Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Number44;1276032]Mahomes was picked at #10.

I doubt if Lance starts day 1, no matter where he's drafted.[/quote]

Well, that's kinda my point. I don't want him in the 1st round - he's not ready to start.

In my opinion, if you are a 1st rounder you had better be starting on day 1 - period.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1276034]Well, that's kinda my point. I don't want him in the 1st round - he's not ready to start.

In my opinion, if you are a 1st rounder you had better be starting on day 1 - period.[/quote]

Look at Jordan Love. There is no reason you have to start a top of the 1st round pick if it’s not the best play. Everyone wants to play checkers, sometimes you have to play chess.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=SkinzWin;1276072]Look at Jordan Love. There is no reason you have to start a top of the 1st round pick if it’s not the best play. Everyone wants to play checkers, sometimes you have to play chess.[/quote]

Look - every team does their thing. GB did their thing, and it arguably cost them a trip to the SB this year. If they had an impact player for ARod, it could have made the difference for them in the NFC Championship game. Instead, they have Jordan Love riding the pine.

You are right. Teams aren't obligated to start their first round pick. Especially if that player doesn't give them the best chance to compete. However, I view first round picks as (should be) immediate starters, especially those picked in the top 10. That's why they are drafted where they are drafted, not to develop into starters in a couple years.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1276097]Look - every team does their thing. GB did their thing, and it arguably cost them a trip to the SB this year. If they had an impact player for ARod, it could have made the difference for them in the NFC Championship game. Instead, they have Jordan Love riding the pine.

You are right. Teams aren't obligated to start their first round pick. Especially if that player doesn't give them the best chance to compete. However, I view first round picks as (should be) immediate starters, especially those picked in the top 10. That's why they are drafted where they are drafted, not to develop into starters in a couple years.[/quote]

I agree with that should be the case most of the time, but not every time. And I don’t buy an impact player instead of Love wins them that game. Their DB King and Rodger’s stupidity for not running in for a TD late in the 4th cost them that game.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=SkinzWin;1276115]I agree with that should be the case most of the time, but not every time. And I don’t buy an impact player instead of Love wins them that game. Their DB King and Rodger’s stupidity for not running in for a TD late in the 4th cost them that game.[/quote]

Not being as good a team as Tampa Bay cost them that game.

I'm just saying an impact player could have made a difference - no way to know for sure. Likely would have made more of an impact than Jordan love did this year. Every other QB picked in the 1st or 2nd round in 2020 started games for their team this year, and will likely be THE starter in 2021. Jordan Love will be riding the pine behind Aaron for another 17 games +.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

Looks like Mac Jones had a good senior bowl week...

[url]https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2928978-top-nfl-draft-takeaways-from-the-2021-senior-bowl[/url]

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=sdskinsfan2001;1276212]Looks like Mac Jones had a good senior bowl week...

[url]https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2928978-top-nfl-draft-takeaways-from-the-2021-senior-bowl[/url][/quote]

I don’t think he’s a fit for our offense. That’s not to say they wouldn’t adapt if he’s there at 19 and they deem him our best option if we strike out in FA.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

Im really torn at staying put and snatching up a tackle like say Darrisaw or trading up for a Lance. Then there is the possibility Jones is there at 19. My brain says stay put and get an immediate impactful tackle that can help our offense but my heart says trade up for a guy like Lance.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=punch it in;1276357]Im really torn at staying put and snatching up a tackle like say Darrisaw or trading up for a Lance. Then there is the possibility Jones is there at 19. My brain says stay put and get an immediate impactful tackle that can help our offense but my heart says trade up for a guy like Lance.[/quote]

There were reports that Ron and company love Fields, wonder if that's an option to trade up

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1276358]There were reports that Ron and company love Fields, wonder if that's an option to trade up[/quote]

Jeez...

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1276358]There were reports that Ron and company love Fields, wonder if that's an option to trade up[/quote]

I think the only way we draft a QB in the first round is if everything else fails.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=punch it in;1276357]Im really torn at staying put and snatching up a tackle like say Darrisaw or trading up for a Lance. Then there is the possibility Jones is there at 19. My brain says stay put and get an immediate impactful tackle that can help our offense but my heart says trade up for a guy like Lance.[/quote]

Your brain is right.

I was re-watching the Pittsburgh game last night. Alex Smith was making some tight throws. His arm and his brain are still there, and he's no less mobile than some other QBs in the league who didn't have a world-famous injury, Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger and recently-retired Phillip Rivers all average less than 100 rushing yards a SEASON over their career. He WAS one of the more mobile QBs in the league earlier in his career and he's lost that. but he's a more than competent pocket passer at this point in his career. I'm perfectly fine with another year with him as the starter, JUST GET HIM PROTECTION.

Everyone wants to call him fragile, but EVERY quarterback who played for us last year got injured, and Kyle Allen very severely.

1st pick should be a new left tackle, and get Smith some weapons at WR in FA. Alex Smith will be more than fine with some help.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Monkeydad;1276363]Your brain is right.

