Offseason Roster Moves Thread

[Warthog]

Yeah, Fuller is just a slot CB. But if he is cheap enough he may overplay his price. Wouldn’t that be a change!


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[SFREDSKIN]

Great article about the similarities between AJ Smith and his son Kyle.

https://www.hogshaven.com/2020/1/29/...aft-and-beyond

[GridIron26]

Originally Posted by SFREDSKIN

Great article about the similarities between AJ Smith and his son Kyle.

https://www.hogshaven.com/2020/1/29/...aft-and-beyond

I certainly hope Kyle doesn't become his father within few years.

[mooby]

Originally Posted by GridIron26

I certainly hope Kyle doesn't become his father within few years.

+1

If he learns from his dad's mistakes, great. If he becomes the next AJ Smith, we'll be talking about Rivera or Smith getting canned in a few years because they won't talk to each other. AJ Smith built those great Charger teams, and then he promptly ruined them all.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

I’ve heard he’s pretty average guy. I wouldn’t pay him some big contract...Dunbar is a much better CB

My thing w/ Dunbar is he is always in the damn cold tub. Has he ever played 16 games?? We have to bring in some corners via FA and the draft.

[GridIron26]

One thing we need to consider, Dunbar will be free agent next year so Redskins will need to figure out whether we want to spend ample of money on CB positions within 2 years.

[SkinzWin]

SiriusXM NFL radio just reported that the Panthers and Greg Olsen have parted ways as of today. Look for him to be in burgundy and gold as a part of the Panthers North next year.

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

SiriusXM NFL radio just reported that the Panthers and Greg Olsen have parted ways as of today. Look for him to be in burgundy and gold as a part of the Panthers North next year.

That would just be like keeping Vernon Davis but in white, no thanks.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

SiriusXM NFL radio just reported that the Panthers and Greg Olsen have parted ways as of today. Look for him to be in burgundy and gold as a part of the Panthers North next year.

Do not want. Age has caught up with him. We need to draft someone and perhaps overpay a bit in free agency.

[Number44]

I read something last week about Olsen possibly going into broadcasting. My guess is he retires and does just that.

[skinsfaninok]

Olsen has had a ton of injuries

[Chico23231]

Olsen is done.

[Scalper]

Post 1 of 3

How you build a roster in the NFL:

Find a QB.

Protect him.

Get pass rushers who pummel the other team’s QB.

Build from the trenches out.

Spend most FA money locking up homegrown talent that has proven effectiveness on your team in your system. That is a bit more challenging moving to a new system.

Draft BPA in upper rounds (more important to find HOFer or game-changing star than fill a need over long term), moving to more need-based approach later rounds, when more talent parity in picks, with the lone exception that if you don’t have a franchise QB you have to find one. In later rounds, emphasize high-cost positions OT,WR,CB,QB,RUSHER over low-cost positions. Signing a free agent TE and MLB costs at least $10M less than signing a FA WR & CB, for example. So if you had to go FA shopping, make it cheaper positions, and draft accordingly.

Amass more draft picks, trading down whenever possible, unless generational talent available (like Chase Young) or you need a QB. Draft picks are gold. The best GMs hit 50% of the time at best. Work the comp pick system. If we can trade down with our 3rd or 4th round picks this year, we should. If we can do so with any pick next year, we should. The best teams maximize number of picks over long term with long term strategy, rather than being knee-jerk in any given year.

You always overpay in FA, so add high-priced non-homegrown talent sparingly and judiciously.

[Scalper]

2 of 3
We are a young team somewhat rebuilding. Take at least a year for us to have any hope of winning SB with new coach and system being implemented. Get rid of older players who won’t be in prime in 2-3 years when truly competitive. Get rid of dead weight underperforming players.

Cuts:
Norman, Reed, Richardson, cap savings, $23M, total cap space, $63M (with Williams on books at $14.5M).

Trade Kerrigan. Even if only a 3rd or 4th round pick. He will be 33-35 by the time we are competitive. Love the guy, but these are the kinds of tough decisions good teams make. Some value is better than no value. Cap space now $73M.

Find whoever did the awful Smith trade/contract, stick them in a potato sack, roll them down the side of Everest. $21M in dead money. Atrocious.



