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PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

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Old 05-08-2015, 07:43 PM   #1
30gut
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PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

Another advanced metric article from Football Outsiders for those football nerds out there.

This metric breaksdown incomplete passes into categories:

Quote:
"Overthrows & Underthrows
While it's true that a receiver can always adjust to and catch a poorly thrown ball (for evidence of this, watch any Terry Bradshaw highlight reel), that is not the norm in the NFL. Everything tabulated here for overthrown and underthrown passes relates only to incompletions. We combine the two totals together to calculate a "Bad Pass" percentage."
Quarterback Passes Overthrown Pct. Rk Underthrown Pct. Rk Bad Throw Pct. Rk

Drew Brees 653 44 6.7% 2 25 3.8% 3 69 10.6% 1
Robert Griffin 214 14 6.5% 1 12 5.6% 20 26 12.1% 2
Matt Ryan 623 63 10.1% 7 27 4.3% 8 90 14.4% 3
Ryan Tannehill 589 70 11.9% 18 16 2.7% 1 86 14.6% 4
Ryan Fitzpatrick 311 30 9.6% 6 16 5.1% 15 46 14.8% 5
Tony Romo 434 48 11.1% 11 17 3.9% 5 65 15.0% 6
Jay Cutler 561 53 9.4% 5 32 5.7% 21 85 15.2% 7
Alex Smith 464 36 7.8% 3 35 7.5% 31 71 15.3% 8
Andrew Luck 616 73 11.9% 16 24 3.9% 4 97 15.7% 9
Aaron Rodgers 520 47 9.0% 4 36 6.9% 28 83 16.0% 10
Philip Rivers 569 63 11.1% 12 28 4.9% 13 91 16.0% 11
Ben Roethlisberger 599 62 10.4% 8 35 5.8% 23 97 16.2% 12
Derek Carr 593 65 11.0% 9 32 5.4% 18 97 16.4% 13
Teddy Bridgewater 397 55 13.9% 30 11 2.8% 2 66 16.6% 14
Russell Wilson 451 54 12.0% 19 21 4.7% 10 75 16.6% 15
Eli Manning 600 71 11.8% 15 31 5.2% 16 102 17.0% 16
Andy Dalton 481 64 13.3% 27 20 4.2% 7 84 17.5% 17
Geno Smith 366 47 12.8% 23 18 4.9% 12 65 17.8% 18
Quarterback Passes Overthrown Pct. Rk Underthrown Pct. Rk Bad Throw Pct. Rk
Mike Glennon 202 24 11.9% 17 13 6.4% 25 37 18.3% 19
Shaun Hill 229 30 13.1% 25 12 5.2% 17 42 18.3% 20
Tom Brady 582 64 11.0% 10 43 7.4% 30 107 18.4% 21
Mark Sanchez 309 42 13.6% 28 15 4.9% 11 57 18.4% 22
Peyton Manning 595 76 12.8% 22 35 5.9% 24 111 18.7% 23
Carson Palmer 224 29 12.9% 24 13 5.8% 22 42 18.8% 24
Austin Davis 282 39 13.8% 29 14 5.0% 14 53 18.8% 25
Kyle Orton 445 50 11.2% 13 36 8.1% 33 86 19.3% 26
Joe Flacco 548 72 13.1% 26 36 6.6% 27 108 19.7% 27
Matthew Stafford 599 74 12.4% 21 46 7.7% 32 120 20.0% 28
Josh McCown 323 48 14.9% 33 18 5.6% 19 66 20.4% 29
Drew Stanton 240 29 12.1% 20 21 8.8% 34 50 20.8% 30
Nick Foles 310 45 14.5% 31 20 6.5% 26 65 21.0% 31
Cam Newton 446 76 17.0% 36 18 4.0% 6 94 21.1% 32
Colin Kaepernick 478 80 16.7% 35 22 4.6% 9 102 21.3% 33
Blake Bortles 474 69 14.6% 32 33 7.0% 29 102 21.5% 34
Kirk Cousins 204 24 11.8% 14 21 10.3% 36 45 22.1% 35
Brian Hoyer 437 65 14.9% 34 42 9.6% 35 107 24.5% 36
NFL AVG - - 12.2% - - 5.8% - - 18.0% -