I was re-watching the Pittsburgh game last night. Alex Smith was making some tight throws. His arm and his brain are still there, and he's no less mobile than some other QBs in the league who didn't have a world-famous injury, Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger and recently-retired Phillip Rivers all average less than 100 rushing yards a SEASON over their career. He WAS one of the more mobile QBs in the league earlier in his career and he's lost that. but he's a more than competent pocket passer at this point in his career. I'm perfectly fine with another year with him as the starter, JUST GET HIM PROTECTION.

Everyone wants to call him fragile, but EVERY quarterback who played for us last year got injured, and Kyle Allen very severely.

1st pick should be a new left tackle, and get Smith some weapons at WR in FA. Alex Smith will be more than fine with some help.[/quote]

I think there's zero chance RR rolls into 2021 presuming that Alex Smith will be the WFT QB.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1276364]I think there's zero chance RR rolls into 2021 presuming that Alex Smith will be the WFT QB.[/quote]


More than zero for sure. Even keeping Smith to start the season and mentor a 1st Round pick is valuable. Alex has a track record of success in that role.

[url]https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/football-team/quote-alex-smith-sounds-qb-plans-returning-2021[/url]

A lot has happened in the last 2 months but there was a lot of talk about Smith in 2021 during the season.

[url]https://www.nfl.com/news/washington-football-team-wants-qb-alex-smith-back-for-2021[/url]


[url]https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/football-team/question-isnt-about-alex-smith-2020-its-about-2021[/url]

[url]https://clutchpoints.com/rumor-ron-rivera-eyeing-to-retain-alex-smith-for-2021-nfl-season/[/url]

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1276364]I think there's zero chance RR rolls into 2021 presuming that Alex Smith will be the WFT QB.[/quote]

Agreed. Hopefully he just retires. Even if he wants to return you can't bank on him as the starter and you still have to explore all other options.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=MTK;1276366]Agreed. Hopefully he just retires. Even if he wants to return you can't bank on him as the starter and you still have to explore all other options.[/quote]

True. He'd be valuable as a backup or rookie mentor.

We don't know what China Flu restrictions this upcoming season will have going in, so starting a rookie Week 1 may not even be feasible.

Even Justin Herbert wasn't ready to go Week 1 and look at Tua's struggles.

We can't count on a 1st-Rounder if it's not a normal preseason.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

Two things from that interview starkly contrast what happened on the football field this year:

[I]"But for me, the crazy thing was how well my body responded to that," Smith continued. "I just feel like I continued to get stronger and stronger and better and better..."[/I]

Does anyone really believe that he got stronger and stronger as the weeks went on? Shoot, by the time they pulled him, he couldn't move in the pocket without falling down.


[I]Smith's recent comments also fall in line with a recent interview he did with CBS '60 Minutes,' where he said playing this season proved to himself he can still play at a high level.[/I]

Not one WFT QB played at a high level at anytime during the regular season.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

We were a completely different team with Smith than Allen or Haskins.

I'm not sure we make that playoff run with any of our other QBs. Yes the defense was the main reason for success, but they can't do it alone.

And I'm not ready to declare Heinicke the starter.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=MTK;1276366]Agreed. Hopefully he just retires. Even if he wants to return you can't bank on him as the starter and you still have to explore all other options.[/quote]

He said on that 60 Mins special that he wants to play

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Monkeydad;1276370]We were a completely different team with Smith than Allen or Haskins.

I'm not sure we make that playoff run with any of our other QBs. Yes the defense was the main reason for success, but they can't do it alone.

And I'm not ready to declare Heinicke the starter.[/quote]

I agree that the team played better when he was the starter, but let's not attribute that success to Alex's performance.

Among quarterbacks with at least one start in 2020, Smith was 33rd in passer rating, 34th in adjusted net yards per attempt, 43rd in touchdown rate, and 34th in interception rate.

He is the comeback player of the century for sure, but he can't be in pads on the WFT sideline next year in my opinion. If he is, then I will seriously have to question RR's judgement.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

I think we still would have made the same run with Allen. He was playing pretty well before the injury.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

Of course Alex Smith still wants to play. Hes set to make 24M this year if we dont release him. he only makes 10.8M if we do release him.

They literally cut muscles from his thigh/quad area and sewed it into his calf as calf muscles bc his calf muscles and soft tissue got eaten by a flesh eating bacteria.

No wonder those quad muscles they removed and sewed into his calf started having spasms and fatigue after 3-4 weeks.

No way an NFL team can commit 24M in cap space to a QB that realistically can only give you 4 games or so. Release him with a thank you and a nice press release, 10.8M in dead money but we save 13.2M in cap for this offseason.

(assuming theres not some weird cap accounting re insurance dan snyder took out that makes it more cap friendly to keep him vs release)

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=SunnySide;1276379]Of course Alex Smith still wants to play. Hes set to make 24M this year if we dont release him. he only makes 10.8M if we do release him.