Offense

This will be priority. Developing our young QB is crucial. Doing so is priceless. No team in the salary cap era has won more than a single SB without a stud franchise QB. If we wait a year on FS or CB or reshaping the LB core, so be it. You can’t have Haskins stagnate another year. He should have started day one, but Gruden played the guy who might have saved his job. Haskins is very inexperienced and will need time. Give him EVERYTHING you can.
TE is secondary to OL, even though TE most glaring hole on roster. One blown passing assignment by some lead-footed OL can cost us our franchise QB for a year or more, and the price of lost development makes it punitive. We could wait a year for a solid TE (though I rather wouldn’t). We can’t wait a year for a LT.

We have a QB. You draft Chase Young, no brainer. No one is giving us 3 #1s. Someone may offer an additional #1 and a lower pick or 2. We will not be picking this high again for a while. Rivera may not be Lombardi, but we should be a six-win team absolute minimum, on strength of Del Rio and defense alone. You take the transcendent quarterback killer and know you have an elite pass rush with him and Sweat for the next decade. Next pick 3rd round, no starting LT to be found there.

Resign Williams LT 4-year deal, $16M a year, lots of guarantees, overpay him a bit, may eat some cap by year four, that’s life. As much about sending the proper message to other FAs and team, as his talent. He will miss some games, but we have to have a good LT. You can’t let the only surefire HOF homegrown player on roster be treated that way and leave. About long term culture, righting the culture. And Williams most talented LT available to us unless you pass on Chase Young which you shouldn’t. If Young taken by Cincy, improbable, you trade back take one of OTs who is also BPA or the stud CB. Would have been better to have had a plan, but we hosed that. Williams may very well want to just be traded or play out current deal, he is in last year. There is no one available where we draft or in FA who is even close to him as a pass blocker, even a bit diminished by age--if he is healthy. Would have been better to have a plan here, but we didn’t, you eat this one as the final price of having an imbecile like Allen running things.

Resign Schiff. $14-15M annual. Sucks one of our only elite players is at a low leverage position like RG, easiest position on line to fill, but talent is talent, have to keep what elite talent we have. Don’t love his injury record, and he is almost 30, so not too long a deal.

Resign Flowers. Could cost as much as $8M annual. Do it anyway. He is young and solid if not world beater. He never should have been a T, but is just a beast in terms of raw strength and should continue to improve as a G. He is only 26.

Alternatively, sign Thurney in place of Schiff or Flowers, all depends on market and demands. X factor compensatory picks, letting either G walk, getting 3rd or 4th comp pick next year, and rotating Martin in. No idea if comp picks in new CBA, another X factor.

We can’t afford to have a completely rebuilt line making bad mistakes protecting an inexperienced starting QB with slow mental processing of defenses. Prescription for disaster. Easy to say don’t spend this money. Just imagine Haskins getting his knee bent back 180 degrees the wrong way by blown pass protection. Enough said.

You now have solid OL:
Williams - Flowers - Roullier - Scherff - Moses
You have also spent $25M in new money on OL.
$48M in cap space remaining.
Backups: Martin G, Piersch C, Christian T

What I don’t like about this OL is that the money on young players is backwards. You should spend a lot on tackles and a C, and find serviceable Gs in later rounds or at Walmart. You could argue we reset the switch, but still hostage to past a bit with such a young QB and no 2nd round pick. Flowers and Scherff were both first round picks and have elite traits. Williams enough said. You should have a backup true C that can swing to G, rather than vice versa, only took us 20 years to figure that out. Our backup G and C are solid and serviceable. We could use two new backup Ts easily.
RT is a conundrum. Maybe Moses improves with better coaching, but Callahan was no slouch. Easy to become disheartened with old regime though. Bit ridiculous to have four high-priced OL though. Someone besides Roullier needs to be on a rookie deal, or not be a super-high-priced FA.
With uncertainty about Williams returning, and Moses being far from inspiring, Christian being far from inspiring, and Penn being a pork chop, you could argue we have NOTHING at tackle. No surprise we brought Henderson in for a look. We should take a look at Robinson of Browns as well. High pick, mauler, more a run blocker, struggles pass protection. If you were going to let Scherff walk, or Flowers, you could bring him in as backup G at the least, if he’s sensible about a deal, at lower cost.

You could argue that we would be far better off letting Flowers walk, starting Martin at LT, and spending money on a free agent RT. Except that there aren’t any great options in FA. Some say Conklin, but he is not a great pass protector. You could say Humphries, or Vaitai, etc., but none excite me as way better than Moses, who is making $8M a year.

