Really Strange Seasons
 

Doug, the editor of pro-football-reference.com, came up with a study to determine which teams in modern NFL history were most prone to beating teams that were better than them, while losing to teams worse than them.

His post can be found [URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=332"]here[/URL].

The results are quite interesting...

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[QUOTE=GTripp0012;331062]Doug, the editor of pro-football-reference.com, came up with a study to determine which teams in modern NFL history were most prone to beating teams that were better than them, while losing to teams worse than them.

His post can be found [URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=332"]here[/URL].

The results are quite interesting...[/QUOTE]


I'm failing to see the true significance in this though. I mean, I am nicknamed "statman" and I feel that is a pretty insignificant stat.

Good post though.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

Championship.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

Jacksonville was upset 7 times last year? Ouch! It was pretty interesting that we were at the top of both lists. Those good ole unpredictable skins.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

2006 surprises me a little, but not 2000. That year we beat the top teams in the nfl, including both super bowl teams.

2 of our 4 "WOBT" wins in 06 were over 8-8 teams.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=freddyg12;331203]2006 surprises me a little, but not 2000. That year we beat the top teams in the nfl, including both super bowl teams.

2 of our 4 "WOBT" wins in 06 were over 8-8 teams.[/quote]
You could look at it the other way and say 2 of them were against playoff teams. One of which made it the NFC title game.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=jsarno;331079]I'm failing to see the true significance in this though. I mean, I am nicknamed "statman" and I feel that is a pretty insignificant stat.

Good post though.[/quote]

You are nicknamed statman?? Wow, then you must know a lot about stats!

If I send up the stat signal will you come to my rescue?

:pffff:

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=GTripp0012;331062]Doug, the editor of pro-football-reference.com, came up with a study to determine which teams in modern NFL history were most prone to beating teams that were better than them, while losing to teams worse than them.

His post can be found [URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=332"]here[/URL].

The results are quite interesting...[/quote]

I think the 2006 results are pretty interesting because it shows that the Redskins' season really could have gone differently, especially if we had caught a few of those INTs that kept getting dropped.

The stats tell the tale of a Jekyll and Hyde team. Losing to four teams we should have beaten, and beating four teams we should have lost to, that shows the Skins had the ability to play very well (see at New Orleans Saints), but lacked the consistency.

A few more caught INTs here and there could have easily taken us to 8-8. As they say in the NFL no matter how good or bad you look in a given week, you're never as good or as bad as you seem.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

That is pretty cool. Whats defined as a better or worse team, just over all record?

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=37"]This link[/URL] tells you all about the mathematical equation they use to determine team ratings, but in plain English:

[QUOTE]The Colts’ rating should equal their average point margin (which was +12), plus the average of their opponents’ ratings.[/QUOTE]

Taken further:

[QUOTE]So every team’s rating is their average point margin, adjusted up or down depending on the strength of their opponents. Thus an average team would have a rating of zero. Suppose a team plays a schedule that is, overall, exactly average. Then the sum of the terms in parentheses would be zero and the team’s rating would be its average point margin. If a team played a tougher-than-average schedule, the sum of the terms in parentheses would be positive and so a team’s rating would be bigger than its average point margin.[/QUOTE]

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=Schneed10;331209]I think the 2006 results are pretty interesting because it shows that the Redskins' season really could have gone differently, especially if we had caught a few of those INTs that kept getting dropped.

The stats tell the tale of a Jekyll and Hyde team. Losing to four teams we should have beaten, and beating four teams we should have lost to, that shows the Skins had the ability to play very well (see at New Orleans Saints), but lacked the consistency.

A few more caught INTs here and there could have easily taken us to 8-8. As they say in the NFL no matter how good or bad you look in a given week, you're never as good or as bad as you seem.[/quote]
other way around would suck though. winning 2 or 3 games. But you are right and these stats are interesting. The season last year was wierd.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=BigSKINBauer;331212]other way around would suck though. winning 2 or 3 games. But you are right and these stats are interesting. The season last year was wierd.[/quote]

I kind of think that given our level of talent, it would have been a near statistical impossibility for the team to go 2-14 or 3-13 last season.