They literally cut muscles from his thigh/quad area and sewed it into his calf as calf muscles bc his calf muscles and soft tissue got eaten by a flesh eating bacteria.

No wonder those quad muscles they removed and sewed into his calf started having spasms and fatigue after 3-4 weeks.

No way an NFL team can commit 24M in cap space to a QB that realistically can only give you 4 games or so. Release him with a thank you and a nice press release, 10.8M in dead money but we save 13.2M in cap for this offseason.

(assuming theres not some weird cap accounting re insurance dan snyder took out that makes it more cap friendly to keep him vs release)[/quote]

Yeah I get he is a TOUGH SOB but he has nothing else to prove, dude was 5-1 and won the division. It's time to walk away, honestly I'm surprised the team hasn't released him yet.

The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[QUOTE=Monkeydad;1276363]Your brain is right.



I was re-watching the Pittsburgh game last night. Alex Smith was making some tight throws. His arm and his brain are still there, and he's no less mobile than some other QBs in the league who didn't have a world-famous injury, Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger and recently-retired Phillip Rivers all average less than 100 rushing yards a SEASON over their career. He WAS one of the more mobile QBs in the league earlier in his career and he's lost that. but he's a more than competent pocket passer at this point in his career. I'm perfectly fine with another year with him as the starter, JUST GET HIM PROTECTION.



Everyone wants to call him fragile, but EVERY quarterback who played for us last year got injured, and Kyle Allen very severely.



1st pick should be a new left tackle, and get Smith some weapons at WR in FA. Alex Smith will be more than fine with some help.[/QUOTE]



Just for the record Alex isn’t exactly what I had in mind when I said stay put. He could be. Between the three quarterbacks we have now or possibly a free agent who is relatively cheap we might have someone who can get it done next year if we get an outstanding tackle and another wr. Plus a run game. Run game is huge. If we can build more around the quarterback we might be able to wait another year and see what the draft or free agency brings us. And we wouldn’t have gotten rid of picks or paid too much money for anyone.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1276380]Yeah I get he is a TOUGH SOB but he has nothing else to prove, dude was 5-1 and won the division. It's time to walk away, honestly I'm surprised the team hasn't released him yet.[/quote]

If he doesn't retire, the team saves $$ if they wait until after June 1st to release him.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1276382]If he doesn't retire, the team saves $$ if they wait until after June 1st to release him.[/quote]

They can designate 2 players as June 1st cuts and release them early. That is designed to let the players hit FA. I wonder if any team at all is willing to bring AS in.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1276382]If he doesn't retire, the team saves $$ if they wait until after June 1st to release him.[/quote]

As my dead brain understands it.

Cut him now, 10.8m dead cap hit for 2021.

Cut him post june 1, 5.4M dead cap hit for '21, 5.4M cap hit for '22 (but we have to "carry" his 24M cap hit from now until june 1 thereby limiting the amount of cap money we have to make moves from now until june 1)

If he cant complete his contract due to injury, wed get 12M in cap relief bc of dan snyders cap insurance policy (which I have no idea how that works)

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1276384]They can designate 2 players as June 1st cuts and release them early. That is designed to let the players hit FA. I wonder if any team at all is willing to bring AS in.[/quote]

Hmm, didn't know that. Thanks for that.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[url]https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php[/url]

^^ list of the most accurate nfl mock draft predictors from last years draft.

I recognize Albert Breer from MMQB coming in at no. 4.

Can not find any 2021 mock draft from him yet

edit -- heres his 2020 mock, some teams wish they had his pick vs who they picked.

[url]https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/21/nfl-mock-draft-17-dolphins-herbert-ruggs-lamb[/url]

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=SunnySide;1276388][url]https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php[/url]

^^ list of the most accurate nfl mock draft predictors from last years draft.

I recognize Albert Breer from MMQB coming in at no. 4.

Can not find any 2021 mock draft from him yet

edit -- heres his 2020 mock, some teams wish they had his pick vs who they picked.

[url]https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/21/nfl-mock-draft-17-dolphins-herbert-ruggs-lamb[/url][/quote]

Would have to be 5 year+ to be meaningful. Anyone can guess lucky one year.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Ruhskins;1276362]I think the only way we draft a QB in the first round is if everything else fails.[/quote]

We could have someone graded early 2nd round. The evaluations of professional scouts often differ SUBSTANTIALLY from mock draft wankers and kool-aid drinking fans (just look at some of the ridiculous trade proposals on this board for Watson to see how much fan-speak differs from reality). Let's take a hypothetical. Your highest rated QB outside the top 2 is not one of the top 4 or 5 by common reckon. This actually happens many years. Most people rate this guy 3rd 4th round, you rate him 2nd. If only one other team sees him like you, and they draft higher 2nd round, they may snipe him and you missed oout. You think he could be a franchise QB with a bit of coaching. Do you hope he's there in 2nd or draft him in first? Or trade up late first round to then get him on 5 year deal versus 4 outside 1st round? People talk about throwing away 3 1st rounders plus more to trade for a QB, but a more realistic question, when Bill O'Brien or Vinny Cerrato or Bruce Allen or THE DAN are not your GMs, is if you see a guy you think could be a franchise QB, do you draft him one round above his ranking to make sure you get him? May depend on whether there is only 1 QB you like or several.