WE HAVE A SERIOUS PROBLEM AT OT. IT IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM ON THE ROSTER, NOT TE AS EVERYONE SAYS. THERE ARE FAR MORE TALENTED TEs THAN TACKLES, IN GENERAL, AND IN FREE AGENCY. OUR FRANCHISE QB IS GOING TO GET KILLED IF WE DON’T SOLVE IT.

Allen deserved to be fired for mismanagement of this single position alone.
Even if you say sign Williams, keep Moses and give him one more year, we have NOTHING behind them. Williams will miss a few games, even if we can sign him back. Who is starting in the interim on this roster? No one.
We have to either sign a solid backup T, ideally someone younger, or commit to drafting best T available with our 3rd round pick. Ideally though, you want to have some option on roster so you can go BPA more and don’t have to reach. Not a bad draft for tackles, a half dozen to dozen tackles second-third round grades. If you could trade Kerrigan for a T, awesome. It would be FAR from absurd to use 3rd and 4th round picks on OT, or the 3rd and the 3rd for Kerrigan (may be unrealistic) on OT. Picking top of 3rd round, you would pray a starting T might fall to us, insurance against Moses and Williams. It would not break my heart to draft 3 Ts, cut Moses, Christian, and go young, but the board would have to fall that way. If Moses sucks it up and Williams gets hurt even if signed, we need two starting Ts.

In some combination of Robinson, Henderson, Rookies, we have to find 2-3 Ts. I would MUCH rather have Ts slide to G than keep an extra G. Maybe you try Scherff or Flowers at RT, though again, Callahan probably already considered this. There’s also no guarantee a 3rd round pick at T pans (50% bust rate), which is why I’d use my 4th rounder too. If they all pan out, kind of problem you want to have.

The problem here is balancing the long term need to draft and develop versus plugging the holes. OL is the one place on roster you can’t have gaping holes if you want your QB to live. Deep in my gut, I’d want to draft 3 Ts, hope one develops or flashes, figure one may bust or go to PS, and cut Moses this year or next.

Free agents you let walk: Davis. Thompson. Keenum. McCoy. Peterson. Penn. DRC. Bergstrom. Bostic. Colvin. Burton. Orchard. Smallwood. Cunningham. Woodrum. Humphrey.

Resign Brantley if he’ll take a cheap deal. So we resigned Scherff, Flowers, Brantley.

WR, could be worse. High pick on WR luxury we don’t have this year. Lots of high WRs bust, you can find good #2 WRs in later rounds. We have Mclaurin, Sims Jr., Sims, Harmon, Quinn. We could debate how good all except McLaurin are, Sims Jr. sticks special teams alone, Harmon at least a 5th WR, Sims has size but not speed or perhaps enough, Quinn Gruden favorite and may not stick but could be a #5 or #6 WR on some team maybe not ours. I look at McLaurin, Sims Jr., Harmon as near locks to stay on the roster. All on rookie deals. The lower portion of WR depth chart more wide open. If Quinn sticks, smurfy WR core, could use a big man, would look for one late in draft. WRs are expensive, but usually a lot in FA, and if patient can get some deals. Best approach would be to draft a developmental big WR late rounds, perhaps sign the right FA if price right. With a big armed QB like Haskins, speed at WR sure would help. Overall, you could do worse than starting McLaurin Harmon outside, Sims Jr. slot, not spending a nickel in FA, drafting a WR or UDFA, and standing pat and saving money. A modest priced FA makes sense though.

RB. I’m not a big Peterson fan. He was great, he is good now, but I want a back of the future not a guy in decline. RB is a position for the young. Guice Love both talented, both can’t stay healthy. Guice especially worrisome health wise, injured every year, may be the next Jordan Reed. If the Browns are stupid enough not to tender Hunt high or extend him, I’d sign him, only RB FA I’d sign to decent sized deal, besides Henry, but no way he hits FA. Lots of young cheap RBs in the league, and teams consistently find solid RBs late round. We should draft a RB, sign one on the cheap, have Guice Love and other 2 RBs compete, maybe IR one if they all look good. We need SPEED at the RB position. We need a #3 back not just change of pace, but that can start. To me, signing or cutting Peterson is a good litmus of the new regime. I would not break my heart to draft 2 RBs. Can’t have Love Guice both injury prone and Thompson injury prone. Thompson another Gruden favorite may not be a Rivera favorite. This is also a bit of an unsettled position.

