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Election Day Thread - Nov. 3, 2020

Debating with the enemy

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Old 10-29-2020, 06:09 PM   #11
Hug Anne Spyder
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Join Date: Mar 2005
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Re: Election Day Thread - Nov. 3, 2020

Originally Posted by SunnySide View Post
Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure youíre not seeing things. This morningís ABC News/The Washington Post survey of Wisconsin was just such a poll. It showed Joe Biden 17 points (not a typo) ahead of President Trump, 57 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. To put it mildly, this is a stunning margin in what is supposed to be one of the most competitive swing states in the country ó a place that Trump carried by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.

RABA Research was out with a poll yesterday showing Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 46 percent in Iowa. Last week, the A+ pollsters Monmouth University and Siena College/The New York Times Upshot found similar margins. Iowa, remember, is a fairly red state that Trump carried by 9 points in 2016. And for the first time, our forecast now gives Biden a better chance than Trump of winning the state, although itís still basically a coin flip (Bidenís odds are 51 in 100).

Yesterday, Gravis Marketing released a survey of Minnesota in which Biden led Trump by 14 points. Bidenís chances of winning Minnesota have now reached an all-time high of 94 in 100.

On Sunday, we also got a Gravis poll of Michigan that gave Biden a 13-point lead. Thatís on top of last weekís Fox News poll of Michigan showing Biden 12 points ahead. And this morning, ABC News/Washington Post also released a Michigan poll giving Biden a smaller 7-point lead. Overall, our forecast gives Biden a 94 in 100 chance of winning the Wolverine State.


Wisconsin - Biden
Michigan - Biden
Minnesota - Biden

Iowa - toss up leaning Biden
Stop it Sunny, really don't want to get my hopes up. Better to be prepared for disappointment because anything less than a blowout and Trump will be litigating all the way to a stacked Supreme Court.
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