The classic question then becomes, there is a guy sitting there at #19 that is your highest ranked prospect. Say a few people reach on QBs, one or two head scratcher picks like Raiders or other teams often make, some players the mock draft wankers have high that scouts don't, etc., you have a guy rated #16 overall sitting there at #19. A guy you believe should be solid if not pro-bowl long term starter. This is BPA, not position dependent. Your goal is to hit on 1st round pick every year so that eventually you have enough home-grown talent that few FAs makes you a contender. Picture a well-run team that didn't make dumb trades (i.e. virtually every trade proposed by homer fans) and just kept drafting 4 more years. We have resigned Young, Sweat, Allen or Payne and lost one, and have a 1st round CB, WR, LT, QB, plus 2-3 2nd or third round picks also solid starters that were "gems." You now have a team with talent like we have on DL on all levels: OL, skill positions, LB, secondary. You are then talking about a potential contender. You never get there trading the farm for some a-hole like Watson. And, because we are building primarily through the draft, when our talent like Payne or whatever guys coming off rookie deals we can't sign goes somewhere else, we get comp picks, and then start having 10-11 picks every year like the teams that are perpetually good. You know you are working the system right when there are good players you can't afford to resign EVERY year.

You hope one of players sitting there at #19 is a LT, CB, WR, a high-leverage position. If you draft a CB, WR, LT 1st round 3 years, versus signing in FA, $40M+ cap savings, money used to resign Payne, Allen, etc. This is how good teams have money to retain some but not all talent. Maybe a MLB is #16 on your board, that franchise LT or shutdown corner is #21 and still available. Might be discussion in draft room of do you take the MLB, the lower leverage position, or a slightly less talented but still starter-caliber player ranked lower. So the question becomes, do you reach a bit for a QB you think is franchise, knowing you're reaching a bit, or stick to your board? There is no simple answer because not psychic. Some teams reach for bust QBs year after year, and could have drafted quality long-term starters instead. Some teams pick the BPA and pass up franchise QBs. These are the types of questions that real GMs are asking. And good owners. The best GMs can get these decisions right. When they decide to take the QB higher, it make take 2 or 3 iterations, but they eventually find the franchise QB. Yet they mostly draft quality starters year after year after year with higher picks that become the foundation of their team. Meanwhile Homers talk about trading 27 1st round picks for some selfish a-hole QB who is very, very good but hardly great.


There ARE franchise QBs in the draft outside the top-10, and outside the 1st round, many of them starting for NFL teams right now. Our goal should be not to mortgage the future on retreads or aholes like Watson, but rather to find a QB in the draft. Hurley never got it right, Newton has never been accurate and doesn't have the heart of a champion, he blames others rather than taking ownership. Mayhew just came from a SF team that didn't get QB right. It is probably unrealistic to think either can successfully pick a franchise QB, and RR is of course going to want to trade for the instant impact starter, that's what coaches do, they have to think about the short term especially with a turd like THE DAN standing in the wings ready to meddle. The GM is supposed to have the long view in mind, the decade plus view. I honestly believe that Smith, had Dan not meddled, would have gotten QB right long ago. This should predominate in thinking about choosing a GM, but did not. Smith almost certainly advocated less glamorous QBs that had franchise potential, but they weren't sexy glamorous marketing machine picks like those THE DAN and Allen etc. favored.

Now just imagine we commit to the hard road, the long-term road that a real GM would advocate. We spend 4 picks on QB next 3 years in draft, only 1 a first rounder. We fail at a 50% rate, end up with our franchise QB and a solid backup on rookie deal. At the end of that time, we have found a true long-term franchise QB we can count on for say the next 12 years, and maybe as much as 20. We have him on rookie deal. Then you draft, draft, draft, build around him, add just a few key FAs. You have his longevity in mind at all times (see Andrew Luck), and don't have him run all the time and get killed, and you take the long view and draft STUD RT and LT and C, resign off rookie deals. You are then in position to contend for a decade or more. Even if we traded 3 1sts plus more for Watson, he is going to get hurt running, and we don't have the OL to protect him, and wouldn't have the picks to draft one.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Scalper;1276449]We could have someone graded early 2nd round. The evaluations of professional scouts often differ SUBSTANTIALLY from mock draft wankers and kool-aid drinking fans (just look at some of the ridiculous trade proposals on this board for Watson to see how much fan-speak differs from reality). Let's take a hypothetical. Your highest rated QB outside the top 2 is not one of the top 4 or 5 by common reckon. This actually happens many years. Most people rate this guy 3rd 4th round, you rate him 2nd. If only one other team sees him like you, and they draft higher 2nd round, they may snipe him and you missed oout. You think he could be a franchise QB with a bit of coaching. Do you hope he's there in 2nd or draft him in first? Or trade up late first round to then get him on 5 year deal versus 4 outside 1st round? People talk about throwing away 3 1st rounders plus more to trade for a QB, but a more realistic question, when Bill O'Brien or Vinny Cerrato or Bruce Allen or THE DAN are not your GMs, is if you see a guy you think could be a franchise QB, do you draft him one round above his ranking to make sure you get him? May depend on whether there is only 1 QB you like or several.