TE you need to start over from scratch. There is no one on roster I love, except perhaps Sprinkle or someone else as a #3. Everyone says sign a big name FA. Hooper might command as much as $12M a year. He isn’t as fast as I’d like, and with all that WR and RB talent in Atlanta, it may have made him look better than he was, but he certainly doesn’t suck. With the amount of cap space we have, we could certainly pay that much, but whether we should is another question, or hold out for a second-tier guy for half the price. If we make a single splash signing in FA, this is probably it, at TE. We still need to draft a backup this year, and another TE year after. When you look at need for depth at TE and WR and RB, trading down anytime you can except with first pick makes sense, except we are desperate for T help. There are 3rd or 4th T on other teams that might start for us.

Again, Allen left the cupboard completely bare at TE through typical mismanagement, and as with T, we are a hostage to that. We don’t have to reach or overpay for a TE though, in the way we must T. If bidding for FA TEs gets insane, sign a second-tier one to a good deal, and plan on drafting one next year higher. WE ARE NOT WINNING THE SB THIS YEAR OR NEXT. WE DO NOT NEED TO FRANTICALLY PLUG EVERY HOLE WITH HIGH PRICED FAs. My only exception is OL.

We also need a veteran QB and backup developmental QB. Alex Smith should illustrate than any NFL QB is but one play away from done. We need a young guy learning the system. NEVER been a fan of Smith, but can’t really cut him until next year, and if we do, massive dead money. He’s never won anything, and we never should have traded for him. Trading Fuller and picks for him was atrocious. Yet another fleecing of our old FO, reminiscent of the Bailey trade, etc. I want a backup who knows that’s all he is, rather than a guy with delusions of starting or being elite, so that the focus is developing Haskins. Haskins is no sure thing, Smith never has won or will win anything, so we absolutely need developmental QB.

A RB or two, a receiver or three, a tight end or three, a tackle or three, a guard potentially, developmental QB. We could use all our picks in the draft on O and not fill all our holes needs. We have some talent on O, for sure, but also a huge work in progress. If we sign say Hooper, or some other good FA without the name recognition but equal talent, Guice stays healthy, our young WRs develop, and we figure out the mess that is the O-line, we could be better, but we realistically have two drafts before having any hope of sufficient depth and talent. We need to trade back EVERY chance we get after drafting Young and best OT available. And every chance we get next year unless stud OT falls to us in first round.

[Scalper]

The Defense is way easier.

First, it is secondary in priority, no lame pun intended.
DL: Allen, Payne, Ioannidis, Sweat, Settle, Brantley, Young. Maybe new regime doesn’t love Brantley, maybe they keep Kerrigan. I say get rid of Kerrigan, per earlier. Young Sweat you have a remake of the old Manley Mann terror. The rotational possibilities with this much talent on D-line need not be belabored. If a DL rated high drops after 3rd round and an exceptional value pick, take him, otherwise bring in UDFA or cheap veteran for depth. It is galling how incompetent Manusky was to accomplish so little with this much talent.

LB: Big transition, to 4-3, but talent here too. If Foster comes back, the front seven of this D looks like an absolute monster. I like Holcomb, I like Dion Hamilton, I like Harvey-Clemons, I like Anderson. Without Foster, there is no elite talent here, but certainly serviceable. Anderson seemed miscast in 3-4, he doesn’t cover or rush real well, but as more of a SLB thumper he could be in his niche. Holcomb obviously solid as well, whether still will be in new scheme who knows, but looks promising. You could do worse than Anderson, Holcomb, and Dion Hamilton or Harvey Clemons. With Foster, Anderson, Holcomb, even better. Anderson, DH, HC, Holcomb is four solid LBs, if Foster back five. Still probably need to add one. With so many needs on O, I just think the D can wait a years unless huge value presents in draft. MLB is a place you can find value in FA though, lot of young players. I don’t like Bostic, simply because he is just average and rather get someone younger. If he’ll resign cheap, could do worse, and even if we had to fill a 5th or 6th slot, there are cheap FAs available. I might sign one FA to a high value contract if needed, but ideally let it ride with talent we have, and draft more ILBs next year. There should be reasonable value with young players with upside on the cheap. Brailford seems like an unknown, curious to see if he sticks. He made sense as situational OLB edge rusher in 3-4, not sure where he fits in new D. Seems a bit small for DE in 4-3, bit slow in space if not pass rushing, stick as a backup? He could be a casualty of the transition to new D.