Given that our offensive line is a major strength, with Portis and Betts both healthy going into the season, and given that this is the 2nd season for the offense in Saunders' system; I can't possibly see the offense doing worse than last season. The only way the offense could be worse is if Campbell turns it over a lot, but based on his 5 starts from last year, I don't see that happening.

Even if the offense does turn it over, the defense can't be any worse this year at taking the ball away. I think we'll catch more of those INTs this year.

This is all to say that I can't see us getting worse than last year. Absolute worst case scenario for the 'Skins in '07 is 6-10; and that's if everything goes to hell. I see us getting better, with 8-8 or higher a significant probability.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=Schneed10;331211][URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=37"]This link[/URL] tells you all about the mathematical equation they use to determine team ratings, but in plain English:



Taken further:[/quote]

Pretty cool stuff. I had never heard of pro football reference before,

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=Schneed10;331209]
The stats tell the tale of a Jekyll and Hyde team. Losing to four teams we should have beaten, and beating four teams we should have lost to, that shows the Skins had the ability to play very well (see at New Orleans Saints), but lacked the consistency.

A few more caught INTs here and there could have easily taken us to 8-8. As they say in the NFL no matter how good or bad you look in a given week, you're never as good or as bad as you seem.[/quote]

Or you could say that we played fairly consistent, but the teams that were better than us that we beat, didn't play very well that day.

Any given Sunday.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[QUOTE=Schneed10;331208]You are nicknamed statman?? Wow, then you must know a lot about stats!

If I send up the stat signal will you come to my rescue?

:pffff:[/QUOTE]

And you know me how? I have purposely stayed away from you because of your idiotic nature, and here you go again...so what was the point of your post?
Just because you disagree with me about roulette doesn't require this kind of slam.
FYI- I am nicknamed statman because of my nature to always back my points up with stats, and find flaws in people's games with statistics. Including doing a 10,000 roll study on roulette that you ignored.
So maybe it would be more appropriate to call you jackassman from now on. Well, that might be inappropriate...JAM. There you go.
Sad thing is, JAM, you can provide decent substinance to a post, but you choose too often to try to attack someone. Does it make you feel better to say things like that over a post on the internet?

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[QUOTE=mlmpetert;331215]Pretty cool stuff. I had never heard of pro football reference before,[/QUOTE]


Yeah they have all sorts of offensive statistics...hopefully some day they will get stats for the defensive players.

The people that run that site, run a baseball and a basketball site as well.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

jsarno, alittle on the sensitive side? it seemed like he was just kidding

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[QUOTE=dmek25;331281]jsarno, alittle on the sensitive side? it seemed like he was just kidding[/QUOTE]

he wasn't.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

Jsarno, I wasn't referring to your roullette thing. I was making fun of you because you referred to yourself as Statman. I found that particularly dorky and foolish, that's all.

But back to the discussion at hand. Your post called the stats, presented on the page GTripp linked to, meaningless. I'd love to know why you think so, because as a math person, I can't see the logic.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

My main beef here is you called yourself Statman, yet offered no quantitative analysis to back up your point that the stats are meaningless.

That amounts to a pointless and meaningless post, and an opinion devoid of validity.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=Schneed10;331209]I think the 2006 results are pretty interesting because it shows that the Redskins' season really could have gone differently, especially if we had caught a few of those INTs that kept getting dropped.

The stats tell the tale of a Jekyll and Hyde team. Losing to four teams we should have beaten, and beating four teams we should have lost to, that shows the Skins had the ability to play very well (see at New Orleans Saints), but lacked the consistency.

A few more caught INTs here and there could have easily taken us to 8-8. As they say in the NFL no matter how good or bad you look in a given week, you're never as good or as bad as you seem.[/quote]

We sure dropped a ton. But so did the opposition. In the end it all evens out.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=skinsfan69;331319]We sure dropped a ton. But so did the opposition. In the end it all evens out.[/quote]

Talking about INTs? I don't think anybody dropped as many as we did last year. I'd love to see some numbers on that if there are any out there.

Carlos Rogers dropped 8 or so all by himself.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

Any given Sunday boys....

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=Schneed10;331342]Talking about INTs? I don't think anybody dropped as many as we did last year. I'd love to see some numbers on that if there are any out there.