The classic question then becomes, there is a guy sitting there at #19 that is your highest ranked prospect. Say a few people reach on QBs, one or two head scratcher picks like Raiders or other teams often make, some players the mock draft wankers have high that scouts don't, etc., you have a guy rated #16 overall sitting there at #19. A guy you believe should be solid if not pro-bowl long term starter. This is BPA, not position dependent. Your goal is to hit on 1st round pick every year so that eventually you have enough home-grown talent that few FAs makes you a contender. Picture a well-run team that didn't make dumb trades (i.e. virtually every trade proposed by homer fans) and just kept drafting 4 more years. We have resigned Young, Sweat, Allen or Payne and lost one, and have a 1st round CB, WR, LT, QB, plus 2-3 2nd or third round picks also solid starters that were "gems." You now have a team with talent like we have on DL on all levels: OL, skill positions, LB, secondary. You are then talking about a potential contender. You never get there trading the farm for some a-hole like Watson. And, because we are building primarily through the draft, when our talent like Payne or whatever guys coming off rookie deals we can't sign goes somewhere else, we get comp picks, and then start having 10-11 picks every year like the teams that are perpetually good. You know you are working the system right when there are good players you can't afford to resign EVERY year.

You hope one of players sitting there at #19 is a LT, CB, WR, a high-leverage position. If you draft a CB, WR, LT 1st round 3 years, versus signing in FA, $40M+ cap savings, money used to resign Payne, Allen, etc. This is how good teams have money to retain some but not all talent. Maybe a MLB is #16 on your board, that franchise LT or shutdown corner is #21 and still available. Might be discussion in draft room of do you take the MLB, the lower leverage position, or a slightly less talented but still starter-caliber player ranked lower. So the question becomes, do you reach a bit for a QB you think is franchise, knowing you're reaching a bit, or stick to your board? There is no simple answer because not psychic. Some teams reach for bust QBs year after year, and could have drafted quality long-term starters instead. Some teams pick the BPA and pass up franchise QBs. These are the types of questions that real GMs are asking. And good owners. The best GMs can get these decisions right. When they decide to take the QB higher, it make take 2 or 3 iterations, but they eventually find the franchise QB. Yet they mostly draft quality starters year after year after year with higher picks that become the foundation of their team. Meanwhile Homers talk about trading 27 1st round picks for some selfish a-hole QB who is very, very good but hardly great.


There ARE franchise QBs in the draft outside the top-10, and outside the 1st round, many of them starting for NFL teams right now. Our goal should be not to mortgage the future on retreads or aholes like Watson, but rather to find a QB in the draft. Hurley never got it right, Newton has never been accurate and doesn't have the heart of a champion, he blames others rather than taking ownership. Mayhew just came from a SF team that didn't get QB right. It is probably unrealistic to think either can successfully pick a franchise QB, and RR is of course going to want to trade for the instant impact starter, that's what coaches do, they have to think about the short term especially with a turd like THE DAN standing in the wings ready to meddle. The GM is supposed to have the long view in mind, the decade plus view. I honestly believe that Smith, had Dan not meddled, would have gotten QB right long ago. This should predominate in thinking about choosing a GM, but did not. Smith almost certainly advocated less glamorous QBs that had franchise potential, but they weren't sexy glamorous marketing machine picks like those THE DAN and Allen etc. favored.

Now just imagine we commit to the hard road, the long-term road that a real GM would advocate. We spend 4 picks on QB next 3 years in draft, only 1 a first rounder. We fail at a 50% rate, end up with our franchise QB and a solid backup on rookie deal. At the end of that time, we have found a true long-term franchise QB we can count on for say the next 12 years, and maybe as much as 20. We have him on rookie deal. Then you draft, draft, draft, build around him, add just a few key FAs. You have his longevity in mind at all times (see Andrew Luck), and don't have him run all the time and get killed, and you take the long view and draft STUD RT and LT and C, resign off rookie deals. You are then in position to contend for a decade or more. Even if we traded 3 1sts plus more for Watson, he is going to get hurt running, and we don't have the OL to protect him, and wouldn't have the picks to draft one.[/quote]

Chapter 11

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Scalper;1276449]
There ARE franchise QBs in the draft outside the top-10, and outside the 1st round, many of them starting for NFL teams right now. Our goal should be not to mortgage the future on retreads or aholes like Watson, but rather to find a QB in the draft. Hurley never got it right, Newton has never been accurate and doesn't have the heart of a champion, he blames others rather than taking ownership. [B]Mayhew just came from a SF team that didn't get QB right. It is probably unrealistic to think either can successfully pick a franchise QB[/B], and RR is of course going to want to trade for the instant impact starter, that's what coaches do, they have to think about the short term especially with a turd like THE DAN standing in the wings ready to meddle. The GM is supposed to have the long view in mind, the decade plus view. I honestly believe that Smith, had Dan not meddled, would have gotten QB right long ago. This should predominate in thinking about choosing a GM, but did not. Smith almost certainly advocated less glamorous QBs that had franchise potential, but they weren't sexy glamorous marketing machine picks like those THE DAN and Allen etc. favored.