CB: Dunbar, Moreau, Moreland. Not sure anyone else sticks, and maybe not even these guys. We’ll almost certainly need to add a FA, people want the big names, but CB is among most expensive positions and you rarely get what you pay for (see Josh Norman). Given cost of position, drafting a CB or two essential, ideally one mid-round, one late. Not sure Moreland ever a starter, but Moreau intriguing. Except for OL, more inclined to pass on huge name FAs and draft and develop. Sign a second tier guy to modest deal would be wisest long term, and then draft another corner first or second round pick next year. What we’ll probably do is bring in big-name high-priced guy. Another price of Allen’s mismanagement.

S: Collins a lock, Nicholson should make it, Apke has potential, not sure anyone else. Apke intriguing. You need a FS with wheels in today’s NFL. Nicholson and Apke both have that. No way should we sign a free agent FS for big bucks. Need depth here, but not this year unless on the cheap or value pick in draft late. If Nicholson or Apke can’t get it done this year under a great D coordinator like Del Rio, we’ll be drafting a FS or signing one next year. It is tough to know how good some players are given how bad Manusky was. Nicholson and Apke are booth good measurable guys who don’t show up in games enough. It would not be surprising to see a major addition at S because of this fact, but could also make sense to stand pat, give both one year to shine, and draft someone next year otherwise. Nicholson could be a beast with good coaching, but some athletic guys just aren’t great football players. Though not one of the high priority positions, this is one of the most interesting. We could end up adding 2-3 safeties, or none.

You look at this D and there are no gaping holes. Moreau and Nicholson are not world beaters, but they are not atrocious. It is stupefying that this D was not better under Manusky, except not really, because he is awful. In the most aggressive scenario, we sign a big-name MLB, a big-name CB, and a big-name S. Doubt that happens, but one or two may. If we stood pat and made no additions to this D roster save Chase Young, it should still be a top-15 D. With a good corner opposite Dunbar, top-10. Manusky should be bagging groceries for his next job. Need serious depth and talent in secondary though, but it may have to wait until next year’s draft to be solved with finality.

We could take 3 CBs, 2 Ss, 2 DL, ad 2 LBs in this draft no problem, though DL obviously not a commanding need. Yet again, we need to be trading down as much as possible. If we get unlucky injury wise in secondary, could be a long season for D. Need to find some gems in the rough UDFA or FA in secondary and possibly LB. Would not surprise me if we signed 2 CBs, one big name, one cheaper young depth player with upside.

We are set on special teams kicker, punter, could use another returner depth CB or WR or RB late round pick that also returns.

We could easily draft 21 players on O and D, and could really use 14 draft picks minimum, but have 7 if the single comp pick sticks. Chase Young. We have to draft a T. Probably also a TE for depth. A CB and WR make sense because they are needs and expensive positions, CB especial. Developmental QB, but can’t make one fall. Young, T, TE, CB, QB is five picks. Say a WR and a second OT. That doesn’t address RB, S, LB, additional corner, etc. If we came out of draft with Young, we won regardless, but a solid OT and developmental QB plus solid depth TE, CB, and WR would be awesome.
Final note is FAs 2021. One is Kerrigan. You could argue keep him one more year, to round out rotation, and then get comp pick. I’d take bird in the hand, trade him for what you can. Gotta have courage to go young with Young and Sweat, but who is spelling them? Keep Kerrigan to that? I’d say Allen, Io, etc.
Foster, Dunbar, Anderson, Moreau, Nicholson, Sprinkle, Roullier all FAs in 2021. Why is this relevant? Because good teams look ahead, so don’t end up with messes like we have at T, TE, S. Should we lock up Dunbar or Foster this year, keep them from FA? Draft a C in case we don’t want to pay Roullier, a solid but not elite C? Draft an extra CB to groom someone to take place of departing CB? Foster when healthy is a MONSTER player. Foot a huge risk. If he looks good early season, big if with that injury, lock him up for sure. Another first round talent. Dunbar might make sense to extend, but then you’d have 2 high priced FA CBs on roster if we sign one. So are you committing $25M to your starting CBs? Letting Moreau walk? Not signing the big name CB and drafting one high?

That is all.