Carlos Rogers dropped 8 or so all by himself.[/quote]


I think the exact total was 9 interception dropped by Carlos Rogers.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[QUOTE=EARTHQUAKE2689;331674]I think the exact total was 9 interception dropped by Carlos Rogers.[/QUOTE]


That's not going to happen this year.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=jsarno;331677]That's not going to happen this year.[/quote]


I know I had a little talk with Mr. Rogers and said for every interception he drops I will put a piece of elephant shit in his car.

But wasnt he working with Deion this off-season. From now on every corner we get, we need to make it required that they work with Deion and Darrell Green in the off-season.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[QUOTE=EARTHQUAKE2689;331682]I know I had a little talk with Mr. Rogers and said for every interception he drops I will put a piece of elephant shit in his car.

But wasnt he working with Deion this off-season. From now on every corner we get, we need to make it required that they work with Deion and Darrell Green in the off-season.[/QUOTE]

Skrew deion...just green.
Carlos needed it.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=jsarno;331689]Skrew deion...just green.
Carlos needed it.[/quote]


What is wrong with Deion?

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[QUOTE=EARTHQUAKE2689;331691]What is wrong with Deion?[/QUOTE]

All show, not enough substance.
While he was a great CB, he was a jerk most of the time. If you're going to model youself after someone, Green is the guy to go to.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=jsarno;331706]All show, not enough substance.
While he was a great CB, he was a jerk most of the time. If you're going to model youself after someone, Green is the guy to go to.[/quote]


I meant with his ability to jump on the route. Sanders was better than green at that. But on my list they are 1-2 on the best corners of all time list.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[QUOTE=EARTHQUAKE2689;331709]I meant with his ability to jump on the route. Sanders was better than green at that. But on my list they are 1-2 on the best corners of all time list.[/QUOTE]

Sanders got burnt a lot too because he went after the interception, Green didn't get burnt very often at all, and was a great positional CB...much better than Sanders in my opinion.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=jsarno;331721]Sanders got burnt a lot too because he went after the interception, Green didn't get burnt very often at all, and was a great positional CB...much better than Sanders in my opinion.[/quote]


It is a risk/reward trait. It works for Asante Samuel and Champ last year. I am not saying he should do it every play but learn the are of anticiapting and perfecting the jump of the ball

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[QUOTE=EARTHQUAKE2689;331723]It is a risk/reward trait. It works for Asante Samuel and Champ last year. I am not saying he should do it every play but learn the are of anticiapting and perfecting the jump of the ball[/QUOTE]

Wait a second...Sanders ALWAYS went after the INT at the sacrifice of stopping the play at times...Champ is a cover corner, he will stop the play first, then look at the INT. Both Green and Champ were / are better than Deion was IMO.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=jsarno;331732]Wait a second...Sanders ALWAYS went after the INT at the sacrifice of stopping the play at times...Champ is a cover corner, he will stop the play first, then look at the INT. Both Green and Champ were / are better than Deion was IMO.[/quote]


Deion was more risk than Champ and Darrell

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[QUOTE=EARTHQUAKE2689;331735]Deion was more risk than Champ and Darrell[/QUOTE]


I know he was...and it worked for him well...a lot see him as the best ever, but I'll take champ and green any day over him. In fact, I wish Champ was still a Redskin.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=jsarno;331744]I know he was...and it worked for him well...a lot see him as the best ever, but I'll take champ and green any day over him. In fact, [B]I wish Champ was still a Redskin[/B].[/quote]


Who doesnt?

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[QUOTE=EARTHQUAKE2689;331745]Who doesnt?[/QUOTE]

True...
I just hate what these greedy players have done to the game...he should have retired a Skin.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[quote=jsarno;331753]True...
I just hate what these greedy players have done to the game...he should have retired a Skin.[/quote]


that selfish SOB.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

[QUOTE=EARTHQUAKE2689;331760]that selfish SOB.[/QUOTE]

LOL. I am actually surprised his contract hasn't handcuffed the broncos yet. It's WAAAAY too huge.

Re: Really Strange Seasons
 

They find ways around it by not paying RB's