Now just imagine we commit to the hard road, the long-term road that a real GM would advocate. We spend 4 picks on QB next 3 years in draft, only 1 a first rounder. We fail at a 50% rate, end up with our franchise QB and a solid backup on rookie deal. At the end of that time, we have found a true long-term franchise QB we can count on for say the next 12 years, and maybe as much as 20. We have him on rookie deal. Then you draft, draft, draft, build around him, add just a few key FAs. You have his longevity in mind at all times (see Andrew Luck), and don't have him run all the time and get killed, and you take the long view and draft STUD RT and LT and C, resign off rookie deals. You are then in position to contend for a decade or more. Even if we traded 3 1sts plus more for Watson, he is going to get hurt running, and we don't have the OL to protect him, and wouldn't have the picks to draft one.[/quote]

Well, to be fair Kyle shanahan just admitted that he did not even evaluate the quarterbacks coming out of the draft in 2017, because he was all in on Kirk Cousins. I'm not sure how you put that QB situation on Mayhew. Didn't mayhew draft Stafford?

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1276450]Chapter 11[/quote]

I sprained my thumb trying to scroll to the bottom of his post.

I hope Warpath has user insurance, because I'm suing.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=sdskinsfan2001;1276453]i sprained my thumb trying to scroll to the bottom of his post.

I hope warpath has user insurance, because i'm suing.[/quote]

r o f l m a o ! !

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1276450]Chapter 11[/quote]

:laughing2

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

I sprained my eyeballs having to re-read it a couple of times. The font isn't ideal for big blocks of text.

I actually find it hard to disagree with some of this. I think the problem is that if we don't turn this season into a repeat at least once in the next 2 years, DS will get antsy and step in or sack RR (and probably the FO) and want to start meddling again. I think RR knows this, hence the interest in players that offer win now potential (Cooper, Stafford). I think they all want to build with the draft, but if they say they have a 3 year plan, DS will say, "but you just won the division?". I think they have to show themselves as trying to win now, while behind that starting to build a 3-5 year draft strategy that sets the stage for the future. That's what I think Shanny wanted when he drafted RG3 and Cousins, but RG3's injury screwed him.

Personally I'm not convinced there's a solid franchise QB potential in this years draft after Lawrence. Maybe it's being burned by RG3 and Haskins, but I wouldn't be trading up if we don't land someone in FA. Too much risk vs tenuous potential reward. If Jones or Lance get slated as bottom 1st/top 2nd round talent, I'd be more inclined to trade back when #19 comes up, but then you risk being pipped to the post by a team like the Bears or Colts who both need a QB, or even the Buccs planning for Brady's retirement (in 10 years ;)). As it stands, I think if any well rated QB is still there at 19 and its not a massive reach, you take him.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Scalper;1276449]We could have someone graded early 2nd round. The evaluations of professional scouts often differ SUBSTANTIALLY from mock draft wankers and kool-aid drinking fans (just look at some of the ridiculous trade proposals on this board for Watson to see how much fan-speak differs from reality). Let's take a hypothetical. Your highest rated QB outside the top 2 is not one of the top 4 or 5 by common reckon. This actually happens many years. Most people rate this guy 3rd 4th round, you rate him 2nd. If only one other team sees him like you, and they draft higher 2nd round, they may snipe him and you missed oout. You think he could be a franchise QB with a bit of coaching. Do you hope he's there in 2nd or draft him in first? Or trade up late first round to then get him on 5 year deal versus 4 outside 1st round? People talk about throwing away 3 1st rounders plus more to trade for a QB, but a more realistic question, when Bill O'Brien or Vinny Cerrato or Bruce Allen or THE DAN are not your GMs, is if you see a guy you think could be a franchise QB, do you draft him one round above his ranking to make sure you get him? May depend on whether there is only 1 QB you like or several.