Their take on Griffin's # of 'bad passes'
Quote:
Robert Griffin did not seem to make many good plays last season, but throwing accurate passes was not his problem. He averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and completed 68.7 percent of his passes. The problems were that a third of his completions were unsuccessful plays, and he struggled with sacks and turnovers behind a bad offensive line.
Their take on Cousins # of 'bad passes'
Quote:
Playing in an offense similar to Griffin's in his rookie year, Brian Hoyer had the highest Bad Throw rate at 24.5 percent. He was really the anti-Brees: third-worst in overthrow rate, second-worst in underthrow rate. His reliance on deception to generate big plays was exposed as the season wore on and film and injuries accumulated. Kirk Cousins was next in line in Washington thanks to his league-high rate of underthrown passes. Guess it's pretty hard to overthrow DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Note that Griffin had the lowest rate of overthrown passes and Colt McCoy (not featured) similarly had a 6.3 percent overthrow rate.
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Old 05-08-2015, 08:44 PM   #2
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

Interesting for sure.
I am TOTALLY behind the metric measurement system if it means Robert will be successful...
If not, it's ridiculous unfounded nonsense for idiots.
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Old 05-09-2015, 07:22 AM   #3
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

KC pushes the ball downfield. Griffin doesn't throw anything over 8 yards. It's hard to overthrow such short passes.This means very little to me.
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Old 05-09-2015, 09:07 AM   #4
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

Pushing the ball down the field doesn't do much good if you're not accurate or always throwing it to the other team.
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Old 05-09-2015, 10:28 AM   #5
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

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Originally Posted by skinsfan69 View Post
KC pushes the ball downfield. Griffin doesn't throw anything over 8 yards. It's hard to overthrow such short passes.This means very little to me.
Griffins problem is holding onto the ball to long or bailing out of the pocket when he should have stuck in the pocket, creating a sack when one wasnt immediately there. When he actually releases the ball, it can go just about any distance. He has had plenty of long throws, including some overthrows of Desean on long passes (which is not easy to do). To say that he doesnt throw past 8 yards is like saying that Cousins makes Joe Montana and Tom Brady look like bad QB's, its just a false statement.
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Old 05-09-2015, 11:23 AM   #6
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

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Originally Posted by skinsfan69 View Post
KC pushes the ball downfield. Griffin doesn't throw anything over 8 yards. It's hard to overthrow such short passes.This means very little to me.
The only starting QBs that averaged more yards per attempt than Griffin(according to ESPN) were Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kirk Cousins did too, but it's not a big margin: 8.38 to Griffin's 7.92.
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Old 05-09-2015, 03:08 PM   #7
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

I'm not making it a Griffin vs KC debate. I can see with my own eyes that when Griffin is in there we have an extremely conservative offense cause of his limitations in the drop back game. KC was asked to do a lot more and more was put on him in the passing game. He hit a lot of big plays and also had a few terrible quarters of football. Both were benched, both have their issues and need to get better. Hopefully one will pull away from the other and squash the QB controversy. I really don't care who wins the job, just tired of sub par QB play.
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Old 05-09-2015, 03:13 PM   #8
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hog1 View Post
Interesting for sure.
I am TOTALLY behind the metric measurement system if it means Robert will be successful...
If not, it's ridiculous unfounded nonsense for idiots.
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Old 05-09-2015, 03:25 PM   #9
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

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Originally Posted by skinsfan69 View Post
I'm not making it a Griffin vs KC debate. I can see with my own eyes that when Griffin is in there we have an extremely conservative offense cause of his limitations in the drop back game. KC was asked to do a lot more and more was put on him in the passing game. He hit a lot of big plays and also had a few terrible quarters of football. Both were benched, both have their issues and need to get better. Hopefully one will pull away from the other and squash the QB controversy. I really don't care who wins the job, just tired of sub par QB play.
I dont think any one else was making this out to be Griffin vs Cousins. We are countering your claim that Griffin wont throw beyond 8 yards downfield. He has thrown plenty of long balls.
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Old 05-10-2015, 11:58 AM   #10
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

Agree w Hog1, statistics can "prove" anything.. But that doesn't stop discussions in a long offseason.

We've improved on paper with (1) pass blocking (Sherff, ?Long, ?MJones pass blocking), (2) ?better defense (?closer games, less passing situations / less pass rush). (3) ?better ST play (?better field position).


If the above changes translate to the field, Griffin should be more comfortable / more time to make good decisions. He had good accuracy in 2012, and maybe these stats confirm (?) that he still has that potential. We all knew Griffin needed several years to develop, but we never gave him good protection like Wilson. I'm willing to hope Griffin makes a comeback this year...
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Old 05-10-2015, 12:53 PM   #11
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

I think that the statistics 30gut posted go a long way towards proving that RGIII is an accurate passer - and his accuracy is something that some folks who post here have questioned. I am ready to accept that accuracy is not his problem.

