Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet

[Schneed10]

I've stepped out the cap analysis game for a bit, but never was there a time when it's needed now. The NFL's $36 M adjustment to the Redskins' salary cap figure hurts, but this should not thrust the team into terrible difficulty. Redskins fans would be wise to take a collective breath.

Here's some math, sometimes seeing the numbers and how they can still work allows for some relaxation. For these purposes, I'm going to assume the Redskins will choose to spread their $36 M adjustment evenly over two years, taking $18 M each year.

Cap Space - March 6: $34.7 M
NFL Adjustment: ($18.0 M)
Atogwe Release: $3.6 M
Sellers Release: $1.0 M
Rule of 51 Adj: ($0.8 M)
Estimated Cap Space - March 12: $18.5 M

We currently have in the neighborhood of $18.5 M in cap space. One must allow for the expected resigning of a few key players, I'm using gut feel for their expected cap hits:

Rex Grossman: ($1.0 M)
London Fletcher: ($6.0 M)
Adam Carriker: ($2.5 M)
Rookie Pool: ($7.0 M)
Rule of 51 Adj: $3.9 M
Estimated Cap Space after Retentions: $5.9 M

So after we retain just a handful of additional players and pay our rookies, we're down to only $5.9 M of space. But here's where the news gets better. More releases and restructures can take place to save more space. I'd expect some, not all, of these moves to take place:

Cooley Restructure: $3.0 M
Fred Davis Extension: $2.0 M
DeAngelo Hall Release: $6.0 M
Stephen Bowen Restructure: $2.0 M
Will Montgomery Bonus Restructure: $2.0 M
Josh Wilson Restructure: $2.0 M
Potential Room Created: $17.0 M

Potential Cap Space: $22.9 M

So making all of these moves, and others I'm likely not thinking of, can get us back to $22.9 M in space. So now you simply make economic choices. Would you use $7M in space to sign VJax and kick some cap dollars into the future through restructures? Or would you forego VJax and take the cap medicine now? Do you pass on London and sign several other lower $ players instead?

This big NFL adjustment hurts - the Redskins won't feel as free wheeling as they otherwise might have. But this much is certain: the flexibility still exists to continue making the team over in Shanahan's image. It's not a cap hell situation.

[los panda]

i like it. what would bowen's new new look like?

[TheMalcolmConnection]

Thank you for the collective breath of fresh air.

Still pissed, how this went down, and think the league needs to do something, but that makes it a lot more palatable.

[MTK]

Great post Schneed. A lot of folks need to relax. We're not in cap hell, and we're definitely not backing out of the Rams deal (very confused why anyone thinks this is even a possibility).


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[Bubba305-ST21-]

yea theres still alot of flexibility, if they really like a few guys this year, whos to say they dont split the 36 down the middle maybe 25 next year and only 11 this year? it depends on who and how hard they are targeting.

[CapitalDefense]

Got this email to me from a guy on twitter

MANAGER BRUCE ALLEN REGARDING MEDIA REPORTS OF SALARY CAP ADJUSTMENTS: “The Washington Redskins have received no written documentation from the NFL concerning adjustments to the team salary cap in 2012 as reported in various media outlets. Every contract entered into by the club during the applicable periods complied with the 2010 and 2011 collective bargaining agreements and, in fact, were approved by the NFL commissioner’s office. We look forward to free agency the the draft and the coming football season.”

Now either Danny has threatened legal action and they are backing down or BA is feeding us a line of bullshit.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Great post Schneed. A lot of folks need to relax. We're not in cap hell, and we're definitely not backing out of the Rams deal (very confused why anyone thinks this is even a possibility).


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One of the beat reporters flubbed their words on this one.

[Schneed10]

Besides, I didn't want a mass spending spree anyway. I want a big name WR and some safety help, that's about it. Otherwise, I want Allen and Shanahan to continue building talent through the draft.

Trying to transform the team with an overnight spending spree is how we've gotten into trouble in years past. I think the media overstates Shanahan's need to produce a winner in the third year of his contract, I think Snyder still has his back even if he goes 6-10 this year.

But honestly, I think winning record is more than attainable just through the addition of Robert Griffin, the rest of the draft class, a big name WR, and most importantly - HEALTH.

A spending spree just isn't wise, anyway. Philadelphia Eagles circa 2011, anyone?

[CultBrennan59]

Originally Posted by CapitalDefense

Got this email to me from a guy on twitter

MANAGER BRUCE ALLEN REGARDING MEDIA REPORTS OF SALARY CAP ADJUSTMENTS: “The Washington Redskins have received no written documentation from the NFL concerning adjustments to the team salary cap in 2012 as reported in various media outlets. Every contract entered into by the club during the applicable periods complied with the 2010 and 2011 collective bargaining agreements and, in fact, were approved by the NFL commissioner’s office. We look forward to free agency the the draft and the coming football season.”

Now either Danny has threatened legal action and they are backing down or BA is feeding us a line of bullshit.

This, is going to get interesting. I agree 100% with BA. I wonder how Vinny would handle this.

[Lotus]

I appreciate the update Schneed. This makes things brighter in terms of practical reality.

However, what the NFL did to us was wrong, no matter how much cap we have left.

[CapitalDefense]

We will never be in "Cap hell " danny can buy his way out of anything, taking 18 million away would only derail there plans for a couple of years. Actually shanny has done a nice job not going overboard with high priced guys since he got here.

[CapitalDefense]

Originally Posted by Lotus

I appreciate the update Schneed. This makes things brighter in terms of practical reality.

However, what the NFL did to us was wrong, no matter how much cap we have left.

Bingo, its not the cap number, its the knife in the back right before our yearly Redskins Christmas in March.

[Schneed10]

Well Allen is now saying there's been no written communication regarding such a penalty. Makes me wonder if there's been any verbal communication.

But it sounds like Allen is ready for business as usual in free agency. We'll see where this goes...

[CapitalDefense]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Besides, I didn't want a mass spending spree anyway. I want a big name WR and some safety help, that's about it. Otherwise, I want Allen and Shanahan to continue building talent through the draft.

Trying to transform the team with an overnight spending spree is how we've gotten into trouble in years past. I think the media overstates Shanahan's need to produce a winner in the third year of his contract, I think Snyder still has his back even if he goes 6-10 this year.

But honestly, I think winning record is more than attainable just through the addition of Robert Griffin, the rest of the draft class, a big name WR, and most importantly - HEALTH.

A spending spree just isn't wise, anyway. Philadelphia Eagles circa 2011, anyone?

No, no, no but you can't get your franchise QB and not protect him or give him somebody to throw it to. You currently have no star ILB nor a single starting safety.

[cpayne5]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Well Allen is now saying there's been no written communication regarding such a penalty. Makes me wonder if there's been any verbal communication.

But it sounds like Allen is ready for business as usual in free agency. We'll see where this goes...

They probably overnight FedEx'd it. That's how the send suspension and fine notices to players, I believe. Such crap by the league, if true; 24 hours before free agency.