The classic question then becomes, there is a guy sitting there at #19 that is your highest ranked prospect. Say a few people reach on QBs, one or two head scratcher picks like Raiders or other teams often make, some players the mock draft wankers have high that scouts don't, etc., you have a guy rated #16 overall sitting there at #19. A guy you believe should be solid if not pro-bowl long term starter. This is BPA, not position dependent. Your goal is to hit on 1st round pick every year so that eventually you have enough home-grown talent that few FAs makes you a contender. Picture a well-run team that didn't make dumb trades (i.e. virtually every trade proposed by homer fans) and just kept drafting 4 more years. We have resigned Young, Sweat, Allen or Payne and lost one, and have a 1st round CB, WR, LT, QB, plus 2-3 2nd or third round picks also solid starters that were "gems." You now have a team with talent like we have on DL on all levels: OL, skill positions, LB, secondary. You are then talking about a potential contender. You never get there trading the farm for some a-hole like Watson. And, because we are building primarily through the draft, when our talent like Payne or whatever guys coming off rookie deals we can't sign goes somewhere else, we get comp picks, and then start having 10-11 picks every year like the teams that are perpetually good. You know you are working the system right when there are good players you can't afford to resign EVERY year.

You hope one of players sitting there at #19 is a LT, CB, WR, a high-leverage position. If you draft a CB, WR, LT 1st round 3 years, versus signing in FA, $40M+ cap savings, money used to resign Payne, Allen, etc. This is how good teams have money to retain some but not all talent. Maybe a MLB is #16 on your board, that franchise LT or shutdown corner is #21 and still available. Might be discussion in draft room of do you take the MLB, the lower leverage position, or a slightly less talented but still starter-caliber player ranked lower. So the question becomes, do you reach a bit for a QB you think is franchise, knowing you're reaching a bit, or stick to your board? There is no simple answer because not psychic. Some teams reach for bust QBs year after year, and could have drafted quality long-term starters instead. Some teams pick the BPA and pass up franchise QBs. These are the types of questions that real GMs are asking. And good owners. The best GMs can get these decisions right. When they decide to take the QB higher, it make take 2 or 3 iterations, but they eventually find the franchise QB. Yet they mostly draft quality starters year after year after year with higher picks that become the foundation of their team. Meanwhile Homers talk about trading 27 1st round picks for some selfish a-hole QB who is very, very good but hardly great.


There ARE franchise QBs in the draft outside the top-10, and outside the 1st round, many of them starting for NFL teams right now. Our goal should be not to mortgage the future on retreads or aholes like Watson, but rather to find a QB in the draft. Hurley never got it right, Newton has never been accurate and doesn't have the heart of a champion, he blames others rather than taking ownership. Mayhew just came from a SF team that didn't get QB right. It is probably unrealistic to think either can successfully pick a franchise QB, and RR is of course going to want to trade for the instant impact starter, that's what coaches do, they have to think about the short term especially with a turd like THE DAN standing in the wings ready to meddle. The GM is supposed to have the long view in mind, the decade plus view. I honestly believe that Smith, had Dan not meddled, would have gotten QB right long ago. This should predominate in thinking about choosing a GM, but did not. Smith almost certainly advocated less glamorous QBs that had franchise potential, but they weren't sexy glamorous marketing machine picks like those THE DAN and Allen etc. favored.

Now just imagine we commit to the hard road, the long-term road that a real GM would advocate. We spend 4 picks on QB next 3 years in draft, only 1 a first rounder. We fail at a 50% rate, end up with our franchise QB and a solid backup on rookie deal. At the end of that time, we have found a true long-term franchise QB we can count on for say the next 12 years, and maybe as much as 20. We have him on rookie deal. Then you draft, draft, draft, build around him, add just a few key FAs. You have his longevity in mind at all times (see Andrew Luck), and don't have him run all the time and get killed, and you take the long view and draft STUD RT and LT and C, resign off rookie deals. You are then in position to contend for a decade or more. Even if we traded 3 1sts plus more for Watson, he is going to get hurt running, and we don't have the OL to protect him, and wouldn't have the picks to draft one.[/quote]

big fan of how this character, basically, calls anyone with an opposing view to his stupid. Then refuses to reply to anyone that asks him about his posts. classy moves.
and while i agree with some of their points...im just over reading their diatribes.
:soapbox:

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=Scalper;1276449]We could have someone graded early 2nd round. The evaluations of professional scouts often differ SUBSTANTIALLY from mock draft wankers and kool-aid drinking fans (just look at some of the ridiculous trade proposals on this board for Watson to see how much fan-speak differs from reality). Let's take a hypothetical. Your highest rated QB outside the top 2 is not one of the top 4 or 5 by common reckon. This actually happens many years. Most people rate this guy 3rd 4th round, you rate him 2nd. If only one other team sees him like you, and they draft higher 2nd round, they may snipe him and you missed oout. You think he could be a franchise QB with a bit of coaching. Do you hope he's there in 2nd or draft him in first? Or trade up late first round to then get him on 5 year deal versus 4 outside 1st round? People talk about throwing away 3 1st rounders plus more to trade for a QB, but a more realistic question, when Bill O'Brien or Vinny Cerrato or Bruce Allen or THE DAN are not your GMs, is if you see a guy you think could be a franchise QB, do you draft him one round above his ranking to make sure you get him? May depend on whether there is only 1 QB you like or several.

