starting lineup requirements, frozen players, and scoring system for your league dramatically effect the values of each player. These factors can cause the same player in two different leagues to have dramatically different values.
__________________
To succeed in the world it is not enough to be stupid, you must also be well-mannered.
GhettoDogAllStars is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 11:25 AM   #39
MonkFan4Life
The Starter
 
MonkFan4Life's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Age: 47
Posts: 1,851
Re: Fantasy Tips

Quote:
Originally Posted by 12thMan View Post
So wait, I see that MonkFan drafted a few defensive players. I thought (by the way, I have the rules for my league tucked away, I just wanted to stop by Warpath for a primer) if you drafted a defense you had to draft an entire defense, not individual players?

Another question about drafting defensive players, do you draft guys who have the ability to score TD or produce sacks, which in turn gives you points? Is that the idea?
No you don't 12th. Only if your league uses Individual Defensive Players or IDP's. Generally you draft a Team Defense. Most likely you are using Team D's so you want to look for more prolific defenses. You want to make sure that you are getting points so whover get's a lot of turnovers, sacks, TD's. Check the scoring that your league is using and you can judge better off of that.
__________________
Catch me on YouTube !

http://www.youtube.com/user/DowntimeRB?feature=mhw5

The "punishment" by the league : "It's like getting a ticket for going too fast on a road a week ago and they changed the speed limit today"
MonkFan4Life is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 11:39 AM   #40
Schneed10
A Dude
 
Schneed10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Newtown Square, PA
Age: 45
Posts: 12,421
Re: Fantasy Tips

Quote:
Originally Posted by 12thMan View Post
Damn Schneed my head just exploded, but thanks for the analysis and break-down.


Interesting point about Manning too, because I know everyone will try to take him, AP or Chris Johnson with their first pick.

Seems like most here think Moss and Portis could be good picks in the right round(s).
In my opinion, everyone's top 3 should be the same:

1) Chris Johnson
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Maurice Jones-Drew

After that you can debate 4/5/6 between Ray Rice, Michael Turner, and Frank Gore.

7 & 8 should be Brees and Rodgers, but if you think your league is sleeping on their value then pass on them in the late first and try to get them in the high second round.

Then Andre Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, and Steven Jackson should be in the 9/10/11 conversation.
__________________
God made certain people to play football. He was one of them.
Schneed10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 11:40 AM   #41
Schneed10
A Dude
 
Schneed10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Newtown Square, PA
Age: 45
Posts: 12,421
Re: Fantasy Tips

Maybe throw Ryan Matthews in with Andre, Mendenhall, and Steven Jackson.

Shonn Greene isn't far behind either.
__________________
God made certain people to play football. He was one of them.
Schneed10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 11:42 AM   #42
Schneed10
A Dude
 
Schneed10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Newtown Square, PA
Age: 45
Posts: 12,421
Re: Fantasy Tips

Quote:
Originally Posted by GhettoDogAllStars View Post
You might like this:
Joe Bryant - Principles of VBD

"The value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position."

1. The object of the game is not to score a ton of points, but to outscore the opponent. You must fill a roster with a specified number of players at specified positions. The surest way to outscore your opponent is to build a team of players that outscore their peers. The players who most distance themselves from the other players at their respective positions are therefore the most valuable. Remember the 8 player draft example where I can't lose after drafting the 20 point WR.

2. Factors such as the specific number of teams, starting lineup requirements, frozen players, and scoring system for your league dramatically effect the values of each player. These factors can cause the same player in two different leagues to have dramatically different values.
Great stuff. Those are the exact concepts I rely on.
__________________
God made certain people to play football. He was one of them.
Schneed10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 12:40 PM   #43
mredskins
Gamebreaker
 
mredskins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 12,693
Re: Fantasy Tips

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyk View Post
A big hint I always tell folks is watch those bye weeks. You see it all the time where someone drafts a team with no regard to the bye weeks, and they end up with half their starters out for a particular week.

I love folks that obese about Bye weeks always leaves some yummy picks for me to gobble up in the late rounds.

So you have one week where you get crushed big deal better then having a favorable bye week players but getting beat every week.

Everyone should read the article that was posted above about VBD, bye weeks are never a factor. I have used that method for awhile and it seems to work well. the hard part is forecasting out each players points for the year. If you are handy in Excel it can go be done really quick.
__________________
When life gives you paper jams, turn them into paper footballs!
mredskins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 12:44 PM   #44
MTK
\m/
 
MTK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: NY
Age: 52
Posts: 99,443
Re: Fantasy Tips

I wouldn't pass on a player necessarily due to a bye, but it's something to keep in mind. I don't like giving away easy wins myself. That's just my view.
__________________
Support The Warpath! | Warpath Shop
MTK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2010, 12:52 PM   #45
MTK
\m/
 
MTK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: NY
Age: 52
Posts: 99,443
Re: Fantasy Tips

And we're not talking being screwed for one week either, depending on your breakdown you could easily end up getting screwed for 2 weeks.
__________________
Support The Warpath! | Warpath Shop
MTK is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:18 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
We have no official affiliation with the Washington Commanders or the NFL.
Page generated in 0.32436 seconds with 11 queries