On the other hand, I believe that he also has a long list of flaws in his game that are keeping him from becoming an adequate pocket passer. Our offseason player acquisitions won't help him much unless he learns things like taking the proper number of steps when he drops back, quickly going through his progressions, stepping up in the pocket, feeling the rush and moving just enough to get off a throw instead of running, throwing the ball out of bounds when necessary, etc., etc.
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Old 05-11-2015, 09:55 AM   #12
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

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Originally Posted by ethat001 View Post
Agree w Hog1, statistics can "prove" anything.. But that doesn't stop discussions in a long offseason.

We've improved on paper with (1) pass blocking (Sherff, ?Long, ?MJones pass blocking), (2) ?better defense (?closer games, less passing situations / less pass rush). (3) ?better ST play (?better field position).


If the above changes translate to the field, Griffin should be more comfortable / more time to make good decisions. He had good accuracy in 2012, and maybe these stats confirm (?) that he still has that potential. We all knew Griffin needed several years to develop, but we never gave him good protection like Wilson. I'm willing to hope Griffin makes a comeback this year...
This team needs to be a run first offense, with a passing game as support of the run. Given what I saw in the draft, it looks like we're heading in that direction.

We don't need RG3 to be a playmaker or to try to win games by himself. We need to throw less passes (last year Dallas and Seattle were at the bottom of the NFL in pass attempts), run more (and that includes RG3), and have a solid defense to help with that plan.
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Old 05-11-2015, 10:17 AM   #13
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

I like these statistics but they definitely need to be interpreted carefully. The adage that statistics can prove anything you want is completely false, if you're thinking about them carefully, including what the statistics are NOT telling you, then they can only tell you one thing.

1) These stats do not take into account the distance the ball travels downfield. Obviously the shorter your passes the easier it is to be accurate. I don't think Griffin was just dinking and dunking all the time but he wasn't bombing it either.

2) These stats measure only your success rate when you threw the ball. Holding onto the ball too long due to missed reads and bailing out early due to pressure were Griffin's biggest problems. The worst part of his game isn't captured by these metrics - missed opportunities. He misses the opportunity to make throws because he's not getting through his progressions fast enough. He double clutches, he second-guesses, and he takes lots of sacks. Those don't show up as throws.

3) It does show that when he throws the ball, he's accurate. But you can't directly compare his accuracy numbers here to those of the other QBs, because he's throwing more of his passes when the 1st or 2nd read is open. Obviously when you drop back and your first read gets open, it's very easy to hit the target. Other QBs are throwing the ball when the 3rd or 4th option is open, which reduces accuracy because by the time you get to the 3rd or 4th read the defense is bearing down on you. Where other QBs are giving their teams a chance on the 3rd or 4th read, Robert is busy taking a sack.

It says this: he has no shortage of arm talent. He's plenty accurate enough and has plenty of arm strength. That we knew. His issues are mental.

Good stats if interpreted correctly. Of course, if you're watching the game you don't need the stats. You can see the problem is mental.
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Old 05-11-2015, 10:24 AM   #14
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

The run first mentality will do much for many of our weakness both O and D and make our QB's much improved. The much Pundit....ized idea that this cannot work is absurd
Love the thought of actually running on 3rd and 2
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Old 05-11-2015, 12:14 PM   #15
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Re: PFF:2014 Inc Pass Breakdown: QBs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Schneed10 View Post
It says this: he has no shortage of arm talent. He's plenty accurate enough and has plenty of arm strength. That we knew. His issues are mental.

Good stats if interpreted correctly. Of course, if you're watching the game you don't need the stats. You can see the problem is mental.
Exactly. Arguments that RGIII dinks and dunks are just ridiculous. I too "saw with my own eyes" as balls went over the heads of defenders. Physically, he has all the tools.

I've said it before, I'll say it again, RG3 has the physical ability to be great. I also think he has certain leadership "it" factor intangibles that will work for him IF he can demonstrate the ability to learn the mental/instinctual aspects of the QB position and win on the field.

However, we are four years into it, he has suffered multiple injuries, and he has demonstrated a lot of immaturity/divaness at times. I am pulling for him and I think the team Scot McC is trying to build is the one that will help him take the next step. At the same time, he needs to demonstrate significant strides in understanding the NFL QB position.

Ultimately, I just don't know if he ever learn the proper "feel" the position. I don't doubt he's smart. I don't doubt he works hard and is willing to put time in the film room (yes, yes, I know the reports). Just not sure you can "learn" proper pocket instincts, etc.
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