The classic question then becomes, there is a guy sitting there at #19 that is your highest ranked prospect. Say a few people reach on QBs, one or two head scratcher picks like Raiders or other teams often make, some players the mock draft wankers have high that scouts don't, etc., you have a guy rated #16 overall sitting there at #19. A guy you believe should be solid if not pro-bowl long term starter. This is BPA, not position dependent. Your goal is to hit on 1st round pick every year so that eventually you have enough home-grown talent that few FAs makes you a contender. Picture a well-run team that didn't make dumb trades (i.e. virtually every trade proposed by homer fans) and just kept drafting 4 more years. We have resigned Young, Sweat, Allen or Payne and lost one, and have a 1st round CB, WR, LT, QB, plus 2-3 2nd or third round picks also solid starters that were "gems." You now have a team with talent like we have on DL on all levels: OL, skill positions, LB, secondary. You are then talking about a potential contender. You never get there trading the farm for some a-hole like Watson. And, because we are building primarily through the draft, when our talent like Payne or whatever guys coming off rookie deals we can't sign goes somewhere else, we get comp picks, and then start having 10-11 picks every year like the teams that are perpetually good. You know you are working the system right when there are good players you can't afford to resign EVERY year.

You hope one of players sitting there at #19 is a LT, CB, WR, a high-leverage position. If you draft a CB, WR, LT 1st round 3 years, versus signing in FA, $40M+ cap savings, money used to resign Payne, Allen, etc. This is how good teams have money to retain some but not all talent. Maybe a MLB is #16 on your board, that franchise LT or shutdown corner is #21 and still available. Might be discussion in draft room of do you take the MLB, the lower leverage position, or a slightly less talented but still starter-caliber player ranked lower. So the question becomes, do you reach a bit for a QB you think is franchise, knowing you're reaching a bit, or stick to your board? There is no simple answer because not psychic. Some teams reach for bust QBs year after year, and could have drafted quality long-term starters instead. Some teams pick the BPA and pass up franchise QBs. These are the types of questions that real GMs are asking. And good owners. The best GMs can get these decisions right. When they decide to take the QB higher, it make take 2 or 3 iterations, but they eventually find the franchise QB. Yet they mostly draft quality starters year after year after year with higher picks that become the foundation of their team. Meanwhile Homers talk about trading 27 1st round picks for some selfish a-hole QB who is very, very good but hardly great.


There ARE franchise QBs in the draft outside the top-10, and outside the 1st round, many of them starting for NFL teams right now. Our goal should be not to mortgage the future on retreads or aholes like Watson, but rather to find a QB in the draft. Hurley never got it right, Newton has never been accurate and doesn't have the heart of a champion, he blames others rather than taking ownership. Mayhew just came from a SF team that didn't get QB right. It is probably unrealistic to think either can successfully pick a franchise QB, and RR is of course going to want to trade for the instant impact starter, that's what coaches do, they have to think about the short term especially with a turd like THE DAN standing in the wings ready to meddle. The GM is supposed to have the long view in mind, the decade plus view. I honestly believe that Smith, had Dan not meddled, would have gotten QB right long ago. This should predominate in thinking about choosing a GM, but did not. Smith almost certainly advocated less glamorous QBs that had franchise potential, but they weren't sexy glamorous marketing machine picks like those THE DAN and Allen etc. favored.

Now just imagine we commit to the hard road, the long-term road that a real GM would advocate. We spend 4 picks on QB next 3 years in draft, only 1 a first rounder. We fail at a 50% rate, end up with our franchise QB and a solid backup on rookie deal. At the end of that time, we have found a true long-term franchise QB we can count on for say the next 12 years, and maybe as much as 20. We have him on rookie deal. Then you draft, draft, draft, build around him, add just a few key FAs. You have his longevity in mind at all times (see Andrew Luck), and don't have him run all the time and get killed, and you take the long view and draft STUD RT and LT and C, resign off rookie deals. You are then in position to contend for a decade or more. Even if we traded 3 1sts plus more for Watson, he is going to get hurt running, and we don't have the OL to protect him, and wouldn't have the picks to draft one.[/quote]

Haha poor guy, you write this dissertation on why spending beaucoup draft picks on a single player is a bad idea (which I generally don't oppose) and nobody takes it seriously.

Really though, my only question is do you pronounce "mock draft wanker" old English style like "mahk draft wankuh" or is it more of the hard R style? I like to envision it's the former personally.

Re: The Too Soon 2021 NFL Draft Thread
 

[quote=mooby;1276559]Haha poor guy, you write this dissertation on why spending beaucoup draft picks on a single player is a bad idea (which I generally don't oppose) and nobody takes it seriously.

Really though, my only question is do you pronounce "mock draft wanker" old English style like "mahk draft wankuh" or is it more of the hard R style? I like to envision it's the former personally.[/quote]

Yea....they have some good points. I hate when people talk down to everyone though.
Whaaaaaccccckkkkkkkkk